Western Australian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday April 25th)

Best Days: This morning, exposed breaks in the South West tomorrow mornin and Monday morning, Tuesday/Wednesday in the South West, Thursday morning selected spots in the South West

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate sized S/SW swell this afternoon, easing tomorrow, smaller Sun and Mon
• Moderate E/NE winds tomorrow ahead of sea breezes, SE tending S/SW Sun
• Fresh E-E/SE winds ahead of sea breezes Mon
• Inconsistent small-mod sized W/SW swell Tue with fresh E/NE tending weaker N/NE winds
• Slightly better, inconsistent moderate sized W/SW swell later Wed, peaking Thu AM
• Strong E/NE tending weaker N/NE winds Wed
• Strong NE tending N/NW Thu

Recap

The low sitting off our coast the last two days brought with it a large increase in mid-period SW swell yesterday to 10-12ft in the South West, 4ft Mandurah and 3ft across Perth. Winds limited options to southern corners as the swell eased off steadily through the day.

Today the swell is much weaker and smaller but a fun 4-5ft across the South West with 2ft waves to the north.

This weekend and next week (Apr 26 - May 2)

As touched on in the notes earlier this week, a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell generated by a late forming polar front in our southern swell window should arrive this afternoon, pulsing the South West to 4-6ft, with easing 3-5ft sets across the South West tomorrow morning, tiny to the north.

Local winds look great with a moderate E/NE’ly ahead of sea breezes, with Sunday coming in smaller with slightly less favourable SE winds through the morning ahead of strong sea breezes.

The swell will continue to fade in size through early next week as winds swing back offshore, with a small, long-range W/SW swell due into Tuesday ahead of a slightly better increase through Wednesday afternoon/Thursday morning.

The first swell was generated by a small, relatively weak mid-latitude low that formed south-east of South Africa mid-week, with the secondary slightly better pulse generated by a broader and longer lived polar low that formed to the south of South Africa shortly thereafter.

The swells won’t really make much of an impact across the metro regions with surf to 1-1.5ft in general expected, while the South West should see Tuesday’s coming in at 3-5ft, with later Wednesday/Thursday’s coming in at a better 4-6ft.

Local winds will be fresh out of the E/NE on Tuesday, shifting N/NE and weakening into the afternoon with stronger E/NE tending N/NE winds Wednesday, less favourable strong NE tending NW on Thursday.

The shift in winds will be ahead of a strengthening mid-latitude frontal progression forming south-west of us Thursday/Friday, with an extra-large groundswell on the cards for next weekend but with onshore winds.

More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!