Poor weekend, improving next week but mostly to the north

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday October 1st)

Best Days: Perth and Mandurah Monday morning, protected spots Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday Perth and Mandurah, Friday protected spots, Saturday week

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Large, building mid-period W/SW swell late tomorrow, peaking Sun with strong W/SW tending stronger W/NW winds tomorrow, strong SW Sun, easing slightly
  • Temp low point in swell Mon AM with E/NE winds in Perth and Mandurah, NW in the South West and strengthening through the day from the NW across all locations
  • Building W/SW groundswell Mon PM with fresh W/NW winds, peaking Tue with strong S/SE tending S/SW winds (variable Perth and Mandurah early)
  • Easing swell Wed with E/NE winds in Perth and Mandurah, SW in the South West 
  • Large SW groundswell building Fri with strong S/SE-S winds, easing Sat with E/SE tending S/SW winds


Average conditions across most locations yesterday with a slow start to the day swell wise, but improving through the day with workable winds in Perth and Margs until they deteriorated through the afternoon.

Today conditions are poor across Margs with a drop in size, bumpy and lumpy in Perth and Mandurah for the dawny. Conditions have since deteriorated with increasing onshore winds.

This weekend and next week (Oct 2 - 8)

Well the weekend ahead isn't great at all for surfing as we see back to back mid-latitude fronts pushing in, bringing strong W/SW tending stronger W/NW winds tomorrow along with a late, building W/SW swell, peaking Sunday.

The strengthening winds into the afternoon and evening will be as the secondary front pushes in, with winds due to shift SW for Sunday morning, strong at dawn but abating.

Size wise, the mid-period W/SW swell that's due to build later tomorrow should peak Sunday to 6-8ft in the South West, 3ft in Mandurah and 2-3ft across Perth. Finding a quality wave will be very hard though.

It looks like we'll fall temporarily in between swells Monday morning and winds are due to swing E/NE across Perth and Mandurah, persisting from the NW in the South West and strengthening through the day across all locations.

Size wise, Perth looks to be around 2ft+, with 2-3ft waves in Mandurah and 6ft+ waves across Margs.

We should see some new, mid-period W/SW swell building into Monday afternoon ahead of a peak Tuesday morning, generated by the earlier stages of the frontal system moving in Sunday.

Today, a broad fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds are being generated east and north-east of the Heard Island region, with the swell due to come in a touch bigger and stronger than the weekend's.

Sets to a more consistent 8ft are due in the South West, 3ft+ across Mandurah and 3ft in Perth, easing through the day and smaller Wednesday.

We'll see a high ridging in on Tuesday, bringing fresh S/SE winds, strengthening from the S/SW into the afternoon. Perth and Mandurah are likely to see variable winds before those S/SW breezes kick in.

Unfortunately the South West looks to still see lingering SW winds into Wednesday morning, cleaner to the north as the swell eases further.

Similar conditions are due Thursday as the swell reaches a low point with lingering onshore winds across the South West, E/NE to the north in the morning.

Our larger swell for late in the week is still on track, with a relatively benign mid-latitude front due to spawn into a strong polar low around the Heard Island region. It'll generate a significant fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds through our south-western swell window, producing a large, long-period SW groundswell for Friday, peaking into the afternoon and easing Saturday.

At this stage it looks to be around 10-12ft+ across the South West, 3-4ft in Mandurah and 3ft across Perth with S/SE winds on Friday and then great E/SE offshore winds on Saturday. We'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!