Good swells to come, spoilt by average winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 2nd November)

Best Days: Swell magnets tomorrow morning, early Wednesday, protected spots Sunday, early Monday


Average onshore waves across the South West Saturday with tiny and lumpy conditions around Perth. Sunday was much better with a mix of new groundswells across both coasts coming in at a solid 5-6ft across the South West and 2ft in Perth with offshore winds.

This swell has eased back into today from 3-5ft and 1-1.5ft around Perth with 2ft sets around Mandurah under offshore winds again.

This week (Nov 3 - 6)

Clean conditions are due tomorrow morning, but the swell will be smaller again with the South West the only real option for a surf with inconsistent but fading 3ft+ sets.

Into Wednesday a strong new SW groundswell pulse is due to build rapidly, generated by a vigorous polar low through the southern Indian Ocean over the last few days.

There's been no change to the expected size, with exposed breaks in the South West due to build to a strong and powerful but inconsistent 6-8ft, with the chance for 10ft bombs through the mid-late afternoon. Perth should build to 2ft, with the chance for the rare 3ft bomb later in the day.

Winds should be good and light variable (tending light offshore) through the morning with moderate to fresh W/NW winds into the afternoon as the swell really powers.

As the swell eases Thursday it looks like we'll see unfavourable N/NW winds due to a weak low sitting to our west drifting slowly towards us.

A small short-range SW swell is due off this low across mainly Perth into Thursday afternoon coming in at 2ft, with the South West probably seeing 4-5ft of swell. We'll review this Wednesday though as the models diverge on the intensity and structure of this system.

Come Friday S/SE winds are expected as the low continues east with easing levels of swell.

This weekend onwards (Nov 7 onwards)

Unfortunately onshore winds are due into Saturday as size eases from Friday across the state, but a strong new long-period SW groundswell is due into Sunday along with S/SW winds.

This swell will be a result of a low pressure system drifting off South Africa being absorbed into the westerly storm track and strengthening significantly once south-west of us later this week.

A pre-frontal fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds will be closely followed by a stronger fetch of storm-force W/SW winds as the low tracks south-east through our swell window.

While the track isn't ideal, the strength of the low should produce a moderate to large long-period SW groundswell for Sunday, peaking into the afternoon to 6-8ft+ across the South West and 2ft in Perth. Winds will be from the S/SW though which is less than ideal.

Monday looks the better bet as the swell eases under variable breezes, but we'll have another look at this on Wednesday.


thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 4 Nov 2015 at 8:14am

Cape Nat picked up the leading edge of 20 seconds around 4am. A few sets showing at the coast now.. will be interesting to see how big it gets throughout the day.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Wednesday, 4 Nov 2015 at 8:54am

Getting stronger with every passing minute...

caml's picture
caml's picture
caml Wednesday, 4 Nov 2015 at 4:39pm

Big period on those wa buoys hey ben