West Australian Surf Forecast by Guy Dixon (issued Monday 28th September)

Best Days: Early on Wednesday and early for Perth and Mandurah on Thursday. 

Recap: 

A fresh swell arrived across the South West on Saturday providing clean surf in the 4-5ft range under a moderate southeasterly flow. Sunday saw this swell build furthermore to the 4-6ft range, groomed by fresh easterly breezes. Further north, Perth and Mandurah were offering clean but inconsistent sets in the 2ft range.

The weekend’s fresh swell has since faded back to the 3-4ft mark this afternoon, with a light southwesterly breeze also whipping a slight bump on top. Perth and Mandurah eased back to the 1ft range this afternoon, however a light onshore flow really hasn’t brought much impact at all, merely a slightly crumbly lip.

This week (Tuesday 29th - Friday 2nd):

The small amount of residual energy that is left over will virtually dry up on Tuesday, easing back to the 2-3ft range across the South West and 0.5-1ft for Perth and Mandurah. Apart from a period of light winds in the early morning, the lack of swell and northwesterly wind combo will probably label it a lay day, particularly across the South West. If any school holiday groms want to make the most of their time off, hit it early with a long board.

Wednesday will see a small lift in background energy to around 3-4ft across the South West however, moderate/fresh northwesterly winds will make for pretty ordinary conditions all day. Perth and Mandurah are likely to see light variable/northerly breezes early allowing for clean 1ft peaks, deteriorating as a northwesterly breeze increases in the afternoon.

The later stages of the week hold much more promising prospects of more size however.

Central and Western parts of the Indian Ocean are particularly active at the moment as a result of a strong node of the long wave trough. We have already observed 40-50kt core winds within a particularly broad southwesterly fetch west of Heard Island today. As the week progresses, this vast fetch of west/southwesterly gales will continue to move across the Indian Ocean, extending to relatively high latitudes contributing to a strong increase in size late in the week.

The broader system will lose definition as it moves east, however a lot of the swell will have already been generated. The sea-state will be well and truly active, so the weaker and less defined fetch will still lead to solid 6ft sets late on Thursday across the South West and 2ft for the metro beaches further north. The South West will be practically a write-off under a fresh north/northwesterly breeze persisting all day, however Perth and Mandurah have a good chance of seeing light offshore breezes early, before tending northwesterly in the afternoon.

Friday will see the bulk of the swell fill in, with strong surf in the 8-10ft range across the South West. Unfortunately, the wind scenario looks to be problematic. Gusty northwesterlies will severely limit options. Breezes at Perth and Mandurah will be lighter, but still prevailing from the northwest throughout the day.

This weekend and next week (Saturday 3rd - Sunday 4th onward):

A second system is looking to develop within the Heard Island region on Friday and Saturday and it’s looking good for an even larger pulse due early next week. Early indications show a southwesterly captured fetch with core winds of about 50-60kts moving in good alignment to the South West.

Following the previous system, the ocean will already be particularly active, so any swell generation is likely to be efficient. The long range forerunner should impact the South West early on Monday, with the bulk of the swell bringing the potential for 12-15ft surf later in the day, larger at the offshore bombies. A swell with this size and direction should provide 4ft surf for Perth and Mandurah.

Unfortunately, the whole weekend and early the following week is likely to be plagued by fresh northwesterly breezes, tending southwesterly for Monday’s large pulse. There will be virtually no options for a wave.