Large and onshore, small windows of cleaner conditions to the north

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Western Australia Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 23rd July)

Best Days: Every day besides Saturday around Gero


A building swell and onshore across the South West left no options for a wave yesterday, but further to the north, variable tending light offshore winds offered fun waves through the morning and into the early afternoon.

Yesterday's kick in W/SW groundswell has eased back into today, back from 6ft+ in the South West and 2ft+ in Perth with 4-6ft sets around Gero. Winds were lighter in the South West but still onshore, while further north, variable tending light offshore winds again created cleaner conditions.

This week onwards (Jul 24 onwards)

A low point in swell activity is due tomorrow morning, and this will probably the lowest the swell becomes for over a week.

There should still be fun waves on offer across the state, to 4-6ft in the South West, 2ft around Perth and 3-4ft+ around Gero. Winds unfortunately look to linger onshore from the W/SW in the South West tomorrow, while more variable winds are again due around Gero but Perth is now looking dicey with a moderate S/SW'ly likely to linger early morning. We should see this backing off through the morning though and possibly tending S/SE before reverting back to the SW into the afternoon.

A new long-range and inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due Friday morning, but this will the pre-cursor to a much stronger and larger swell Saturday. Winds will remain poor through Friday though due to an approaching front bringing strengthening N/NW winds across Margs and Perth (possibly N'ly early to the north) but Gero should see more favourable NE winds early. Swell wise, Gero should see 4-5ft waves with the offshore breeze.

Saturday's large and powerful W/SW groundswell has and is still being generated by a vigorous polar low firing up south-east of South Africa, racing west across an active sea state while generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds.

Satellite observations confirm wind speeds above 50kts and from this evening the system should start to weaken while pushing east-southeast towards us.

A large and powerful long-range W/SW groundswell will result, arriving overnight Friday and peaking Saturday morning in the South West, through the afternoon in Perth and later Saturday up around Gero.

Size wise the South West should peak in the 12-15ft range with 3-4ft sets in Perth and 6-8ft+ waves around Gero. Winds will be the main issue again, onshore and strong from the NW tending W/SW Saturday.

The swell should dip away through Sunday but winds will remain onshore from the most part out of the W-W/SW in the South West, NW around Perth and more variable around Gero.

Into next week the large swell and onshore winds will continue, with a vigorous and broad polar front pushing up into us from tomorrow through the weekend expected to generate a large SW groundswell pulse for Tuesday afternoon and Wednesday morning. Winds may tend variable from Margs north Wednesday morning but we'll review this again Friday.

Of greater importance is the possible development of a larger SW groundswell for the end of the week as winds swing offshore as it eases Friday. More on this in Friday's update.