Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday April 21st)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday morning, Sunday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Moderate + sized SW groundswell building tomorrow, holding Wed AM, easing through Thu
• Fresh, gusty S winds tomorrow AM, easing slowly through the day, then strong SE after dark
• Strengthening E/SE-SE winds Wed with a building SE windswell (outside change of lighter E-E/NE winds through the day to the east)
• Strengthening N/NE winds Thu (tending N'ly into the PM to the west)
• Moderate sized, inconsistent SW groundswell building Fri (peaking PM) with N/NW winds ahead of a strong S/SW change early PM
• Moderate sized mid-period SW swell building Sat, peaking in the evening, easing Sun
• Fresh but easing S/SW winds Sat, N/NW tending W/NW Sun
• S winds Mon

Recap

Friday’s swell eased off slowly all weekend and light, variable winds offered generally clean conditions both Saturday and Sunday.

Today the swell is small again with variable winds and workable waves for the keen across both regions. A trough will bring a strengthening S’ly change through the morning so surf now.

This week and weekend (Apr 22 - 27)

The coming days for the Surf Coast look to be a write-off as the trough moving through today shifts further east and forms a low off the NSW coast.

This will bring easing moderate to fresh S’ly winds tomorrow, lighter through the early afternoon before strengthening out of the SE later.

Strong E/SE tending SE winds will continue to create poor conditions on the Surf Coast Wednesday, though there might be a window of lighter E-E/NE winds to the east though the day.

The only other issue is the incoming SW groundswell energy, with it due to overpower most beaches tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning.

As touched on last week, a strong polar low forming south of the country yesterday has generated a pre-frontal fetch of gale to severe-gale NW winds followed by post-frontal W’ly gales.

Moderate + levels of groundswell are due from this source, building tomorrow to 4ft or so on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east, easing from a similar size Wednesday morning. There’s likely to be the odd bigger cleanup in the mix at the peak of the swell across both regions.

Thursday will be the pick though with the swell still coming in at 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east under a much better N/NE offshore that looks to strengthen through the day and shift more N to the west of Melbourne.

Into Friday, an inconsistent SW groundswell is due to fill in, peaking through the afternoon under N/NW winds ahead of trough and strong S/SW change early afternoon.

The groundswell is only due to be a slow 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets to the east, generated by a strong but thin polar low that’s currently just east of the Heard Island region. This should produce a fetch of severe-gale W’ly winds though due to the large distance between us and the coast, it’ll be very inconsistent. The peak is also due once the change hits, smaller through the morning.

We’ve then got a funky weekend of winds and swell with a flurry of relatively weak storms due to move in from the south-west from Wednesday through the end of the week, with none really producing any meaningful fetch in the gale-force strength range.

As a result the sizes and strength of the swell look only moderate in size, with an increase due through Saturday ahead of a peak into the evening, easing slowly Sunday.

The Surf Coast should see 4ft sets on Saturday and Sunday morning with waves to 6ft or so to the east but with fresh, easing S/SW winds on the former, best Sunday under a N/NW tending W/NW breeze.

A trough looks to bring a S’ly change Monday as the size eases further, but more on this Wednesday and Friday.