Increasing swell activity on the cards

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 22nd)

Best Days: Selected spots to the east tomorrow morning, Saturday morning on the Surf Coast, Monday ahead of the SW change

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small to moderate sized mid-period SW swell peaking tomorrow AM, then easing
  • Light to moderate E/SE winds east of Melbourne, S/SE to the west, shifting S/SW into the PM and strengthening
  • Gusty SW winds Fri
  • Moderate sized, mid-period SW swell building Sat PM, peaking later, easing into Sun AM
  • Light W/NW winds Sat AM, shifting S/SW late AM then strengthening
  • Slightly stronger SW groundswell for Sunday PM, peaking overnight, easing Mon
  • Light to moderate S/SE winds Sun AM, freshening into the PM
  • Strong N/NE winds Mon AM, shifting N/NW around midday ahead of a strong SW change
  • Mod-large swell possible mid-next week with S winds

Recap

Locations to the east of Melbourne offered fun waves through yesterday with variable offshore winds and 3-4ft of swell hanging in the mix, bumpier and wind affected into the afternoon.

Today a trough has brought stronger onshore winds and a weak increase in local windswell. All in all a no go.

This week and weekend (Jan 23 - 26)

Today’s onshore change is linked to a trough spawning off a stronger low that formed south-west of us yesterday. The low has generated a broad fetch of strong SW winds that should produce a lift in mid-period swell tomorrow to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east, easing through the day.

Winds will ease but only shift E/SE across locations east of Melbourne tomorrow morning with S/SE winds to the west, before shifting back to the S/SW and strengthening into the afternoon.

This will be as the next swell generating frontal system approaches, that being a healthy but fast tracking storm from the Heard Island region today.

The strength of this system has been downgraded a little from Monday, but we’re still expected to see a good fetch of gale-force W/NW winds, weakening on approach over the coming days, before clipping us Friday (bringing gusty SW winds).

The swell is still due to build through the day Saturday, increasing from 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast early, reaching the 4ft range into the afternoon, with larger 6ft+ sets to the east.

The swell looks to ease temporarily into Sunday morning, but a secondary pulse of SW groundswell is due into the afternoon/Monday morning, produced by a slightly stronger, expanding frontal system moving in on its tail.

At this stage a stronger pulse of groundswell to 4ft+ is due Sunday afternoon on the Surf Coast (smaller 3ft in the morning), with 6ft to possibly 8ft waves to the east, slowly easing from 3-4ft and 6ft respectively Monday morning.

Now, winds on Saturday morning still look good for the Surf Coast as the swell builds with a light W/NW breeze due (SW elsewhere), shifting S/SW late morning and strengthening into the afternoon.

Sunday then looks dicey with light to moderate S/SE-SE winds due across all locations ahead of fresher sea breezes, with Monday still the pick as winds swing around to the N/NE, though strong ahead of a N/NW shift early afternoon and then stronger SW change.

While being tricky thanks to the strength of the wind, this is the pick of the coming period.

The afternoon change will be linked to a burgeoning low firing up to our south-west early next week, with it due to generate what at this stage looks to be a moderate to large SW groundswell for the middle of the week.

Unfortunately a high pressure ridge moving in behind the low will bring unfavourable southerly winds, but more on this Friday.

Comments

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Wednesday, 22 Jan 2025 at 9:00am

Notes out before 9am! Just another reason why we praise your name Craigos

KARIO's picture
KARIO's picture
KARIO Wednesday, 22 Jan 2025 at 9:47am

YES !

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Wednesday, 22 Jan 2025 at 12:04pm

All hail Senor Craigos :)

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Wednesday, 22 Jan 2025 at 12:33pm

Agreed - legendary work Craigos

shetrickedme3's picture
shetrickedme3's picture
shetrickedme3 Wednesday, 22 Jan 2025 at 2:09pm

Craigos is synonymous with god in my household.
He always delivers, the banks always better when 'Os is punching out the report.
Not a coincidence. Thermal - I wish him well,
but be gone old thermal and let Craigos live,
for the boys always score when the 'os bells toll!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 22 Jan 2025 at 2:14pm

Haha.

m_riseley's picture
m_riseley's picture
m_riseley Wednesday, 22 Jan 2025 at 9:14pm

having travelled and lived in many places and read many swellnet forecasts, the VIC comments/crew are always the best!