Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday December 9th)

Best Days: Surf Coast today, tomorrow morning, Thursday morning, Friday morning, Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing SW swell from today into tomorrow, with a smaller reinforcing swell in the mix
• W/NW winds tomorrow AM, shifting S/SW and freshening late AM
• Smaller Wed AM, with a long-range, inconsistent W/SW groundswell for the PM with W/NW tending W/SW winds late AM, fresher SW into the PM
• Moderate + sized SW-S/SW groundswell building Thu, peaking later, easing Fri
• W/NW winds Thu AM, shifting fresh to strong S/SW into the PM
• W/NW winds Fri AM, shifting S/SW from late AM
• Easing swell on the weekend with variable S winds Sat AM, increasing and then fresh SE winds Sun

Recap

Saturday morning was small and clean on the beaches to the east, tiny on the Surf Coast before a cold front moved through into the afternoon with a small bump in swell. Yesterday morning was raw and small ahead of a more pronounced onshore change and building swell into the afternoon which has peaked this morning.

The Surf Coast is seeing semi-clean 3-4ft surf with onshore 6ft waves to the east. Winds are now starting to shift onshore creating deteriorating conditions. This change should be shallow and workable ahead of fresher breezes late afternoon/evening.

This week and weekend (Dec 10 - 15)

This morning’s peak in mid-period swell is expected to ease back over the coming days, with it generated by a healthy frontal progression over the weekend.

Following this progression, additional weak frontal activity is due to generate some smaller, weaker mid-period energy for tomorrow, easing into Wednesday.

The Surf Coast should maintain 2-3ft waves tomorrow with 4-5ft sets to the east and a morning W/NW breeze will create clean conditions before slipping S/SW later morning and freshening.

A drop back from 2ft+ is likely on Wednesday across the Surf Coast under a W/NW breeze, shifting W/SW later morning and freshening from the SW into the afternoon. A long-range W/SW groundswell is likely into the afternoon, but likely to no major size.

Wednesday's shift in winds will be thanks to another frontal system moving in from the west, though this looks to deepen directly south-west of us through Wednesday. A great fetch of W/SW gales forming around a low pressure centre should produce a moderate + sized pulse of SW-S/SW swell for Thursday, building through the day and peaking into the afternoon/evening.

The Surf Coast looks to come in at 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast with 6-8ft sets to the east, easing back Friday from the 4ft range Friday with 6ft+ sets to the east.

Conditions will continue to favour the Surf Coast with this swell thanks to a W/NW offshore Thursday as the swell builds, shifting fresh to strong S/SW into the afternoon, with W/NW winds Friday morning, shifting S/SW again from later morning.

Weekend surfers will unfortunately see easing levels of surf and unfavorable winds, weak S’ly on Saturday and likely locally offshore on the Surf Coast, while freshening SE winds are due on Sunday.

As touched on last week, there looks to be a bit of down time between swells into early next week ahead of some new W/SW energy mid-late next week. More on this Wednesday.