Average outlook continues

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday June 17th)

Best Days: Beaches tomorrow afternoon and Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Inconsistent, small, mid-period W/SW swell building tomorrow PM, easing Wed
  • S winds from Anglesea west, light N/NW-N to the east tomorrow
  • N/NW winds Wed, tending N-N/NE to the east
  • Tiny Thu with N/NE winds tending variable SE
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell arriving later Thu, peaking Fri with strengthening S/SW winds
  • Easing swell Sat with SW winds, possibly W/NW early Surf Coast


The exposed beaches to the east offered OK waves on Saturday with easing surf from Friday, while everywhere but the Phillip Island region and further east were average yesterday as a trough brought strong S’ly winds to the west, more variable to the east.

Today there's a mix of weak swells across all regions with onshore winds to the west, more variable to the east again.

This week and weekend (Jun 18 - 23)

As touched on last week, the coming period is very slow and not overly exciting thanks to the strong low in the southern Tasman Sea and high pressure to our west.

With this we’ve had our western and south-western swell windows shut down, with small, inconsistent levels of W/SW swell due build through tomorrow before easing slowly Wednesday.

Conditions tomorrow are a little tricky as a trough lingers in the region, bringing variable N-N/NW winds from about Anglesea further east, light S’ly to the west. Wednesday should offshore N/NW winds to the west and N-N/NE winds to the east which should favour the exposed beaches.

Size wise, the Surf Coast looks to struggle to 1-2ft tomorrow with infrequent sets reaching 3ft into the afternoon to the east, easing from a similar size on Wednesday morning.

Thursday looks smaller along with morning N/NE winds.

Our W/SW groundswell for the end of the week is still on track, but so are the average winds, as the remnants of the swell generating system moves in and across us Friday.

Currently a good fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds are being generated with it due to weaken while moving under the country over the coming days.

A moderate sized swell is due, with it expected to arrive later Thursday and peak Friday to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

Strengthening S/SW winds will unfortunately create poor conditions Friday with Saturday also looking dicey as the swell eases thanks to a moderate SW breeze. We may see it tip W/NW for a period but with easing 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast.

Longer term mid-latitude storm activity looks to continue with no major swell due in the medium-term. Check back Wednesday for an update on when things might change.


Sheep go to heaven's picture
Sheep go to heaven's picture
Sheep go to heaven Monday, 17 Jun 2024 at 5:16pm

Sounds a lot like la Nina again .....
Very similar outlook to a couple of years ago

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 8:34am

Yeah it does, but we're in the neutral phase still.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 9:26am

Interesting we're in neutral and it's still absolute shite. From memory, this autumn/winter is even worse than 2022. We've had 1 fun month in April, since then it's completely turned off aside from a handful of random days here and there. Long range looks like we'll get into July and still nothing of interest for the SC

Nolan's picture
Nolan's picture
Nolan Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 12:33pm

You drive!

The world looks much brighter beyond the surf coast bubble.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 12:50pm

Haha nice vid. Getting in the car and driving would be easier without the work and home commitments... but appreciate the tip.

Nolan's picture
Nolan's picture
Nolan Wednesday, 19 Jun 2024 at 10:07am

Yes, life does have a habit of getting in the way of picking the eyes out of it. First world problem hey?

Fostersman's picture
Fostersman's picture
Fostersman Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 12:43pm

Creg please we need you to dig deep. Find the swell.

JB1's picture
JB1's picture
JB1 Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 12:49pm

...on the bright side... no crowds ha ha

sam_2's picture
sam_2's picture
sam_2 Tuesday, 18 Jun 2024 at 6:10pm

Dx3: looking more like a typical lead up to Christmas..Fosterman: With that permanent low stationed in the Tasman it aint around here youre gonna find a decent wave.. http://www.bom.gov.au/australia/charts/4day_col.shtml

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 19 Jun 2024 at 2:24pm

This is a great forecast and season to be recovering from injury in...

glass half full I guess

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Wednesday, 19 Jun 2024 at 2:54pm

Hear hear!