Make the most of today

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday April 1st)

Best Days: Today exposed beaches, Sunday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small to tiny tomorrow with strong W/NW tending W/SW-SW winds after lunch
  • Small-moderate sized SW windswell for later tomorrow, easing Wed with early W/NW winds, shifting fresh S mid-late AM
  • Small-moderate sized, mid-period SW swell building Wed, with a slightly better pulse for Thu
  • Mod-fresh S/SE winds Thu
  • Moderate sized mid-period SW swell Fri with gusty SE winds
  • Stronger E/SE winds Sat with a small-moderate sized SE windswell
  • Moderate sized SW groundswell for Sat PM, easing Sun with N/NE tending N/NW winds, then W/SW into the PM


The weekend played out to plan with some inconsistent mid-period SW swell providing slow 2-3ft sets across the Surf Coast Saturday morning with clean conditions, 4ft to the east.

A flukey reinforcing pulse of SW groundswell provided similar sized but also inconsistent surf into the afternoon and yesterday morning with the beaches coming in cleanest.

Today the swell is on the ease but nice and clean again, best across the exposed beaches.

This week and weekend (Apr 2 - 7)

The current swell will continue to drop in size tomorrow with nowhere to recommend as an approaching trough brings strong W-W/NW winds, shifting W/SW-SW into the afternoon. The Surf Coast will be clean but tiny in the morning.

A quick spike in localised windswell will be brought with this change, easing Wednesday morning from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east, but at the same time, some new, inconsistent mid-period SW swell is due to arrive.

This is being generated by the first bunch of polar frontal activity that's currently to the south of Western Australia.

Infrequent 3ft sets are likely from this source on the Surf Coast magnets into the afternoon (smaller early), 3-5ft to the east along with an early W/NW breeze that looks to shift to the S'th mid-late morning. With the mix of windswell and small improvement in wind direction, expect lumpy, average waves for a short period on the Surf Coast.

Winds will linger out of the S/SE on Thursday, moderate in strength with a touch more size thanks to the next pulse of mid-period SW swell filling in from under the country. We're looking at waves to 3ft+ on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east but bumpy and average.

Into Friday, our strongest pulse of mid-period SW swell is due to peak, generated by stronger, near gale-force W/NW winds moving along the polar shelf, south of Western Australia tomorrow.

This should provide better 4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets (3-4ft elsewhere), with 5-6ft sets to the east but with fresh SE winds, favouring nowhere. These freshening winds will be thanks to a deepening low off the East Coast drifting south towards Tasmania through the weekend.

This will also add some SE windswell to the mix, with stronger E/SE winds on the cards for Saturday providing even more size. There'll also be a mix of easing SW swell from Friday, along with some new SW groundswell arriving into the afternoon, generated by strengthening gale-force W/NW winds projecting under Western Australia Wednesday/Thursday.

Size wise the groundswell should build to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast but with 2-3ft of SE windswell in the mix, easing from a similar if not smaller size Sunday morning.

Winds on Sunday look to improve as the low off the East Coast continues south and a trough moves in from the west, bringing N/NE tending N/NW winds ahead of a W/SW change. With this, locations to the east look best early, cleaner to the west through the day ahead of the change.

Following this troughy weather, we're looking at a more active westerly stormy track for next week with hopefully favourable winds from the western quadrant. The models diverge regarding this though so check back here Wednesday for the latest.


Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Monday, 1 Apr 2024 at 3:25pm

So which day do think will be the best to finish Bells, Craig. Friday with the stronger S-Easterly doesn't look too appealing even with the bit bigger size.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 1 Apr 2024 at 3:37pm

Probably Thursday as Wednesday looks weak, all over the place and only clean on the faces for a short window.

only-sams's picture
only-sams's picture
only-sams Monday, 1 Apr 2024 at 5:11pm

Proper surfed out honestly. Fun waves all weekend everywhere but the contest.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Monday, 1 Apr 2024 at 7:05pm

And that contest has been locked in at bells till at least 2028. Backed by the VIC government. Just saw it on the news .
Mobile my ass. Winki is as far as they go now.