Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday March 8th)

Best Days: Today ahead of sea breezes, Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Thursday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Slowly easing swell tomorrow with N/NE winds, freshening during the day and tending N at times (likely N/NW-N into the PM to the west)
• Smaller Sun with fresh N/NE winds, tending S'ly to the west through the PM
• Moderate sized W/SW-SW groundswell for later Sun, peaking Mon AM, easing steadily with local offshore winds, holding most of the day
• Easing swell Tue with strong but easing S winds
• Moderate + sized SW groundswell Wed with S/SW winds, easing Thu with variable morning winds

Recap

The surf was small and bumpy across all locations yesterday morning, building through the afternoon but with freshening southerly winds. Today our better pulse of mid-period W/SW swell has filled in with 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets to the east but with bumpy conditions to the west, cleaner to the east.

Winds are due to shift E/NE-NE through the morning, creating cleaner conditions across all locations before S/SE-SE sea breezes kick in through the afternoon.

This weekend and next week (Mar 9 -15)

Today's W/SW swell energy will have a bit of longevity to it, thanks to the progression that generated being two staged elongated.

This should maintain 3ft sets across the Surf Coast into tomorrow morning, 4-5ft to the east, with great N/NE winds, freshening through the day and tending N'ly at times to the east and N/NW-NW to the west during the day, back to the N/NE later.

This will create a full day of great surf on the beaches.

Sunday looks smaller and conditions windy but clean to the east, gusty from the N/NE most of the day ahead of an evening S'ly change as a trough moves in from the east. The Surf Coast will see the change arriving early, more into the early-mid afternoon but initially weak.

Size wise, the Surf Coast will be smaller and to 2ft, with 3-4ft sets to the east.

Now, later in the day, some new W/SW groundswell is due to arrive, ahead of the pulse of the energy Monday. The source of this swell is a rapidly deepening mid-latitude low under the country this evening and early tomorrow.

A tight and fast moving fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds (at its core) are due to be projected through our western and then south-western swell windows, generating a short-lived pulse of groundswell.

The peak looks to be overnight Sunday but Monday should pulse to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east, easing quickly through the day.

Winds look great for both locations and N/NW to the west, N/NE to the east, and holding most of the day.

These favourable winds will be ahead of a trough which is due to move in at dawn Tuesday, bringing strong S'ly winds, easing through the day as Monday's swell continues to ease.

Our secondary pulse of SW groundswell for Wednesday is on track, but so are persistent S/SW winds, with Thursday looking a possibility of cleaner conditions as the trough moving through Tuesday stalls to our east.

Coming back to the swell, and a slow moving polar low forming just east of the Heard Island region today should generate a moderate + sized pulse of groundswell energy that should come in at 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east, easing back from 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively Thursday. We'll have a clearer idea on the local winds and conditions Monday though so check back then for an update. Have a great weekend!