Fun swell to end the week with workable, light morning winds

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday January 10th)

Best Days: This morning, tomorrow morning, Friday morning, Tuesday morning on the beaches

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Inconsistent, moderate sized W/SW swell building tomorrow, peaking Fri
  • Light, variable W/NW winds to the west tomorrow morning, variable S/SW-S to the east, increasing from the S late AM, then fresher into the PM
  • Pre-dawn S/SE winds Fri, tending NE through the AM ahead of freshening S/SE sea breezes into the PM
  • Easing swell Sat and Sun with strengthening S winds Sat, strong S-S/SE on Sun
  • Building SE windswell Mon with strengthening E/SE tending SE winds
  • Easing SE windswell and background SW swell Tue with NE tending SE winds

Recap

The beaches to the east offered decent conditions yesterday morning with a bit more east in the wind and good 3ft+ sets while the Surf Coast remained bumpy and lumpy with the cross-shore wind.

The swell is a touch smaller today but super clean to the east and coming in at 2-3ft, cleaner on the Surf Coast as well but to a smaller, weaker 2ft on the sets.

This week and weekend (11 - 14)

Winds are looking better tomorrow morning for a short period with a light W/NW offshore to the west, variable S/SW-S to the east before a trough brings a shallow S'ly change through the late morning, freshening from the S/SE into the afternoon.

The swell should be slowly building from the W/SW, with a peak due Friday as a secondary pulse of W/SW energy fills in.

The source of these swells was and still is back to back fetches of strong W/SW winds moving through our western swell window, developing to the south-west of Western Australia on the weekend and now continuing south of the Bight today.

We should see fun sized surf building on the Surf Coast tomorrow to 2-3ft through the afternoon and 4-5ft to the east (smaller in the morning), with Friday seeing consistent 3ft waves on the Surf Coast (likely bigger one magnets) with 5-6ft sets to the east.

Winds are due to improve on Friday morning with pre-dawn S/SE winds due to tend NE through the morning, variable late morning ahead of freshening S/SE sea breezes.

The surf is likely to be lumpy though improving to the east, lumpy and bumpy on the Surf Coast but doable for the keen.

The weekend and early next week are still looking poor as a trough brings a more robust S'ly change Saturday, strengthening through the day with easing levels of W/SW swell.

Strong S-S/SE winds will persist into Sunday with some localised windswell due to build, though to no major size, with Monday seeing gusty E/SE tending strong SE winds. This looks to generate a bit more SE windswell for the Surf Coast, easing Tuesday under NE winds.

The Surf Coast looks to be 2ft or so, with background SW energy to 3ft to the east.

Longer term the outlook is divergent regarding the development of a broad low to the west through next week, so more on this Friday.

Comments

damienrdrew's picture
damienrdrew's picture
damienrdrew Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 11:57am

Hey Craig, will the swell tomorrow morning on the Surfcoast be any stronger than this morning or won't it build until late morning / afternoon? Would you recommend clean but hardly breaking tomorrow morning or bigger but on shore on the Surfcoast Friday morning?

branda's picture
branda's picture
branda Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 12:12pm

Hi Damien
To become an experienced surfer, you need to make mistakes. Choosing the wrong day or time to surf is part of it.
You will be better for the experience.
No different to getting flogged when your skills aren’t up to the swell or conditions.
You are always a bit more aware of what and when to do next time.
I think Craig has given us enough information to work with.
Have a great day LG

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 12:17pm

Indeed.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 2:28pm

Life is a mystery. Everyone must stand alone. I hear Craig call Vic's forey. And it feels like... home.

MidWestMonger's picture
MidWestMonger's picture
MidWestMonger Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 4:32pm

Wow, wise words VJ
Just like a dream, (oh-oh) you are not what you seem

shetrickedme3's picture
shetrickedme3's picture
shetrickedme3 Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 10:13am

As Nat Young said regarding the difference between people who grow up surfing in pools vs. those who grow up surfing in the ocean, pool surfers will never know the feeling of getting up pre-dawn, driving somewhere, and getting skunked. Getting skunked is part of being a surfer. Ever since I heard that quote it's changed my perspective on getting skunked. It makes the good sessions even better.

So don't be afraid to get skunked Damien, it's good for you

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 12:50pm

SAM staying positive for the foreseeable but at least heading in the right direction.

damienrdrew's picture
damienrdrew's picture
damienrdrew Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 1:29pm

Fair point Branda. I could have worded my question better. I don't expect Craig to tell me which spot or time to surf. I think we can all get enough information from Craigs forecast to work out when and where to surf most of the year, but I do think Craig could give a bit more insight into what the most dominant swell will be on the Surfcoast when we have these extended runs of SE wind swell mixed into weak SW swells and communicate that clearly and not cryptically. My observations on the ground are that the SE influence seems to be stronger than what the forecast suggests on the Surfcoast and much less so on the Eastcoast. So what I really wanted to know was when will this new SW swell start to dominate and become the primary swell component for the Surfcoast.
Please take my next point as constructive criticism and it would be good to get some feedback from other swell net users on this. I think the key information most of us want from the extended forecast is what the swell size, direction and wave period will be for each day (am & pm) along with what the wind direction and strength will be in the morning and the timing of an onshore change. Craigs written forecast often does not match the model generated graphic forecast on swell net and this is why I read it. It is usually much more accurate. However Craig often throws in quite a lot of technical information about the source of these swells but at the expense of clearly communicating this information. Would other users appreciate less tech talk and a more clear, day by day breakdown of conditions in these reports? Also given the number of Victorian Swellnet subscribers, is there a case for separate East Coast and Surfcoast extended forecast notes? I work in a highly technical field and my natural inclination was to put lots of technical detail into reports or papers I write, but helpful editors have often pointed out that this reduces the clarity of what the reader actually needs to know. Cheers

Shaqdi's picture
Shaqdi's picture
Shaqdi Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 1:49pm

Nup. We all love Craig's forey

jpful1's picture
jpful1's picture
jpful1 Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 3:27pm

I think Damo is making a good point here. We're rusted on swellnet subscribers. We love it. It's a community. But nothing is ever perfect, and there's always room for improvement, and the way the forecast is explained is no exception. Like Damienrdrew says, I think it would help if there was a day by day explanation, alog the lines of, "Friday 12 Feb: 3-4 foot on the exposed beaches, with early clean winds between E and NE, likely turning cross/onshore early afternoon". The detailed analysis that appeals to the surfing-nerd (no negative connotations) can still be included for those that are interested in reading and self-educating. Start with the end in mind. Surely objective 1 is to provide an easily digestible surf forecast. Damo's suggestions will go a long way to achieving that.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 2:02pm

Damien - "constructive feedback" would be a better term - no need to criticise.
I know the waves have been bad of late, but no need to take it out on Craig. Usually we turn on each other, not Craig.
Love your Forecaster Notes Craig - they're the main reason I subscribe.
Keep up the good work.

Seabiscuit's picture
Seabiscuit's picture
Seabiscuit Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 2:05pm

Yeah nah Craigos’ foreys are spot on.

I believe your issue is with Huey, not Craigos.

jpful1's picture
jpful1's picture
jpful1 Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 3:32pm

I agree with Damien. It's basically about the way the forecast is formatted. We can love swellnet and be grateful for craig's work and passion, but still have a view about how to make things better.

You'll agree that if you're reading a report for work, or a medical report on your blood tests, or just about anything, it helps if the key information is articulated clearly in a systematic, sequential order. ABC, 123.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 3:59pm

With all due respect Damien, rubbish call. Craig's forey's are not only spot on 99% of the time (I ignore the models which often seem off beyond swell period & direction), he provides just the right amount of detail whilst still allowing some mystique and local scoping of conditions to occur. Your silver platter request would actually be shit as even more crew would flood the lineups at the specific times you're asking Craig to tell you to go surf. Not to forget we also have an abundance of surf cams to check also.

Play on Craigos. Just give Huey a little nudge will ya

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 7:11pm

Yeah I’m with you Dx3. I reckon Craig’s foreys cover all that we need without spoon-feeding too much.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 7:35pm

Yep, ok to ask the odd question here and there I think but definitely don’t want his forey to have even more girth and power than it already does.
Less is more when it comes to foreys sometimes

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 9:28pm

Hahaha

It’s not the size of the forey that counts, it’s what you do with it. Everyone knows that…

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 5:40am

Haha.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 4:08pm

All comments taken on board :)

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 4:23pm

Even the Madonna lyrics?

JB1's picture
JB1's picture
JB1 Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 8:49pm

They were good vj

JB1's picture
JB1's picture
JB1 Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 8:53pm

You are kicking goals consistently Craig. Personally, reckon the less information the better. If surfers can't determine where and when to be, all the better.

Get up early, do the miles, earn the smiles.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 4:23pm

With regard to when the W-SW swell fills in, in the absence of a set time one could look on the Pt Nepean buoy for primary and secondary swells to see the SE swell and the new W-SW one, and particularly for a long period beginning of the swell to register - then it's time to get in the car.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 4:29pm

let's keep what we can to ourselves VJ... now just don't mention the wait time between spikes and it hitting our coasts ploiseee mate

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Wednesday, 10 Jan 2024 at 8:38pm

Like all foreys, I think Craig’s forey is adaptable and malleable and reveals what it needs to, when it needs to.

RockyIsland's picture
RockyIsland's picture
RockyIsland Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 7:47am

As a Grom we used to use our terry towelling board covers to analyse surf conditions..
If they were wet and soggy it was raining and onshore.
If they were light and fluffy and blowing to the surf it was off shore.
If they were mouldy we hadn't been surfing for ages, no swell.
If they were salty and crusty we were surfing a lot, heaps of swell.
Geeze we even used to use them as sleeping bags.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 7:51am

Best barometer for surf ever!

firthball's picture
firthball's picture
firthball Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 12:08pm

Everyone obviously loves the reports but they could have greater clarity. Sometimes I have to read it a couple of times to ascertain what the days forecast is. Sometimes I don't fully know because there is either a detail omission, or the descriptor is linked to another days status and it is unclear.

Tables, bold text, headings, division into days of week and linear conclusions could help.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 12:23pm

Yep, true.

adam12's picture
adam12's picture
adam12 Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 3:04pm

Just read thru this.
Sometimes think SN admin must read what the Vicco's have to say/ask, roll their eyes and wonder about us Mexicans.
(Probably the same reaction to some of my own posts on the forums to be honest.)
Yo Damien, there was a time when we all had no fkn clue what the fk was going on apart from winds and tides, then years of uploading confusing BoM swell charts on a fax machine that gave few answers anyway, Cost more doing that back then than a monthly swellnet sub. Swell was always a crapshoot until you laid eyes on it or had a mate to ring, until old mate John Sparra Pyburne got his phone service going. Sometimes it was flat, sometimes 8ft. Part of the fun and education back then. Part of being a local somewhere was catching up with the boys at a dawn lookout. Not anymore, we check the cams. I miss those days and fortunately live somewhere the (old now) boys still do it, out of habit and I can still get that, although I'm usually too lazy and just check the cams.
We've also got spots that handle, some even love the SE swell direction/bit of east peak action. Seek and find bro.
You are very lucky that you get a heads up these days. If it's confusing to you, or not specific enough it's down to you. Re read it and leave Craig, and Ben when he's on deck, out of it.
Like the boys above said, getting skunked will teach you a lot.
Never had an issue with Craig's forey. (Now that's a sentence I could've worded better).
Don't change Craig, don't change.

Dumai's picture
Dumai's picture
Dumai Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 3:50pm

Or you could just learn how to do things yourself and not rely on others.

damienrdrew's picture
damienrdrew's picture
damienrdrew Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 5:43pm

Thanks for the feedback and keeping the discussion mostly respectful. Just for context I’ve been surfing since 1982 and picked up a copy of Richard Loveridge’s Victorian surf guide when I got my P’s in 1987. I used it as my bible for years and managed to surf most of the spots in that book over the years and explore plenty of spots in between. The pages of that book are filled with notes and it’s still in the glovebox of my car. Like most Victorian surfers my age I’ve put in the time and have a pretty good idea of where will be worthwhile to surf for any given swell, tide and wind combo. I just want the report to be better written to make that information clear. If people love the romance of not knowing, then why are you subscribing to Swellnet? I never meant this as a personal attack on Craig, but Swellnet probably has a minimum of 2000 Victorian subscribers, which equates to roughly $1200 for every forecast note and nothing ever improves and evolves without review, reflection and feedback. If anything, at least this discussion has highlighted the diversity of views among subscribers. Most of the pushback about this idea seems to stem from the fear that this will increase crowds at your favourite spot, but I’d argue that it’d probably be the opposite and if anything would probably help novice surfers choose more suitable surf locations than they currently do. Urban sprawl and improved road infrastructure have more to do with increasing crowds than better forecasting notes. That's me done and I hope you all get some waves.
Cheers

kirwoods's picture
kirwoods's picture
kirwoods Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 8:07pm

I tend to agree that there is room for tweaks with the forecasts. Have loved the website since day dot and will always subscribe regardless, however I would much pefer a more detailed forecast that's sent twice a week.. say Monday and then Thursday... Craigos defo seems to get a bit stale churning out 3 foreys a week for Vicco

MidWestMonger's picture
MidWestMonger's picture
MidWestMonger Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 8:12pm

There was also historic pushback from surfcoast residents who clearly disliked forecasts that told everyone what day and time to go down there. Leaving cryptic hints may be the only way to keep everyone happy?

branda's picture
branda's picture
branda Thursday, 11 Jan 2024 at 8:26pm

correct MWM