Pumping weekend ahead
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 26th May)
Best Days: Tomorrow, Sunday, Monday morning, Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday (afternoon exposed beaches), Friday, Saturday morning
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Moderate sized SW swell Sat AM, with a stronger increase in size due later in the day
- Strong NW winds Sat
- Large SW groundswell Sun AM, with a much larger SW groundswell building late afternoon/evening
- Gusty N/NW tending weaker W/NW winds Sun
- Large easing SW groundswell Mon with gusty NW winds, shifting W/SW-SW into the PM
- Moderate sized + swell Tue, easing with strengthening N/NW tending NW winds
- Smaller Wed with gusty NW winds
- N/NW tending N/NE winds with smaller surf Thu
- Moderate sized + SW swell Fri with strong N/NE winds
- Easing surf Sat with N/NW tending S/SW winds
Recap
Slow, windy, small surf through yesterday coming in at 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast, best on the beaches early, then the reefs. To the east there was a window of OK conditions for the keen, deteriorating through the day.
Today we've got a building mid-period W/SW swell with mixed 3ft waves on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east with W/NW winds. The swell should strengthen a little more through the day as winds hold out of the W/NW.
This weekend and next week (May 27 – May 2)
Today's building mid-period W/SW swell will strengthen a little more into tomorrow morning, generated by a broad frontal system which pushed in overnight and is still generating W/SW winds to our south-west today.
This should come in at 3-4ft on the Surf Coast (4ft magnets) and 6ft to the east along with strong NW winds that will persist all day.
Later in the afternoon stronger levels of bigger mid-period swell may be seen, ahead of a peak in groundswell Sunday morning.
This is being generated by a great fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gales swinging up from a position south of Western Australia, nearing closer tomorrow as a much more significant polar fetch projects north-east.
Late in the day sets above 4ft are likely on the Surf Coast but Sunday morning will see strong 5-6ft sets on the magnets, 4-6ft generally across the region with 8ft sets on the exposed beaches to the east.
Winds will have a touch more north in them on Sunday morning, gusty and N/NW before shifting W/NW into the afternoon and easing a little. This will create excellent conditions that will hold all day on the reefs.
Now, what are we expecting into the afternoon?
As touched on in Wednesday's update, the timing of a much more significant, oversized pulse of SW groundswell into the afternoon looks later rather than earlier.
The formation of a severe-gale fetch pushing up on top of the active sea state generated by the pre-frontal W/NW winds is a little slower and in line with what EC was forecasting.
This means we'll see the swell arriving later rather than earlier, with the period front forecast to enter Bass Strait during the afternoon, kicking late in the day.
The swell front will be defined and strong with 8ft sets more than likely before close of play on the Surf Coast, 10ft to the east, though peaking under darkness.
Monday morning will still provide plenty of size with large, easing sets from 8ft on the Surf Coast, 10ft to the east along with gusty NW winds, shifting W/SW and then SW into the afternoon.
It's worth noting rogue 10ft sets are likely when the swell arrives and eases on the Surf Coast magnets so only paddle out if prepared to wear these on the head.
Monday's change will be linked to a secondary mid-latitude front racing in behind the significant low, bringing some additional mid-period SW swell for the afternoon Monday, slowing the easing trend.
Tuesday looks great all day with strengthening N/NW tending NW winds and easing surf from 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east. Wednesday will become smaller again and persistent, gusty NW winds will create clean conditions.
Moving into the end of the week and we'll see a strengthening frontal progression firing up under the country Tuesday/Wednesday, with a great fetch of W/SW gales due to generate a moderate+ sized pulse of SW swell for Friday.
It looks like winds will favour the beaches for a period on Thursday as winds shift from N/NW to NE in between swell pulses, with funky, strengthening N/NE winds on Friday along with the new swell as a mid-latitude low wanders in from the west.
The size of the swell looks to come in at 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east, easing Saturday with N/NW winds ahead of a S/SW change.
We'll have a closer look at this on Monday though with plenty to work through before then. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Hey Craigos, did you post the east coast forey on here by mistake? You're a tease. I'm going back to bed to dream of good surf :)
What's the best way to prepare for wearing 10ft bombs on the head i wonder....
Stay off the booze tonight is all I got.
Unless you want to guarantee it happening.
Wearing a 10fter on the head can be a good way to start the session. Blows off the nerves/cobwebs and all going well you'll pop up a few seconds later thinking 'Alright! That wasn't that bad!!'
Assuming:
You dodge the lip detonation
The hold down is not too bad
The sweep hasn't sucked you down to the cave at winki
Your board hasn't collected you
And your leash has held.
But yeah...not drinking and being in good shape is a solid start.
I've been detonated solidly a couple of times this Autumn. A proper one can really rattle you!
I got detonated a few times this last weekend here and felt rattled, was still shaking when I got to the car- which felt really odd.
turned out I had Covid.
Anyway, sorry crew, just loitering in the Vicco section because there is no action over here, for a change.
Bout to say, this is the most active I’ve seen you in these nether regions
holding ya breath is pretty good ey
Have you tried exhaling? It’s kinda next level. Kinda same same but different
Still practicing inhaling....
Fair to say SC back in business ?
Indeed!
Good luck this weekend! NZ sends best wishes :-)
Pity the bulk of that next swell will peak in the night.
Would have been good to see pics of it at its biggest to see how big it gets to.
Gee another forecast....another round of positive comments with no whinging.
Almost like pumping surf = happy surfers!?
Next week - cue complaints of crowds?
When it’s 8-10ft I don’t think crowds are ever are factor.
The wowza of the most recent forecasts is just how long an event it is, and how offshore. Been pacing self, good so far, couple of bumps/bruises from board/sore muscles but ready for more. Good luck and have fun all.
Craig - when the big swell arrives on Sunday, why would it be that the bigger waves arrive as the swell arrives?
I reckon it’s those higher period forerunners gonna pack some good southern juice
What I will say, the last 2 weeks has been farkin brutal on my ability to be productive in life. And it’s not letting up anytime soon. Getting nothing done haha
Ha! Productivity ground to a halt here. There will be time afterward, when Craig goes on holiday again.
Looks to be a classic week ahead indeed!
Think I need to do a nervous poo already
On the cook for the state indigenous titles
Nice!
Insane! Thanks heaps for taking and sharing these Ruckus. Legend!
That looks absolutely epic there today.
Great shots, Ruckus. Particularly that last one!
Cheers Bankref, plenty happening!
thanks for doing that ruckus, such a shame it's not being broadcast.
No problems fellas. Satellite wind speeds and sea swell heights exceeding modelled
expectations. Could get wild this arvo
Definitely a solid kick in size where I was surfing at 12:20ish....cracking session.
Spot on. I’m just in and felt like a switch was flicked out there about an hour ago as proper sets started to roll through. Off to watch the show now at Bells and Winki
Watch Surf ranch comp or the Wink Cam?
No contest.
confirming, 10/10 waves today
CS just nudged 18 seconds!
Swell proper hasn’t even hit yet! Due in 5-6 hours
Cooking!!!
Looks 8ft now?
Looks like one of the all time days of surfing down there.
Easy
Save some for tomorrow please Huey!
Craig or someone tech savvy can you pls post a still from the Winki cam of that set at about 2:14pm?
Cheers LD. So big!
BTW as I was coming in this morning there was a guy paddling out in boardies and what looked like a thin wettie top!
Wim hof
lol
Wetty tops in big surf are the worst!
Water in the sleeves when ya caught inside is horrible feeling.
Huge!
Still be some sets loitering around in the morning you think Craigos?
100%
Just watched a guy get a solid 10 footer out wide at bells on the camera
Impressive readings
Yep still very large tomorrow AM.
Wow insane. Can imagine there'll start to be some irregular but extra large cleanup sets start coming through towards dark.
Crazy to think a secondary bigger swell is on the way. 18 sec periods have only hit the west side of the cape.. can’t be too far off though :)
Just saw a big rogue one clean up the lineup at Bells on the camera Ruckus. Living vicariously through the camera at the moment. Even going off at the skis. Hopefully a few more blacken out the horizon before dark. Would be spooky out there at the moment i reckon.
Above my pay grade got a quieter one down the coast a bit. Have a tweaked neck running into my left shoulder and arm. Not ideal.. back in the hood yip (as a spectator)
yep i'd be seeking quieter corners too. Hope the neck heals fast. Enjoy the sunset show!
Defo a few bombs coming through on dusk and just set after set after set. They just kept coming. Glassy too just crazy. Really nice vibe, carpark crowd hooting & cheering any barrels made or not & heavy drops
What's with the fucken jetskis at Winki with heaps of crew out paddling?????
I watched and they were just giving everyone lifts not towing if that's what you mean
Everyone, or their mates?
Yeah not sure, I heard a few fellas saying they got lifts with them but not sure if they were mates or not
yeah right cheers Tommy. Just seems crazy you get the glassiest cleanest conditions of the year and then you have jetski's creating wake on their way back out. It's not that hard to paddle back out. But jetskis just make me grumpy in general at pointbreaks so maybe it's just me, i dunno. Dont reckon they're needed there.
Yeah that's fair, I think they were being pretty concious from what I could see, and with the sweep it would have been pretty helpful. But it's when every dude and his dog goes out and gets one and those problems become very real. I reckon these guys must have just stayed out after the comp maybe to lend a hand
ahh ok..fair enough i suppose.
Like you said, as long as it doesn't become every man and his dog.
Sounds like they were pretty aware of not getting in the way so good on em.
Saw one bloke attempt a step off wide at winki but ate shit. Suffer in your jocks. Otherwise they seemed to be sitting pretty wide, ferrying occasionally not many ski wakes on waves thankfully
Some of the biggest crowds I’ve seen in WP, didn’t even look that good. The bay is a funny ol place
Pretty cool. I told my brother in law (who doesn't surf) to jump in the car and drive down from Geelong to check it out. He's been to Bells but not with proper swell. I just got a call from him and he was completely blown away. Said he's never seen anything like it. The extra icing on top was that he took his dad with him who's had some health issues and he's never seen anything like it too. Could hear the awe in his voice as he watched from the Winki lookout as waves roped down the reef, sun sparkling up the face. Pretty cool!
Awesome!
That’s the ticket
that's frikn brilliant!
Sensational. Good on ‘em.
That's so good.
All time shots. Anyone want to put a size on the 5th pic (the guy with the yellow board)? Absolute beast of a wave.
Quick check for the late at the local showed very, very big waves.
Biggest I've seen it in a long time...was easy 6-8ft.
Went for a late session and stayed out till it was pretty much dark, definitely kicked up again in the last 3/4hr of light. Epic day, best for years I reckon.
Surfed a spot my lesser security clearance allows at about 2-4 on incoming tide past about mid way and even there, there were moments when the building swell had a fit for a couple of minutes and got cleaned up. Some good fun well overhead rides, and a detonation or two inside.
Went down for a watch later and whoa, there were moments in half hour before dark where it stood up about half way to horizon and then just kept standing up all the way in to the reefs. Some great waves for the crew out there!
One thing I noticed where I was was smaller bumps preceding the bigger set waves - I figured this was the difference between periods of underlying swell train and bigger sets of greater period. Many didn't have this, and so the bottom dropped out of them as they stood up, fun!
:)
Crazy to say but it’s just starting to bump again now across PN, CS & CDuC. There’s more coming! Impressive
Unreal!
Loved you're on the ground coverage. Cheers!
No probs SR
Probably the biggest one I saw all day
Holy moly. What a bomb! Great shot.
Geez can you imagine what it's doing right now as it peaks if there were these coming through today.
Damn!
Cheers for sharing.
Huge!!
Following frame. I think the one behind it bigger :-0
Really was something else yesterday, Swell had different moods throughout the day but that late arvo session was a strange one, sort of a calmness about the bells / winki stretch.. Never seen anything like it been at that size and super glassy. High tide & winds possibly taking some aggression out of it. Look playful and fun but XL for that stretch
great photo, great surfing
Winds look to hold out of the W/NW all of tomorrow, no W/SW change.
Yeah baby
omg....that's almost too much!
Yellow board Tom Bodycomb. Car park went off when he came out of that barrel.
Cheers. WOTD from what I’ve seen.
What time was it? Might try to find on the cam replay
Not sure of the time. I assume it’s the one in here. Classic shots.
Point Nepean buoy 18.2s peak period
Any reports from the other side of the cape? Wind was pretty light on SC and enough N in it for the other side I reckon.
Can you imagine :-0
I did see a morning post on instagram from that region. Won't share it here but if you get your hashtag combos right you'll find it. Looked pretty raw.
Big set this arvo!
What a day
Probs a favourite from the day
Nice!
nice composition ruckus. I agree with you re that oily calm.. lovely to be in but almost unsettling.
Yeah I found it a bit unsettling in the morning where I was. Light was very flat, not many crew around and an eerie feeling in the air.
Hoax coast was as good as it gets
busy?
How was that earthquake around midnight. Probably caused by a monster set at Bells
Haha.
Hats off to all the legends who pulled in at the Pop yesterday. It's a heavy place even in that state of perfection and the gonads on display greatly entertained me in bed with a wog (how inappropriate) and a long list of pathetic excuses starting with the talk I gave myself while floating in on a half snapped 7'6 about underestimating the ocean and overestimating my own abilities
chargers charging - cue applause --
Love all these comments from the Vic crew! So stoked for all of you that the drought has broken!
Amazing pics :-)
Thank you guys for this thread, and congratulations to those that surfed and watched. Taking part, if only vicariously, and hugely enjoying the show.
The swell looks to hit my local today, but I'm 20000km away. The 8'0 Keogh would have loved it. Ah well.
My interest is piqued IB - if you are 20,000km away and the diameter of the earth is 12,000km are you 6000km up in orbit?
What a show it's been. My brain just relayed images of the waves on Sunday all night long last night. And yeah we got an earthquake too...
Circumference of Earth is ~40000km. We're in London (feels like a parallel universe, though, so you're not all wrong).