Great surf over the coming days
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 22nd May)
Best Days: Today, tomorrow, Wednesday, Thursday afternoon, Saturday, Sunday, Monday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Large S/SW groundswell easing later today, further tomorrow
- Moderate sized reinforcing S/SW swell for tomorrow PM, easing Wed
- Gusty W/NW-NW tending NW winds tomorrow, N/NW Wed
- Moderate sized mid-period S/SW swell building Thu PM with strong N tending weaker W/NW winds
- Moderate sized mix of swells Fri with strong SS/SW-SW winds
- Easing surf Sat with fresh W/NW-NW winds
- Moderate sized SW groundswell Sun with NW tending variable winds
- Large SW groundswell likely later Sun, easing Mon with NW winds
Recap
A new mix of swells seen into Friday afternoon held well Saturday morning with clean, fun 3ft waves across the Surf Coast, bumpy and a little bigger to the east. A new pulse of SW swell arrived later in the day on the Surf Coast, while yesterday was large but poor with a strong cold front pushing through.
Today is pumping with a peak in large S/SW groundswell under offshore winds, coming in at 6-8ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 8ft to the east. Winds will hold out of the W/NW all day as the swell starts to ease later.
This week and weekend (May 23 - 28)
The marathon run of great Surf Coast waves starts.
As pointed out last week, the coming period/fortnight looks very active and great for the Surf Coast as we see strong, persistent frontal systems pushing up and across the south-east of the country.
Following yesterday's strong cold front and trailing fetch of gales (linked to today's stronger S/SW swell) we saw a small polar front generating an additional fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds.
This should produce a reinforcing mid-period S/SW swell for tomorrow afternoon, stalling the easing trend of the current swell.
The Surf Coast should hold around 4ft most of the day, with 5ft'ers still on the magnets early, with the Mornington Peninsula coming in more around 6ft.
The swell is then due to drop Wednesday, easing back from 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast and 5ft to the east.
Conditions will be great tomorrow and gusty out of the W/NW-NW tending NW during the afternoon, remaining fresh from the N/NW on Wednesday as the swell eases.
It looks like we'll hit a temporary low point in swell Thursday morning ahead of a mix of building mid-period S/SW swell and W'ly swell through the afternoon. The S/SW energy will be generated by a patchy frontal system south of the country this afternoon through tomorrow morning with building sets to 3ft+ due into the afternoon on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east along with strong N tending W/NW winds.
There's also due to be some weak mid-period W'ly swell from an approaching frontal system building into the afternoon, tending SW in direction through Friday as the front pushes up and into us.
Strong S/SW tending SW winds will create poor conditions on Friday with a mix of swells 4ft+ due on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east.
Of greater importance is a much more significant frontal progression forming under the country later week. We're expected to see a broad, elongated fetch of pre-frontal W/NW gale setting up an active sea state for post-frontal severe-gale to storm-force SW winds to project up and over on. This trailing fetch will push up and across Tasmania on the weekend, with a large, long-period SW groundswell due to follow.
EC has the system being a touch weaker than GFS but regardless we're looking at strong 6-8ft sets later Sunday and early Monday to the west, with room for movement regarding the timing and final size.
Conditions look favourable with winds out of the north-western quadrant all weekend and Monday, but check back here on Wednesday for a clearer idea on this large SW groundswell.
Comments
Looked unreal this morning, winki cam made for good viewing. Interesting to see how many out, I counted roughly 30 on uppers same if not more on lowers, fair few crew considering the size... For the chargers out this morning, about as busy or busier than usual?
I think we are looking at Bells Bowl / Uppers on the cam today, been shifted craig?
Yeah that was the Bowl, Winki breaking wide of camera on the low.
Any chance we can get the camera pointed at Winki more, it currently misses all the sets waves at Winki?
I'd do it if I could, but Ben and Jono are on Annual Leave so we'll have to wait, will try and get it done.
It's a pretty good indication of size / and tide when it breaks off cam.
I'm always amazed at how wide the bowl breaks on these kinds of days.
Jono to the rescue!
Is it hard for us to get a active sea state with fronts moving to quickly?
That pic above looks kinda as ideal as we get?
Yeah if they move too quickly. it's not ideal at all unless the secondary fronts themselves move in quickly. Slower the better.
So fun this am!
Yeah Ed!!
Hi Craig, The high tide today was 2.3m - that seems unusually high to me. I always think 1.8 is a large high in Vic and this was much higher. Was it unusual?
Shane
1.8 m @ 2.23 pm point lonsdale, give it 20-30 years and tides will be getting that high
Insanely fun day. Strong sets in the morning and nice and consistent, the late arvo was then a fun sesh. Scored.
Very solid and lots of fun. The tide did get quite high too.
Question: do swells have different wave speeds? Ie how fast each individual swell is moving in the water? We measure in height and period and direction, but do we measure wave speed, or swelltrain speed ie m/s?
Yeah they totally do, the longer-period waves move faster than the weaker, mid-period stuff.
It always catches me a little out when going back to the southern states after surfing the East Coast.
But then slowed down again by Bass Strait depth, right?
In regards to surf coast.
Yeah, but even in shore you'd notice the different speed of the longer-period sets pushing in on the reefs.
The lower-period would seem more consistent but come in slower, allowing more time to paddle in and chase them down, where the longer-period stuff you have to go, go, go.
Hell yeah, I remember that last swell on 9th March being spun out by just how big the waves were, and how fast they were coming at us.
That said, you guys on the east coast get 7-9s periods, which means lots more waves! Or am I imagining that?
Yeah with those lower-period sea states they come in fairly consistent due to the local swell source and wide range of sizes, periods etc. A broad spectrum of energy.
And Craig, what was the wave speed today (average over a period of time, or average for significant wave size would be ok)?
I noticed where I was at, every now and then one would come in from a little wide (away from direction of the swell), wondered if this was south in it.
Yeah there was mid-period SW swell energy from this more northerly located fetch, and then more south, S/SW groundswell from the polar gale-force winds. That's what you would have seen in the water..
Speed wise, the deep water equation is 2.81*period, when it starts shoaling it would be a little weaker.
A 13s swell = 36km/h, a 16s = 45km/h.
Yea but isn’t this the formula for open ocean swells. Once it feels the bottom which longer period do they’ll slow down quicker?
And could it be said that therefore the longitudinal speed stays pretty constant but what us surfers are feeling is the longer period energy getting forced vertical and out off the mean sea level higher and quicker, which correlates to that feeling of it quickly jumping up underneath you and wanting you to paddle quicker for the takeoff. Additionally the speed down the line once your up is because of more power/better shaper and wall often associated with longer period swells, rather than its longitudinal speed towards shore. Not saying I’m right or wrong just thought I’d open the debate.
Yeah interesting, as the deep water waves move into shallower water they all decelerate and approach the shallow water wave equation and speed which is in dependent of the wave period.
Doing some quick calculations the longer-period stuff does decelerate the most while the lower-period energy only slows on the final shallower depths, so you might be onto something there. It's a tricky one to get the head around.
That is so interesting Craig and dbut! For raw maths I'm amazed at the difference between 36 and 45km/h. I remember the cortez docco and they said they were moving at 55km/h iirc (surely not 55 miles?!)
Tow speeds have been reported at 70-80km/h - so that makes a 16s wave down here really fast!
I've suspected that I need to make my bigger wave boards longer (they are already longer than a young top 10% shortboarder would have, partly as I am getting older, partly with increasing paddle being put into them, partly cos the lineups are football field sized at times - soccer at least lol - and partly because I now understand the waves are moving much quicker.)
Dbut it's fascinating the extra factors you mention. One of our most memorable sessions was only 3 foot but it was a long range 20s swell that fired up a beachy near bells and created the fastest hollow rights! (Better more powerful shape from longer period perhaps) We came in from that one and were so tired, too!
Today was pumping as per forecast. Lots of kick and great shape. Wind was a bit blustery offshore, another reason to have more paddle getting in.
Edit: yesterday 15.4 peak (I assume sets) * 2.81 = 43.27km/h - before other factors might slow the waves and jack them
How much does Bass St slow the waves down? It's pretty shallow.
I think there’s a thread dedicated to that Vj?
Apparently there's about 4 or 5:
eg Nick's 2018 q
https://www.swellnet.com/comment/577171
and I also found this, maybe more generalised? I'll have to read after work:
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S1463500322000282
It's a tricky one but looking at some rough calculations on intermediate water wave speeds, taking in difference between the deepwater speed.
So deepwater speed for a 14s swell = 39.34km/h, but when in 80m of water it looks to slow slightly to 36.51km/h.
Not too much but when getting shallower it slows down quite considerably, ie 26km/h in 40m.
Pt Nepean buoy significant period 12.7s and peak period 15.4s at 12 midday today for the record.
9.18 am till 9.23 am if anyone wants to see consistent bombs breaking at winki, looks all time and very consistent
That big swell still looks set for the coming weekend. Super deep low near Antartica.
How big you reckon sr?
Million dollar question GF. Looks like it stalls for nearly a day and moves from deep near Antartica and takes a line straight for you guys. The perfect storm really.
Dunno. It's so south that you'd have to think Bells is gonna be 10-12 on the sets? I'd be tempted to say even bigger.
25+ on the Otway coast.
edit: actually not as South as i thought, but straight SW, but that period will be a belter and should be getting into most coasts with plenty of energy.
That's my guestimate but could be well out. You or anyone else got a read on it??
Not sure, I’m hoping your estimates are on the money though.
The crowd on Monday was pretty frustrating where I was.
I’ve found when it gets to that next size up there tends to be more waves to go around. Fingers crossed!
Should be plenty of waves up and down the coast for sure.
Looking forward to seeing the pics.
Guessing we'll get a fair bit of this swell over this side of oz too.
Hope you get a few Goofy!
8-10ft for me at this stage.
Sunday or Monday?
You'll see in the notes today ;p
Always teasing us Craigos
I’m with you easy 8ft, 10-12ft sets, bigger bombs.
PC will be something to behold with those forecasted winds. So will a certain draining death pit… two death pits actually and an endless right
If you get a chance check the cams at 11.50 am. One of the longest barrels I've ever seen at winki. Back to work now... .·´¯`(>▂<)´¯`·.
No app on phone, you'll have to describe it ;)
Just re-watched on my phone. (11.49) - I was maybe a little excited seeing it live...Not a real throaty all time deep pit, but pretty decent for winki. I think 3rd and biggest wave of the set. Bit of a wide one. Pulled in early high and tight, opened up a little and threw a second time. Squeaked out up high. I'd be happy to go home with that in the bank...worth a look if you can. Barely surf winki anymore but serious FOMO today.
Yesterday at W.P. was good on the incoming tide. I needed a new pair of paddling arms by lunch time. Finally proper Autumn surf is here!. I am keen to see what next Monday brings.