Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 27th March)

Best Days: This afternoon on the exposed beaches, tomorrow both coasts (beaches early), Surf Coast desperate surfers Wednesday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Easing mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow and Wed
• Early N/NE tending N/NW winds to the east tomorrow, N/NW to the west ahead of a shallow PM S/SW change, freshening later
• W/NW tending gusty SW winds Wed
• Small, weak mix of background swells Thu and Fri AM with W/NW tending SW winds Thu, NW Fri ahead of a freshening SW change mid-PM
• Moderate sized SW groundswell building later Fri, peaking Sat with strong S/SW winds, easing a little into the PM and tending S
• Easing surf Sun with moderate S/SE-SE winds

Recap

Saturday saw generally average conditions with building levels of SW groundswell, peaking yesterday as winds lightened, creating bumpy, workable surf to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast, while to the east options were limited with the large 6ft+ sets across the open beaches.

This morning the swell is easing with light, variable winds and bumpy 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east and cleaner but still a touch too big. The swell should continue to ease through the day and an inland trough will result in winds remaining light out of the eastern quadrant, favouring the beaches to the east into the afternoon and evening.

This week and weekend (Mar 28 – Apr 2)

Make the most of this afternoon and evening across the exposed beaches where winds are due to remain light out of the E/NE-E and the weekend's swell energy continues to ease.

An inland trough will sit across us tomorrow morning, resulting in N/NE tending N/NW winds to the east and N/NW winds to the west, giving into a shallow S/SW change through the afternoon as the size continues to ease.

The exposed beaches will be best early with easing 4ft sets while the Surf Coast should offer 2-3ft sets.

Wednesday looks smaller and strengthening SW winds will develop in the wake of tomorrow afternoon's change, though the Surf Coast is likely to see morning W/NW winds. Don't expect much over 2ft though.

Thursday morning remains uninteresting with early W/NW winds, shifting SW through the day and a mix of weak, background swells to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east.

Into the end of the week but more so the weekend, good levels of SW groundswell are due to fill in but again local winds will be an issue thanks to persistent ridges of high pressure moving in from the west at our latitude.

A strengthening polar frontal progression to the south-southwest of Western Australia should generate a great, broad fetch of gale to severe-gale winds through our south-western swell window tomorrow through Wednesday. The progression will weaken through Thursday but maintain W/SW winds in our swell window, extending the lifetime of the swell through Sunday.

The initial SW groundswell pulse should arrive through Friday afternoon, only building late and peaking Saturday to 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east. Winds look offshore and NW ahead of the swell Friday, swinging SW just when signs of the new swell are due to show mid-afternoon, while Saturday looks poor with strong S/SW-S winds that will abate slightly through the afternoon.

Moderate S/SE-SE winds will hold into Sunday as the swell eases back from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east.

Into next week we're looking at persistent winds out of the south-eastern quadrant along with small levels of mid-period SW-S/SW swell. All in all not great for the start of the Rip Curl Pro waiting period. We'll have more on this in a forecast article tomorrow.