Make the most of this morning and hit the beaches post GF

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday September 23rd)

Best Days: Surf Coast this morning, Sunday, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Continuing, moderate sized, inconsistent W/SW swell Fri with variable tending S/SW winds early-mid PM, strengthening thereafter
  • Inconsistent, moderate sized W/SW groundswell later Fri, peaking Sat AM with strong S/SW winds, abating a touch into the PM
  • Easing swell Sun with early local offshore tending N/NE-NE winds, then E/NE into the PM
  • Smaller Mon AM with mod-fresh N/NE tending NE winds
  • Inconsistent, moderate sized W/SW groundswell building Mon PM, holding Tue with strengthening SE winds (possibly variable early)
  • Easing surf Wed with strong S/SW winds
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell Thu/Fri with fresh to strong S/SW winds


Our first pulse of moderate sized W/SW swell came in nicely yesterday with sets in the 3ft+ range across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east with a window of early light winds creating clean conditions. The afternoon was bumpy but still OK across selected breaks, while this morning we’ve got similar sized surf and early light winds again.

A trough will bring a strong S/SW change early-mid afternoon, writing off the surf for the rest of the day and tomorrow so make the most of this morning.

This weekend and next week (Sep 24 - 31)

Looking at the coming weekend and we’ve got our strongest pulse of W/SW groundswell due to arrive later today, peaking tomorrow morning before easing slowly into the afternoon, down further in size Sunday.

Unfortunately for those looking for a surf before the Grand Final, strong S/SW winds in the wake of this afternoon's change will create poor conditions across all spots, easing into the afternoon. The Surf Coast should be up around 3-4ft with 6ft surf to the east, much better Sunday with a light offshore N/NW breeze, tending N/NE through the morning and E/NE into the afternoon.

This will favour both regions with easing sets from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.

Monday morning looks smaller again and moderate to fresh N/NE winds will favour the exposed beaches, shifting NE into the afternoon.

Into the afternoon on Monday our inconsistent but moderate sized W/SW groundswell is expected, with a fetch of gale to just under severe-gale W/SW winds generated south-west of Western Australia yesterday evening and it’s now weakening while pushing north-east, on approach to the mainland.

We should see some good sized surf into Monday afternoon, building to an inconsistent 3-4ft by dark on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft to the east but with those E/NE winds.

Tuesday unfortunately looks average as a small trough deepens to out east, bringing increasing SE winds that may be variable early. Size wise there should be similar sized surf to Monday afternoon but with nowhere to really recommend.

The trough is due to form into a low during the rest of next week, spoiling local winds and a new W/SW groundswell due Thursday/Friday. A strong S/SW breeze is due on Wednesday, persisting Thursday while possibly weakening Friday but we’ll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend and go the Cats!


Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Friday, 23 Sep 2022 at 11:34am

Pier 3182 locals will be looking for some local wind swell to make up for a disappointing post-bye run this season.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 23 Sep 2022 at 12:55pm

Willy has something different pegged for Mon. Carn the Craigoss

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Friday, 23 Sep 2022 at 1:50pm

Glassy 2 to 3 ft from where i’m sitting bone
Bar of memories with a few cold green changs

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 23 Sep 2022 at 8:09pm

had a fun one today off broadway. actually a pretty interesting theatre set up

kirwoods's picture
kirwoods's picture
kirwoods Sunday, 25 Sep 2022 at 7:09pm

The most cryptic dudes getting around on the internet these blokes!!

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Monday, 26 Sep 2022 at 9:53am

Ya can join if you want Kirwoods. Been trying to work out who you are. Either you are a Kirwood, live down the road, or just surf there.