Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 6th December)
Best Days: Today, Sunday morning on the beaches, Monday morning on the beaches
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Fading surf tomorrow with a W/NW breeze ahead of a strong SW change mid-morning
- Gusty S'ly winds Wed, stronger S/SE Thu with a new, inconsistent mid-period W/SW swell and SE windswell for Thu
- Easing mix of swells Fri with mod SE tending fresh S/SE winds
- Small-mod, mid-period S/SW swell Sat with fresh E/SE tending strong S/SE winds
- Easing mix of swells Sun with E/NE tending S/SE winds
- Small, mid-period S/SW swell Mon with N/NE winds ahead of a late change
Good waves on the Surf Coast reefs Saturday morning with clean conditions and a good W/SW groundswell easing from the 4ft+ range, bumpy to the east. Yesterday was smaller and not as clean with a light to moderate onshore breeze, workable across all coasts for the keen.
Today the beaches have cleaned up nicely with the swell on the way out, easing from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft+ to the east. Winds should remain offshore all day for the beaches to the east so make the most of it as the coming forecast isn't the most favourable for either coast.
This week and weekend (Dec 7 - 12)
We've got an average week of surf ahead with a surface trough due to move in mid-morning tomorrow, then forming into a low off the southern NSW coast which will see persistent onshore winds from the south-eastern quadrant extending into the weekend.
Ahead of the change early tomorrow, winds should be W/NW, but the swell will be tiny on the Surf Coast, bumpy and small to the east. Winds will shift strong SW mid-morning and then be gusty out of the S'th on Wednesday as a high tries to edge in from the west.
As the low forms and the high squeezes from the west Thursday, winds will strengthen from the S/SE, kicking up a local windswell across both coasts, mixed in with a small, mid-period W/SW swell.
The mid-period swell was generated by a weak frontal progression firing up east of the Heard Island region on the weekend, with the remnants of this moving under the Bight today.
Size wise the Surf Coast looks to come in at 2-3ft, with 3-5ft sets to the east but with that poor, fresh to strong S/SE breeze.
Winds will ease into Friday but persist from the S/SE (moderate to fresh) with an easing mix of W/SW and S/SE swells.
As we move into the weekend the low in the Tasman Sea will move off to the east and the high will slide in a bit further, shifting winds E/SE through Saturday morning ahead of a stronger afternoon SE'ly.
Swell wise a new, small-moderate sized, mid-period S/SW swell from a polar low should fill in Saturday morning with another kick to the 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 4ft+ to the east along with some junky SE windswell.
We're likely to see winds improving for the beaches from Sunday, tending E/NE in the mornings as the high continues to slowly move east, squeezed then by a develop low off Western Australia.
The only issue is the swell though, with the slow moving nature blocking our main swell windows. There is some small S/SW swell due through Sunday and early next week but mostly to the 3ft range on the peninsula, 2ft to the west.
Another trough looks to bring a S/SW change late Monday, with lingering S'ly winds Tuesday but we'll have a closer look at this Wednesday.