Make the most of the coming days

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th November)

Best Days: Tomorrow morning Surf Coast, Wednesday exposed spots until mid-late afternoon, possibly beaches Saturday morning

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Moderate sized, easing mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow with moderate SW winds (lighter and W/NW early on the Surf Coast)
  • Fading swell Wed with light N/NW tending N/NE and then SE winds
  • Low point in swell Thu with strengthening N/NE winds
  • Strengtheing S/SW winds Fri
  • Building mid-period S/SW swell Sat with E tending SE winds, easing Sun with SE tending SW winds

Recap

Poor surf on Saturday with a mix of swells and onshore winds, better yesterday morning on the Surf Coast with clean conditions ahead of a strong cold front and 2ft to occasionally 3ft waves on the Surf Coast.

Into the afternoon the frontal system started to push in and some localised windswell started to build with favourable conditions for protected spots.

Today we've got a freezing morning, snow on the apline regions and a large, stormy SW swell coming in around the 6ft range on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east but with generally poor conditions. Protected spots are the go for experienced surfers.

This week and weekend (Nov 16 - 21)

The next two days are the ones to focus on for this coming week as the strong cold outbreak responsible for today's swell and weather clears off to the east as a high moves in from the west.

With the trailing fetch off the back of the polar frontal system being S/SW, we'll see dropping levels of mid-period S/SW swell tomorrow, further Wednesday before bottoming out Thursday.

Winds tomorrow will relax but persist from the SW (moderate in strength) with the Surf Coast seeing a period of lighter, W/NW winds early-mid morning.

It won't be perfect on the Surf Coast and a little lumpy but fun with easing surf from the 4ft range, 5ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula and smaller across Phillip Island due to the southerly swell direction.

Winds are now looking better for the beaches on Wednesday with early N/NW winds shifting N/NE ahead of sea breezes, and this will see improving conditions through the morning before becoming bumpy mid-late afternoon.

The swell will be weak and small though, easing from 2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east.

The next approaching system from the west will be a surface trough, bringing freshening N/NE winds Thursday that will become stronger into the afternoon. There'll be no decent swell in the water though with tiny waves on the Surf Coast and a possible 1-2ft of background, mid-period swell on the Mornington Peninsula.

The trough will move through Friday bringing a strengthening S/SW breeze but no new surf.

Swell wise a new, mid-period S/SW swell is on the cards for Saturday, building through the day and peaking into the afternoon. This will be generated by a broad though weak fetch of W/SW winds projecting from the polar shelf, up towards Tasmania Wednesday through Friday.

The Surf Coast should build to 3ft on the sets through the afternoon, 3-5ft to the east and there looks to be a period of lighter E'ly winds Saturday morning when it'll be smaller ahead of strengthening SE winds into the afternoon.

Winds will then swing from SE to SW through Sunday as the swell eases and a deepening inland low drifts south-east across us.

This isn't expected to bring any swell but more weather and rain, and longer term it remains quiet. More on this in the coming updates.

Comments

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 11:08am

Cmon Huey.. This is getting ridiculous..

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 11:22am

"This isn't expected to bring any swell but more weather and rain"

Summer surf conditions without the sun. Sweet.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 12:52pm

Urbn surf will be happy with this outlook. Only waves in Victoria.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 1:18pm

(Southern) Victoria.

The place to be.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 1:39pm

Healthy crew at Lorne on the cam

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 2:10pm

Watched it for a bit, I wouldn't even bother paddling out if it was empty. People are strange

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 4:19pm

love the total optimist sitting deep of where you walk out

gannet's picture
gannet's picture
gannet Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 3:06pm

They're making the most of the coming days

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 3:14pm

Ha.

Hiccups's picture
Hiccups's picture
Hiccups Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 4:04pm

It's funny how many people you see out there when it's doing fuck all.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 4:22pm

So... what is everyone up to waiting for the weather to change? I've cleaned up my deck, now I'm going through old admin files and thinning them out.

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 5:02pm

Fun waves at a not too crowded spot on the MP today

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 5:48pm

The last two months has been the same pattern: 2 days warm, 5-6 days cold, 2 days warm, 5-6 days cold.
And it doesn’t look like breaking anytime soon.
Weird.

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 5:53pm

I haven't surfed the wave pool yet (hope to one day), but am curious how it compares with a good day at somewhere like Lorne Point. ( To crowded to be considered good today ) Are those 12 or so waves worth the $70 or 80 ? If you are stuck in Melbourne I imagine it is.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 6:24pm

110% better than any day at Lorne point ever but doesn’t compare to some other nearby spots. Worth the money in times like this for sure though

Pete7's picture
Pete7's picture
Pete7 Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 6:51pm

What winds offshore at urbnsurf? Does it work ok in light onshore

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 8:47pm

pete7 it works in 30knts onshore. it does not effect the wave what so ever. period.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 9:24pm

Anything with north in it is offshore ... but sometimes the onshore makes the wave better and other times the wave structure protects the wave from the wind anyway.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 9:26pm

Nah salt water pretty much trumps chlorine any day ...
But I just surfed the pool cos I'm desperate.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 8:43pm

its hwy robbery but when you are on your death bed you are not going to be thinking about how much cash you burnt there. you will be remembering the the barrels and carves thats for sure.
ps "happily stuck in south melbourne" :)

tommy southcoast's picture
tommy southcoast's picture
tommy southcoast Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 9:25pm

Ha

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 12:54am

Still no southeasters is the only strange thing here. Not that it's a bad thing

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 11:41am

Fuck me if the weather doesn't transition into summer next month we are going to have plenty of 10 degree days all through December. Hell it may even snow again through December, now that is unusual. It's normal for a few 12-15 degree days in December not with snow though.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 11:46am

Summer snow isn't rare, usually occurs once a year.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:18pm
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 2:53pm

"Okay, campers, rise and shine and don't forget your booties 'cause it's cold out there today!"

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:39pm

Well yea I spose it does happen but what matters is how low down in terms of altitude you get snow fall. I don't snowboard so Im not the best at checking snow weather. Baw baw is pretty low down compared to buller yea?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 1:46pm

Yep, Baw Baw is low and loves systems from the south and south-east for orographic lift. Misses out a bit under usual fronts.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 2:58pm

Ms and I took nephews to Baw Baw a couple of years ago in one of those southerly systems and it was magic, full winter wonderland.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 2:55pm

One little metric I look at is how late in the year the local fireplaces are fired up. They are still going and have been on and off all month. Will be watching for them in December - usually people stop by now.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 3:37pm

According to BOM this little 4 day stretch is the coldest consecutive days here in mid November since records have been taken.

Gas log heater at my joint has been on full throttle from about 6pm each day since Friday.

Wouldn't mind wearing boardies (on land) one day in the near future..........wouldn't that be nice!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 4:06pm

Mental.

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 3:34pm

I think I will buy a snowboard after I get a skimboard and kite board then spend some time at baw baw then

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 4:02pm

The last time I went to Baw Baw the longest run was about 500m...............was a fucken loooong time ago though.

Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710's picture
Patrick0710 Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 3:37pm

That monster Low in the Antarctic is aching to come up and smash us. Hopefully the High coming from the west keeps it in place but it's a hell of a battle developing over the weekend.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Tuesday, 16 Nov 2021 at 6:45pm

Hey Craig, been down the surfcoast since Friday and surfed every day since Saturday, definitely making the most of it, we are cooked to say the least.
We’re currently sitting around sinking a few beers and having the age old debate, what’s 3’????
From a Swellnet perspective, can you please clarify how big it’s going to be (faces) if it’s 3’ etc. thanks in advance.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Nov 2021 at 6:29am

3ft = head-high which is 5-6ft faces.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Wednesday, 17 Nov 2021 at 7:13am

Cheers Craig.
Looks like another fun day ahead, time to refuel and get out there.
Hopefully the sun joins us today.

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Wednesday, 17 Nov 2021 at 8:07am

Haha 3 foot I'f ur from Melbourne 3 metres if ur from hawaii. I hope u guys score, it's gonna be a magic week if ur able to travel

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 17 Nov 2021 at 6:30am

Looks like the tail end of the swell has over-performed which I'm guessing people aren't complaining about. Still some fun size about this AM.