Large, windy swell for early next week

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 12th November)

Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday morning for the keen, protected spots Monday, Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday morning Surf Coast for the keen, beaches Friday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Small, mid-period S/SW swell for tomorrow, and Sun AM, easing into Sun PM
  • Strong S/SW winds tomorrow, then strong NW tending W/NW ahead of a W/SW change Sun
  • Late increase in new SW swell Sun, large and peaking Mon AM with strong SW winds (possibly W'ly for a short period early on the Surf Coast)
  • Moderate sized, easing S/SW swell Tue with mod-fresh SW winds (W/NW early Surf Coast)
  • Fading surf Wed with light-mod SW tending SE winds (W/NW early Surf Coast)
  • Fading surf Thu with NE tending SE winds
  • New S/SW swell buiding Fri with N/NE winds

Recap

Conditions have been average but workable for the keen across both regions the last two days. Yesterday the Surf Coast was best in the morning with lighter W/SW winds and a lumpy/bumpy mix of swells to 2-3ft.

Today winds are around to the E/SE-SE favouring the beaches with a weak mix of swells to 3-4ft.

This weekend and next week (Nov 13 - 19)

The weekend won't be great at all but there should be a window of clean, small waves for the keen Sunday morning.

Today's south-east winds will revert back to a strong S/SW'ly tomorrow as a strengthening polar front pushes up and towards us, but swell wise we'll see an average, mix of swells continuing coming in at 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft or so to the east.

Sunday morning will be much cleaner with a strong NW tending W/NW breeze as the frontal progression moves in, swinging winds to the W/SW through the afternoon.

Swell wise, some small mid-period S/SW swell should be in the water, generated by weak polar frontal activity the last couple of days south of the country. 2ft sets are due on the Surf Coast with 3ft+ waves to the east, easing through the day.

As we move into the afternoon and the W/SW change pushes through, we're due to see some building swell energy into the late afternoon/evening, likely reaching 3ft by dark on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east but with those strong winds. It'll be weak, developing surf and not worth holding out for.

This late increase in size will be the precursor to larger, mid-period surf on Monday, generated by a broad, great fetch of strong S/SW winds being projected up through our south-western swell window over the coming days.

While not reaching gale-force, the projection and slow moving nature of the swell generating fetch will produce large, consistent surf, peaking through Monday to 6ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 8ft+ to the east, easing into the afternoon.

Winds are still the main issue with strong SW breezes due through Bass Strait, possibly W'ly early on the Surf Coast but stick to protected spots.

The swell will ease Tuesday as the front clears to the east, but winds will linger from the SW, fresh in strength but with a much greater chance of early W/NW winds on the Surf Coast.

Size wise, the swell looks to still be chunky, easing from 4ft+ on the Surf Coast and the 6ft range to the ease while tending more S/SW in direction. It won't be perfect and likely lumpy, but fun for the keen.

Wednesday will see smaller surf and a light to moderate SW tending SE breeze, (W/NW early on the Surf Coast) with easing sets from 2ft+.

A high moving in from the west during the middle of the week should swing winds around to the NE on Thursday, light in strength but there'll be small, fading surf. The Surf Coast looks to be tiny with easing 2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards with a small pulse of S/SW swell likely Friday/Saturday with possibly favourable winds for the beaches ahead of a trough, but check back here on Monday for more on this. Have a great weekend!

Comments

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 2:50pm

“When Chekhov saw the long winter, he saw a winter bleak and dark and bereft of hope. Yet we know that winter is just another step in the cycle of life. But standing here among the people of Punxsutorquay and basking in the warmth of their hearths and hearts, I couldn't imagine a better fate than a long and lustrous winter.”

“There is no way that this winter is ever going to end as long as this groundhog keeps seeing his shadow. I don't see any other way out. He's got to be stopped. And I have to stop him.”

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 7:06pm

Terrible run on the sc.. at least if there’s no surf, it’d be nice to have some decent weather. Fast forward to March please..

sunbird's picture
sunbird's picture
sunbird Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 7:30pm

Made my grey day. Thanks VJ

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 7:32pm

Ding fixing and wax stripping conditions on the S.C.

Would be stupid wasting petty driving down here until next year.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 12 Nov 2021 at 9:57pm

Mountain bike purchase been paying dividends lately, am getting a little sick of the mud cleanup though

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 12:32am

The backyard has been wet and muddy for over a month straight. Remember when we use to get a dozen 40 degree days over summer. When was the last 40 degree day we had in airyeys inlet?? 3 or 4 years ago?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:02am

2019/20, not that long ago, remember the record breaking temps?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 4:14pm

Craig, we've been on SC long enough to reckon that the summers have been milder to colder in recent years than 15 years ago for eg. iirc, that massive heat wave, we didn't see much of it down here, in the high 20's or low 30s (bright, warm) while it was 47+ in inland NSW. Again, reckoning.

Weatherman's picture
Weatherman's picture
Weatherman Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 5:50pm

Be careful what you wish for poo man. Those 40 degree days with howling northerlies are a disaster waiting to happen in the Otways. I know we haven't had many the last couple of years, but the next el nino will come back at some stage. I like a warm day as much as anyone, but don't miss 40+ days.

Sheep go to heaven's picture
Sheep go to heaven's picture
Sheep go to heaven Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 7:27am

ahhh yes ... " One mans meat is another mans poison " , I'ts been a brilliant spring on the farm , lots of grass . Silage and hay everywhere , dams all full . Sheep fat and happy . and waves, not epic but little gems here and there

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 11:48am

Good to hear someone is benefiting Sheep’s. And VJ, your best work, Checkov and Bill Murray!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 13 Nov 2021 at 4:12pm

I love that movie so much, scripting is perfect. The montage of him getting slapped repeatedly in the face as he tries to dial Rita in, priceless! The groundhog driving the ute...

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 9:49am

Bring us March . Autumn = surfing IMHO.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 5:22pm

Having an enjoyable afternoon checking as many webcams as I can in the path of this front - big size and strong westerlies throughout the Strait. Got a paddle in some westerly-affected waves today, the swell seemed to be building a bit.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Sunday, 14 Nov 2021 at 11:21pm

Snow on bourke st at buller

https://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/australia/vic/buller/buller1.html

Snow on Mt Mawson in Tassie

https://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/australia/tas/mtmawson-tow.html

snow at Falls

https://www.ski.com.au/snowcams/australia/vic/fallscreek/fallscreek-expr...

& the big D at Hotham, click on the Big D link

https://www.snowatch.com.au/live-snow-cams-victoria/

you can see even a sprinkling at Baw Baw...

quite a bit of it in NSW as well

https://www.snowatch.com.au/live-snow-cams-nsw/

2 weeks till summer!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 8:16am

Love it!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Monday, 15 Nov 2021 at 8:17am

It’s fking freezing!!