Large, windy swell for early next week
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 12th November)
Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday morning for the keen, protected spots Monday, Tuesday morning Surf Coast, Wednesday morning Surf Coast for the keen, beaches Friday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Small, mid-period S/SW swell for tomorrow, and Sun AM, easing into Sun PM
- Strong S/SW winds tomorrow, then strong NW tending W/NW ahead of a W/SW change Sun
- Late increase in new SW swell Sun, large and peaking Mon AM with strong SW winds (possibly W'ly for a short period early on the Surf Coast)
- Moderate sized, easing S/SW swell Tue with mod-fresh SW winds (W/NW early Surf Coast)
- Fading surf Wed with light-mod SW tending SE winds (W/NW early Surf Coast)
- Fading surf Thu with NE tending SE winds
- New S/SW swell buiding Fri with N/NE winds
Conditions have been average but workable for the keen across both regions the last two days. Yesterday the Surf Coast was best in the morning with lighter W/SW winds and a lumpy/bumpy mix of swells to 2-3ft.
Today winds are around to the E/SE-SE favouring the beaches with a weak mix of swells to 3-4ft.
This weekend and next week (Nov 13 - 19)
The weekend won't be great at all but there should be a window of clean, small waves for the keen Sunday morning.
Today's south-east winds will revert back to a strong S/SW'ly tomorrow as a strengthening polar front pushes up and towards us, but swell wise we'll see an average, mix of swells continuing coming in at 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft or so to the east.
Sunday morning will be much cleaner with a strong NW tending W/NW breeze as the frontal progression moves in, swinging winds to the W/SW through the afternoon.
Swell wise, some small mid-period S/SW swell should be in the water, generated by weak polar frontal activity the last couple of days south of the country. 2ft sets are due on the Surf Coast with 3ft+ waves to the east, easing through the day.
As we move into the afternoon and the W/SW change pushes through, we're due to see some building swell energy into the late afternoon/evening, likely reaching 3ft by dark on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east but with those strong winds. It'll be weak, developing surf and not worth holding out for.
This late increase in size will be the precursor to larger, mid-period surf on Monday, generated by a broad, great fetch of strong S/SW winds being projected up through our south-western swell window over the coming days.
While not reaching gale-force, the projection and slow moving nature of the swell generating fetch will produce large, consistent surf, peaking through Monday to 6ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 8ft+ to the east, easing into the afternoon.
Winds are still the main issue with strong SW breezes due through Bass Strait, possibly W'ly early on the Surf Coast but stick to protected spots.
The swell will ease Tuesday as the front clears to the east, but winds will linger from the SW, fresh in strength but with a much greater chance of early W/NW winds on the Surf Coast.
Size wise, the swell looks to still be chunky, easing from 4ft+ on the Surf Coast and the 6ft range to the ease while tending more S/SW in direction. It won't be perfect and likely lumpy, but fun for the keen.
Wednesday will see smaller surf and a light to moderate SW tending SE breeze, (W/NW early on the Surf Coast) with easing sets from 2ft+.
A high moving in from the west during the middle of the week should swing winds around to the NE on Thursday, light in strength but there'll be small, fading surf. The Surf Coast looks to be tiny with easing 2ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
Longer term there's nothing too major on the cards with a small pulse of S/SW swell likely Friday/Saturday with possibly favourable winds for the beaches ahead of a trough, but check back here on Monday for more on this. Have a great weekend!