Hallelujah! There's some new swell on the way
Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Wednesday 27th October)
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Tiny surf Thurs AM, chance for a small PM pulse but with tricky winds
- Solid though junky windswell Fri PM/Sat
- Small average waves Sunday
- Great new swell for Mon PM/Tues, with good winds
- Plenty of swell for the rest of next week, with slight iffy winds
Lighter winds improved surf quality into Tuesday though surf size remained small, only 2ft in Torquay and 3ft east of Melbourne. A small long range groundswell arrived overnight, but failed to provide much new size today, with the Surf Coast languishing around 0.5-1ft and open beaches east of Melbourne topping out at an inconsistent 2ft+ with long breaks between the sets. Conditions were however perfectly clean with light offshore winds.
This week (Oct 28 - 29)
With no new groundswell expected for the next few days, it’ll be slim pickings across all coasts.
A small cut-off low forming in the Bight today will briefly display strong SW winds within our swell window (overnight tonight) but this will be under a rapid SE trajectory - and perpendicular storm tracks (relative to our swell window) are never a good thing.
At best, a small flush of swell may arrive on Thursday afternoon, briefly lifting the tiny morning conditions - however early light winds are expected to freshen from the S/SE through the day as another cut-off low forms in the Bight. So, keep your expectations low.
Friday will see a return to tiny background energy and early northerly winds ahead of S/SW gales, as the low crosses the coast. Current model guidance has sped this up from Monday’s estimates, and now has the change in just after breakfast time in Torquay (and a little later east of Melbourne).
We’ll see building windswells into the afternoon across all coasts - and it could become sizeable at exposed spots - but it’ll be only low quality, storm-surf style.
Honestly, don’t bank on getting wet on Friday.
This weekend (Oct 30 - 31)
The weekend outlook has improved with regards to surface conditions, as the faster progression of this front to the east means we’ll see relaxing pressure gradient and lighter westerly tending north-west winds.
However, there’ll only be one swell train in the water on Saturday, and that’ll be leftover short range windswell from Friday. The swell window is expected to cease generation late Friday, so we may pick up early 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast (and 3-5ft east of Melbourne) but it’ll lose a foot or two through the day. Don’t expect anything great.
A small new long range groundswell will fill in on Sunday as the local swell vanishes completely, but it’s expected to only be big enough for exposed beaches east of Melbourne (3ft sets) and they’l be slightly lumpy from the previous days’ westerlies. Surf size in Torquay will likely be very small indeed.
Next week (Nov 1 onwards)
The outlook for next week has improved, with the Southern Ocean storm track strengthening and broadening, resulting in a slight upgrade for the late Monday/Tuesday swell (see below).
At its peak, surf size should push 3-4ft+ across the Surf Coast swell magnets (a little smaller at most other breaks) and we’re likely to pick up good 4-6ft waves across the open beaches east of Melbourne. They’ll be clean too with light variable winds Monday, tending moderate N/NE on Tuesday.
Just bear in mind first thing Monday will be a little undersized.
A slightly disjointed storm track following behind should maintain reasonable 2-3ft+ waves in Torquay for the rest of the week, as winds veer westerly on Wednesday behind a weak front, and then southerly on Thursday.
As such, make the most of Monday and Tuesday - it’s looking very fun.
See you Friday for more details!