Poor run of winds and surf until Tuesday
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 3rd September)
Best Days: Tuesday mid-late morning ahead of the change, Wednesday, Thursday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Moderate sized, reinforcing W/SW groundswell for late tomorrow with strengthening S'ly winds
- Easing W/SW groundswell Sun with fresh S/SW tending stronger SW winds
- Easing W/SW swell Mon with fresh to strong SW winds
- Mod-large SW groundswell building Tue, peaking late, easing Wed
- Additional moderate sized SW groundswell for later Tue, easing Wed
- Moderate W/NW tending strong SW winds Tue, fresh NW Wed and stronger N/NW Thu
Wednesday evening showed promise with stronger levels of W/SW swell pushing in across all regions, coming in at 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft+ to the east, but alas, the stronger and best pulse of W/SW groundswell due yesterday didn't materialise.
While being generated by the strongest part of the fetch pushing up and under Western Australia, the westerly nature and timing looked to maybe have been the issue, with it peaking into the evening and then easing back from a slow 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast magnets yesterday morning, 5-6ft and pumping to the east.
Conditions were windy and best across the beaches with a warm, strong northerly pushing in ahead of a trough this morning. This trough has brought stormy, humid weather this morning with lightning, fog and a cracker sunrise ahead of a change that's due to move in across all locations by mid-late morning.
A reinforcing W/SW groundswell has kept 3ft sets hitting the Surf Coast this morning, 4-5ft to the east.
This weekend and next week (Sep 4 - 10)
An unstable trough is currently edging its way in from the west, and once it moves across us proper it'll bring fresh SW-S/SW winds and a run of onshore winds that will persist until next Tuesday.
The reason for the prolonged run of onshores is a slow moving high moving in behind today's trough, sliding in from Western Australia while cold fronts continuing to push up towards us, on its southern flank. This will prevent it fully filling in, with strengthening S'ly winds due tomorrow, S/SW tending SW on Sunday.
This will spoil a new W/SW groundswell that's due to arrive later tomorrow afternoon across the state, generated by the final frontal system in the progression seen this week south-west and south of Western Australia.
Size wise, we're likely to see a temporary low point in swell tomorrow morning and early afternoon ahead of the new swell, building to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast magnets and 6ft on the sets to the ease, easing through Sunday.
Monday will unfortunately continue to see fresh to strong SW winds as the weekend's W/SW groundswell continues to drop in size.
Of greater importance though is the moderate to large SW groundswell due into Tuesday/Wednesday across the state as winds improve.
The source of this swell is a strong polar low that formed around the Heard Island region last night. This low will move slowly east through our swell window over the coming days, generating severe-gale W/NW winds, weakening to the gale-force range south of Western Australia Saturday evening.
This should produce a moderate to large SW groundswell that's due to arrive Tuesday morning and build into the afternoon. The Surf Coast looks to be 2ft to possibly 3ft in the morning, building to 4-5ft into the late afternoon, with 3-4ft+ waves on the Mornington Peninsula, building to 6ft+.
The additional swell from a tight low forming on the back of the polar low is still on track, with an additional fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds generated off axis but in our close-range south-western swell window, south-west of Tasmania Monday.
This should generate some additional, more consistent and slightly smaller sized swell for late Tuesday, with both swells easing Wednesday from 4ft on the Surf Coast and the 6ft range on the Mornington Peninsula.
We'll finally see the high moving in and across us through Tuesday and Wednesday, pushed by a strong, south-east sliding in from the west.
This will bring W/NW winds on Tuesday morning, shifting strong SW into the afternoon, NW Wednesday and likely holding most of the day. Thursday will see stronger N/NW winds as the surf continues to ease back from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east.
Longer term we've got a few different swell sources on the cards but we'll have a closer look at this on Monday. Have a great weekend!