Large swell with warm offshore winds
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 1st September)
Best Days: Today, Thursday for experienced surfers, possibly early Friday, Wednesday and Thursday next week
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Mod-large W/SW groundswell for tomorrow AM, with a secondary slightly smaller, reinforcing pulse for the PM with strong N/NE winds
- Easing W/SW groundswell Fri with early variable winds, freshening from the S/SW mid-morning
- Moderate sized, reinforcing W/SW groundswell for late Sat PM with mod-fresh S winds (possibly W at dawn)
- Easing W/SW groundswell Sun with mod-fresh S/SW winds
- Easing W/SW swell Mon with W/NW tending SW winds
- Large SW groundswell for Tue with strong S/SW winds, easing Wed with N winds
Recap
Slow, small and generally average yesterday with a touch less size than Monday and bumpy conditions on the exposed beaches to the west.
Today however is much better, with the first day of September bringing in a good, mid-period W/SW swell with local offshore winds. The Surf Coast is a clean 3-4ft with options across both the beaches and reefs, while the exposed beaches to the east are bigger and for the experienced.
We should see a touch more size developing through the day across both regions as winds tend E/NE on the Surf Coast and hold from the N/NE-NE to the east.
This week and next (Sep 2 - 10)
The kick in size seen across the state today is moderate sized, mid-period energy, generated by the initial stages of a strong frontal progression firing up and under Western Australia on the weekend and earlier this week.
Into tomorrow we should see a larger, stronger W/SW groundswell peaking through the morning, generated by the strongest part of the frontal progression, that being severe-gales under Western Australia on Monday afternoon/evening.
This should provide larger 4-6ft sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets tomorrow morning (smaller in more protected spots), with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
A reinforcing W/SW groundswell is due into the late afternoon and this will just slow the easing trend, generated by gale to severe-gale W/NW winds tracking east-southeast under Western Australia last night.
Size wise this looks to be a touch smaller than forecast on Monday and coming in at 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east tomorrow afternoon, with easing surf from 4ft and 6ft+ respectively due Friday morning.
Looking at the local winds, and this approaching but south-east slipping front will bring strong N/NE winds tomorrow, favouring selected breaks, with Friday morning seeing variable winds ahead of a trough and change, bringing freshening S/SW winds mid-morning. These variable winds could be light onshore, so make the most of tomorrow and don't bank on great conditions early Friday.
On the weekend, we're expected to see a high pressure system try and ridge in from the west, bringing moderate to fresh S'ly winds Saturday, persisting Sunday out of the S/SW. There's an outside change for W'ly winds early Saturday on the Surf Coast but we'll review and confirm this on Friday.
These onshore winds will spoil a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell due late Saturday afternoon, generated by the final frontal system in the current progression. This being a polar front projecting up and towards Western Australia today. A fetch of SW gales will be generated at a less than ideal angle for our region, but we'll still see some size spreading radially towards us, arriving late in the day Saturday.
In the morning Saturday, the Surf Coast looks to be smaller and to 3ft, with 4-5ft+ sets to the east, building late in the day to 3-4ft and 6ft respectively.
Sunday will see the swell easing from a touch smaller size but with those onshore winds.
Monday should be cleaner on the Surf Coast as winds tend back to the W/NW, but with smaller, easing surf from 2ft+.
Longer term, as pointed out last forecast a new, long-period SW groundswell is due on Tuesday, generated by a strong polar low firing up south-west of Western Australia, tracking slowly east under the country on the weekend. At this stage a secondary strong low spawning off the back of the polar system looks to project up and into Tasmania at a similar time as the swell arrival. This will bring strong S/SW winds on Tuesday, though improving rapidly Wednesday and swinging back to the N'th as the high then pushes in proper.
Size wise, the groundswell and additional swell from the low look to come in at 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east Tuesday, easing Wednesday but we'll review this in Friday's update.
Comments
Interesting the difference with the forecaster notes and the auto forecast size for tomorrow. Me, I'll go with the notes :)
Yeah the models have lost track of the swells a bit eh,
Was really slow out there at dawn, has picked up a bit through the day though.
*reads the models and packs a 5'6" twin keel fish*
*forced to become Tom Curren*
Sounds like it's going to be months before us city folk are allowed out of the cage. Grim.
The ‘around 23rd’ and ‘70% vac rate’ sound so fucking empty. Without trying to open can of worms but has Danny boy dug he 0 case hole so deep the only way is to keep digging? Assuming we hit the core aka rock bottom and if we keep digging we might pop back out the other side?
I really, really fucking feel for small businesses and people cooped up. I’m lucky enough to have work to go to and a beach close by.
My tip is the pool will open again before we can get to the coast. They will probs do that 25km thing again like they did last year.
If it does open, they'll be loving it. Will get heavily used.
I've been making do with paddles and swims in the bay. 9/10 conditions this morning. Equivalent to 6ft surf coast with a 10 knot NW'ly.
Would have been a 10/10 but there were hundreds and hundreds of jellyfish.
Nick Bone, hopefully MP gets carved out this time. Looks like regions should be relatively free by end of next week.
Won’t be separated.
Mayor has written a formal letter to Dan - no response..
Our MP Chris Payne said we will never be exempt. Something along the longs that we border City Of Frankston and they have cases or whatever.
Were the jelly red/dark redish? Saw heaps on the foreshore on weekend.
Just completely sucks.
Double vaxxed.
My postcode has zero cases.
Every postcode bordering my suburb has zero cases.
Can't go to the coast.
Have thought of 'fuck it' and just going down anyway.
Drive in, surf and drive off, picking a day when it is onshore and crappy when no local would bother.
At this stage I would take anything.
But I just can't do it.
Lasted this long doing the right thing so will continue but geez, I can not last much longer.
Will never complain about crowds or less than ideal swell and wind directions ever again. (who am I kidding, of course I probably will).
Head is a mess. This is brutal.
That sarks, NB. Should keep crowds down hopefully though.
Purplish / dark red centre and the rest of the body were clear. Not overly big. Bigger ones the size of a first with clear tentacles up to about 20cm long.
Used to see really big ones at Williamstown. Same colour but about the size of a soccer ball.
WS that really is fucked.
Just go for a drive and park down one of the streets that has a wave at the end of it from rye to Portsea. Your mental health will love you for it.
Today’s announcement was pathetically predictable. This cunts killing this state.
Just. Go. I took the afternoon off and went for a long bike ride today. Feel so much better for it. Go surf - you need it.
**Edit - I wrote this before I read the comments below, but my opinion hasn't changed. Please don't get caught.
https://www.committeeformp.com.au/news-and-media/open-letter-to-victoria...
Another letter from our business group sent to Danny boy and Sutton today. I do get a heavy ‘how dare they question the medical advice’ vibe from Dan so he will probably keep us under lockdown out of spite alone. Wouldn’t the regional designation actually make us safer with the license checks at all businesses, threat of a $5k fine for non-residents etc?
Hang in there WS. I know how tough it is but hopefully it won't be too much longer.
Yeah last year when the pool opened for 25lm crew sessions were fairly empty. Was a shock when it went back to full sessions when restrictions were lifted.
Just a little heads up re anyone thinking of coming down to the surf coast. The coppers just did a sweep of the Bells carpark.
It's a high price to pay to surf devil wind 3-4 footers.
I’ll trade our devil wind for your devil wind VL. And in a show of good faith, I’ll cover 100% of the shipping costs!!
seen anyone get pinged yet Viccy? Seems strange the coppers are only ever at Bells, funnily enough I saw a car parked near bird rock a few weeks back with a current city of melb residential parking permit on the windscreen, now thats running the gauntlet
the coppers were just pulling into the carpark as I was leaving. Not sure if they were booking people or just checking the surf.
saw some coppers where I was on the Bellarine. No trouble at all just drove through the car park didn't even stop
can they book you if your homeless?
Great to be back in a 3/2 today!
See ya late June next year 4/3.
Got to say that if you're in Melbourne or Geelong or Balla-frickin-rat and doing the right thing by staying away, then good on you and I'll be more than happy to let you have a set wave or three when you can get back to the coast. In fact, I'll call you into the lot.
It seemed like half of Armstrong Creek and Geelong hit Torquay up today, it was absolutely packed in the water and out.
My better half is a medico, and the stress this shitshow - thanks to Gladarse and the PM for Sydney - is causing in the medical community is insane. While some people like to write Dan off, he made eminent sense in comments today about the fact that there are only so many medical professionals and hospital staff. If the shit hits the fan, and if Delta kicks in as per NSW (and it is likely to get much, much worse up there) there will be a huge issue with having enough Drs and nurses to treat the usual hospital issues besides the poor buggers with covid-19. The medicos in Sydney's western suburbs are at wits end with this - it's completely f*cked.
Someone earlier said Dan is killing the state. You're f*cking joking, aren't you? Of course there are financial issues, but if we let it rip, we are truly f*cked. Maybe if the PM for Sydney had have designed JobKeeper so that the fat cats couldn't rort the crap out of it and had to pay gazillions back when they made no loss in 2020/21 we would have enough $$ to keep funding JobKeeper so that normal people wouldn't have hit the wall so hard.
Yes, I'm f*cking over it. Nice one, Nic B.....
Well said tango.
This shitshow would never have happened if Scumo had done his job and built proper quarantine. This shitshow would never have happened if Scumo did his job and ordered enough vaccine, and this shitshow would never have happened if Gladys didn't believe her own press and locked down sooner.
Dan had no choice but to lock down, and NSW is the prime example of what happens when you let the virus run.
We aren't in lockdown because Dan Andrews enjoys locking people up, we are in lockdown because of lethal LNP incompetence.
Tango telling it how it is. - we are all stressing about this . Plenty of unvaccinated folk going to turn into statistics too soon in Victoria too. My doc mates in Sydney doing it tough, many called up to look after covid patients . And trust me , the last thing anyone wants is a butt doctor looking after your lungs . However - we have to have this pandemic, we have to open sooner or later . And anyone thinking about a vax, better to get it now coz tomorrow is too late . See you in the blue stuff
Yeah I said it tango and nah I’m not joking.
Well at least you're honest, goofy. I can't see the comment anymore, but I agree with VL and the Doc. What part of it don't you get? Do you think we should open up and be damned, or is your position more nuanced? It's pretty black and white to me, so I'm interested in how you see it.
Gday GF, know your general thoughts on Dan but interested to know your assessment of your local federal member and current Min for Health. Good job? Bad job? Worthy of your vote next election?
Completely agree Tango. Being in the medical system almost every week, I have seen how it's affected the staff. I can see the stress on the system. It's truly saddening that it has been seeded back into Vic, it's going to be absolutely horrible for staff and patients. For those doing the right thing, thank you so much.
You said it Tango!
Also can't stand the carnts who sprout out 'we have 4000 ICU beds empty!'
Like it's a light switch we can flick on and off.....like we have hundreds upon hundreds of medical crew just happily waiting to work in those said ICUs.
it's insane the how selfishness just gets so deeply embedded in people that they're so willing to buy into all this far right Murdoch papers crap.
As a Melb surfer I'm more than happy to wait it out.
I haven’t seen anyone on here who resembles those people stok, but come across plenty of them on social media.
Set for you Stok if I'm still around after this passes
Just scream out "I am Stok!" as soon as you reach the lineup and I'll know ;)
Haha legends!
My paddling fitness will be so screwed by the time I'm back in the water I'll need all the help I can get!
Yep, set waves all day, Stok. Just belt it out and it's all yours.
20% of 60-70 yr olds still haven't got off their negatively geared arseholes to get vaccinated despite having 6 odd months to do it or whatever the f*%k it's been. Get vaccinated or get f#&ked
Hmm, looks a little disappointing swell size this morning on the buoys, reports and cams :(
Probably a win for the exposed beaches to the east, ie opening more options but yeah, seeing on the socials the size of the swell yesterday evening, all looked on track. At least there are clean waves and warm weather ahead!
Today is accepted with open arms!
Yep, peninsula and island folk be rejoicing.
I too am anything but disappointed :)
Yeah, just the Surf Coast guys would be.
I opened my eyes in bed, checked the cams then went back to sleep knowing that no strong swell arrived, or at least it faded overnight from last night's pulse. Ah well, win some, lose some.
So in 3 weeks (maybe), you can leave your home for 3 hours instead of 2, travel 10 kms instead of 5, one parent can take a child under 12 to a playground but you can not take your mask off to eat or drink while you’re there, but still no plan for restaurants, shops, offices, gyms.
Meanwhile mental health help lines are getting more calls than ever small business’s are dying.
Yay!
We love you Dan!
Yeah rough trot for you guys eh. Feel for ya, but hang in there. All the best.
Offshore at least!
Whatever goofy. If Dan did what you wanted, we'd still have small businesses dying and mental health problems AND a thousand + cases a day just like NSW.
Vaccine rollout fiasco, Sydney Quarantine failure, and the Gladys mockdown are the three reasons why Victoria is in a lockdown. These LNP bums just needed to get 1 right and we'd be sweet. But hey, you go and chuck the toys out of the cot at Dan if it makes you happy.
We’re never going to see eye to eye on this VL.
Same with tango or anyone who agrees with you.
Anyway, it’s too nice of a day to get involved in this shit. Have a good one
You too brother
I'm not arguing against the fact that lockdowns are shithouse or that there's not economic and mental health issues galore. Quite the opposite.
But given we're in a reality where the public health system has the potential to fail with staff in iso and and hospital access for everyday heart attacks, aneurysms, lost limbs and the other mildly life-threatening goings on being constrained, the alternative is....what, exactly? I'm just fed up with people legitimately having the shits but directing their frustration at the nearest lightning rod and not appearing to understand the likely scenarios. Hence interested in the alternative views.
A good article about it all today in The Age if you have the time, or maybe save it for the rain tomorrow. Agreed, too nice a day....for mowing lawns on the surf coast, rather than surfing, damn wind.....
https://www.theage.com.au/national/we-live-longer-and-healthier-than-eve...
Would be a lot easier to take this year if it wasn’t for the monumental fuck ups and incompetence from Dan and his crew last year. Anyway, time to enjoy the sunshine before we are back to winter for another week
VL, just regarding Gladys and her 'mockdown', interested in your thoughts on Vic and NZ locking down day 1 of first sign of new cases, and yet neither has been able to control the outbreak, Victoria is tracking at a similar rate to NSW as our cases continue to rise and rise despite a hard lockdown for now 4-5 weeks, again a lockdown that started day 1. There's every chance our cases will get up to 500-1000 a day, all while in a very hard lockdown.
I should add, I hate all politicians, self-interested fwits, so yes ScoMo fucked up (I can't think of much he has done right), Dan's a heartless bastard, Gladys is an arrogant muppet, Anastacia is just plain evil and McGowan is a smug clown, so I'm not interested in playing team politics, my point is more that maybe, just maybe, these hard lockdowns just don't work with Delta once it gets into essential workers.
Just wanted to say how much I feel for you Victorians. You all did such a bloody good job in that previous wave and really were the toast of a nation.
I’m on the far north coast nsw. We locked down despite no cases within coo-ee and people are mighty frustrated with the Gladys / Anastasia bullshit.
But despite this what we are doing here is nothing compared with Victoria so once again I take my hat off.
Hope you’re all stroking into an offshore, blue gem before you know it. Take care.
7/10 for the MP this morn. Is that a first master B.
Definitely a moment of respect and condolence to those in Vic toughing out every day 24 at a time.
Lucky enough to live in Melbs late, late 90's for a couple of years. Allways seemed like a tight, proud community. Despite the criminals over here and the bottom scum over there and the top 1% over yonder, collectively Melbournians embraced it all as an identity.
Surfed Bells and Winki twice each and still some of my clearest surfing memories. Hope you all get some waves now and in the future.
Definitely on the 3footish side of 4-6ft today. Is that a 6pack Craig owes the computer?
Models back on track!
Yep, doh! You jinxed it VJ ;p
aaaargh no, I'll shut up till after next time
in other news, the young apprentice got punk'd a 6 pack at work and there was much amusement
Roughly What time we expecting that wind change tomorrow gurus?
Just thought I would let everyone know that bone got the barrel of the bank that’s almost within 5km of his home
Hahaha.
And greyhound, 7am..
10am
Ta mate..
bloody hell that wind thing is confusing, first time I have seen St Andrews on a wind map.
Models on Windy a bit all over the shop tomorrow with one offering a deus ex machina
how I love how the Otways work their magic to bend wind
Models nailed the wind FC..
Forecast or 10am..
Observed for 10am..
