Large swell with warm offshore winds
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 1st September)
Best Days: Today, Thursday for experienced surfers, possibly early Friday, Wednesday and Thursday next week
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Mod-large W/SW groundswell for tomorrow AM, with a secondary slightly smaller, reinforcing pulse for the PM with strong N/NE winds
- Easing W/SW groundswell Fri with early variable winds, freshening from the S/SW mid-morning
- Moderate sized, reinforcing W/SW groundswell for late Sat PM with mod-fresh S winds (possibly W at dawn)
- Easing W/SW groundswell Sun with mod-fresh S/SW winds
- Easing W/SW swell Mon with W/NW tending SW winds
- Large SW groundswell for Tue with strong S/SW winds, easing Wed with N winds
Slow, small and generally average yesterday with a touch less size than Monday and bumpy conditions on the exposed beaches to the west.
Today however is much better, with the first day of September bringing in a good, mid-period W/SW swell with local offshore winds. The Surf Coast is a clean 3-4ft with options across both the beaches and reefs, while the exposed beaches to the east are bigger and for the experienced.
We should see a touch more size developing through the day across both regions as winds tend E/NE on the Surf Coast and hold from the N/NE-NE to the east.
This week and next (Sep 2 - 10)
The kick in size seen across the state today is moderate sized, mid-period energy, generated by the initial stages of a strong frontal progression firing up and under Western Australia on the weekend and earlier this week.
Into tomorrow we should see a larger, stronger W/SW groundswell peaking through the morning, generated by the strongest part of the frontal progression, that being severe-gales under Western Australia on Monday afternoon/evening.
This should provide larger 4-6ft sets across the Surf Coast swell magnets tomorrow morning (smaller in more protected spots), with 8ft sets on the Mornington Peninsula.
A reinforcing W/SW groundswell is due into the late afternoon and this will just slow the easing trend, generated by gale to severe-gale W/NW winds tracking east-southeast under Western Australia last night.
Size wise this looks to be a touch smaller than forecast on Monday and coming in at 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east tomorrow afternoon, with easing surf from 4ft and 6ft+ respectively due Friday morning.
Looking at the local winds, and this approaching but south-east slipping front will bring strong N/NE winds tomorrow, favouring selected breaks, with Friday morning seeing variable winds ahead of a trough and change, bringing freshening S/SW winds mid-morning. These variable winds could be light onshore, so make the most of tomorrow and don't bank on great conditions early Friday.
On the weekend, we're expected to see a high pressure system try and ridge in from the west, bringing moderate to fresh S'ly winds Saturday, persisting Sunday out of the S/SW. There's an outside change for W'ly winds early Saturday on the Surf Coast but we'll review and confirm this on Friday.
These onshore winds will spoil a new, inconsistent W/SW groundswell due late Saturday afternoon, generated by the final frontal system in the current progression. This being a polar front projecting up and towards Western Australia today. A fetch of SW gales will be generated at a less than ideal angle for our region, but we'll still see some size spreading radially towards us, arriving late in the day Saturday.
In the morning Saturday, the Surf Coast looks to be smaller and to 3ft, with 4-5ft+ sets to the east, building late in the day to 3-4ft and 6ft respectively.
Sunday will see the swell easing from a touch smaller size but with those onshore winds.
Monday should be cleaner on the Surf Coast as winds tend back to the W/NW, but with smaller, easing surf from 2ft+.
Longer term, as pointed out last forecast a new, long-period SW groundswell is due on Tuesday, generated by a strong polar low firing up south-west of Western Australia, tracking slowly east under the country on the weekend. At this stage a secondary strong low spawning off the back of the polar system looks to project up and into Tasmania at a similar time as the swell arrival. This will bring strong S/SW winds on Tuesday, though improving rapidly Wednesday and swinging back to the N'th as the high then pushes in proper.
Size wise, the groundswell and additional swell from the low look to come in at 4-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft to the east Tuesday, easing Wednesday but we'll review this in Friday's update.