Fun run of surf over the coming days

Craig Brokensha picture
Craig Brokensha (Craig)

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 4th June)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday, Tuesday morning protected spots, possibly Wednesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing mix of swells tomorrow with strengthening N/NW winds
  • Building mid-period W/SW swell Sun with fresh N/NW winds, holding Mon with a slightly bigger SW pulse for the arvo with strong N winds
  • Easing SW swell Tue with W/NW tending W/SW winds
  • Good W/SW groundswell building Wed PM, peaking Thu AM with variable tending onshore SE winds

Recap

Fun waves for the patient and keen across most locations yesterday with Wednesday afternoon's inconsistent, mid-period SW swell easing back from 2ft and 3-4ft respectively with light, variable winds.

Today we've got a mix of new SW groundswell and additional mid-period swell to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft to the east but with less than ideal conditions as a cold front pushes through.

This weekend and next week (Jun 5 - 11)

Today's cold, wet weather will clear into tomorrow as the cold front linked to it pushes east and another frontal system approaches from the west.

This will see winds swing fresh N/NW tomorrow, strengthening into the afternoon along with a mix of easing swells from 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Surf Coast early and 5-6ft to the east.

It looks like we'll see a temporary low point in swell early Sunday ahead of a new mid-period W/SW swell building through the day, generated by strong to gale-force pre-frontal W/NW winds, associated with the incoming front.

The Surf Coast will likely be 2-3ft in the morning, 3-5ft to the east with the new swell building to 3ft and 4-5ft+ respectively through the afternoon. Winds will persist from the N/NW, fresh to strong at times, with Monday seeing strong N'ly winds (possibly tending N/NE at times east of Melbourne).

This will be with similar levels of W/SW swell to Sunday afternoon, while some new, mid-period SW energy is due into the afternoon.

The better aligned SW swell should be generated by a broader trailing fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW winds on the backside of the frontal system, producing a bit more size to 3-4ft and 6ft respectively through the afternoon, easing from a similar size Tuesday morning.

Now, on Tuesday we're likely to see a small window of early W/NW winds before a W/SW change moves through as a broad, cold mid-latitude pushes in from the east and up across the south-east of the country.

The exact movements of the low and its position are still a little unsure but what's most likely is that we'll see it bringing variable tending onshore winds Wednesday as it drifts east across us, then strong SE overnight from the backside of the low, easing Thursday.

Depending on whether it deepens off the East Coast we may see stronger gales projected into us and a stormy SE windswell developing easing late week as winds improve.

Either way, a moderate sized W/SW groundswell is due from the earlier stages of the low at polar latitudes Sunday, arriving Tuesday afternoon and peaking Wednesday morning. Size wise 4-5ft sets are due on the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east but with those tricky winds.

Check back here Monday for a clearer idea on how the winds will play out into Wednesday and Thursday. In the meantime enjoy the weekend and early next week!

Comments

yourightgeezer's picture
yourightgeezer's picture
yourightgeezer Friday, 4 Jun 2021 at 11:00am

Has anyone got a link for a work permit so I can travel from Melb-regional vic to (work) haha? Gonna get some of the URBNSURF board riders down the coast for a bit of a demonstration on expert tube riding. Yew

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird Friday, 4 Jun 2021 at 12:12pm

No ring of steal anymore! Didn't you see the post on the URBNSURF boardriders page? We are leaving at 6.30am for a 8am arrival at Winki

bradpitted69's picture
bradpitted69's picture
bradpitted69 Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 7:58am

Don’t you morons watch the news?!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 5 Jun 2021 at 3:11pm

https://www.news.com.au/technology/environment/significant-polar-weather...

Gotta admit I love these winter cold event stories! Was testing out warmest wettie/bootie combos today in anticipation. Pity the winds will be a bit funky.

"“Occasionally though, a bubble of cold air will break away from that vortex and drift up and over eastern Australia.

“When that happens at this time of year, we’re looking at a high potential for very heavy rain, windy conditions and snow.”

Called a “cold pool”, this scenario is likely to begin playing out from Monday in South Australia reaching much of NSW by midweek."

Now what are the odds of snow at Kinglake, Ballarat, Otways....

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 9:37am

Did Dan really fall down the stairs?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 10:03am

Heard so many Chinese whispers around that story.

rorpeedo's picture
rorpeedo's picture
rorpeedo Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 6:07pm

I’m pretty sure his injuries are side affects of the pzeifer jab.

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 10:08am

yeah heard about that one

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 12:46pm

Behold the Liberal Party base in Victoria in all its glory. It's not much more than conspiracy theorists, idiot ex footballers and basketballers, and general all round anti-science anti-lockdown fucksticks who are too stupid to know what would happed if they got their own way re Covid. O'brien (the opposition leader for those who don't know) has an approval rating of 15% and he is, by far, their best politician. The rest of that mob are absolute fucking muppets who spend most of their time undermine important health massages.
This Trump style shit has no place in Australia, and I look forward to the LNP getting absolutely wiped out at the next election.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 1:44pm

Anyway, some nice small and clean shapely swells at present, a warmer day today.

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 6:45pm

Beautiful winter's night on the surf coast. Feels like NSW in winter. More of this please

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Sunday, 6 Jun 2021 at 9:38pm

Freaking cold here in the city. Like get into your bones cold.

Wonder if I'll be surfing by the end of this week...even just in the pool?

Kitesurfing and bay paddles seeing me through well. Bay water is cold but managable.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Monday, 7 Jun 2021 at 8:29am

Looking at the weekend forecast don’t think there will be much surfing with or without lockdown tbh

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Monday, 7 Jun 2021 at 9:19am

There was PLENTY done this weekend just gone but...........

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Monday, 7 Jun 2021 at 9:55am

Bloody great weekend.