Craig

Large, strong swell late week

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 21st April)

Best Days: Tomorrow afternoon protected spots, Friday protected spots, Saturday protected spots, early Sunday Surf Coast, Monday morning Surf Coast, beaches Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Building mid-period surf tomorrow afternoon with strong NW tending W winds
  • Large, long-period SW groundswell for Fri with fresh W/NW winds, shifting W/SW-SW into the afternoon
  • Large, easing SW groundswell Sat with moderate to fresh W/NW tending W winds, smaller Sun with W/SW-SW winds (early W/NW Surf Coast)
  • Slower next week

Recap

Easing surf yesterday though still 3-4ft on the swell magnets on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east but morning offshore winds quickly gave into a strong onshore change.

Today we've got a weaker, mixed up mid-period swell with OK conditions for the keen on the Surf Coast but not to the quality we've seen of late.

This week and weekend (Apr 22 - 25)

We'll, we've got a temporary low point in swell tomorrow morning before large surf graces the coast again into Friday and Saturday.

This run of large surf will be associated with a deep and intense polar low that formed on Monday, dropping over 24hPa within 24 hours classifying it as a 'bombing' low.

A great, broad fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds are being generated around the low, with it forecast to project east-northeast towards us today while weakening slightly. The secondary front firing up immediately on the back of the low should generate additional severe-gale W/SW winds, helping prolong the large groundswell event after the initial increase Friday.

Looking at tomorrow and we'll see some mid-period energy building ahead of the groundswell that's due into the evening, with small 2ft waves on the Surf Coast in the morning (3-4ft to the east), building to 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively by dark. Winds will be strong from the NW early tomorrow, shifting W/NW and then W into the afternoon.

Moving onto Friday and we should see 6-8ft+ waves on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 10ft+ to the east and with a moderate to fresh W/NW breeze, shifting W/SW-SW midday/early afternoon. With the size, power and consistency of the swell it'll only be for experienced boardriders.

Saturday morning will still be large but slowly easing with easy 6ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 8ft+ to the east and with a gusty W/NW offshore that should hold out of the W into the afternoon. Sunday will be smaller and a bit weaker though persistent trailing polar activity should keep the Surf Coast magnets around 3-4ft with 5-6ft sets to the east. Winds will be less favourable and generally W/SW-SW, early W-WNW on the Surf Coast.

Monday will become smaller with the surf easing from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east. The models are showing a slight lift in size but this is incorrect and an artefact of a distant, groundswell being mixed in with the existing energy.

Winds will be much lighter and W/NW during the morning on the Surf Coast, light SW on the Mornington Peninsula and possibly NW on Phillip Island ahead of sea breezes. Tuesday should become cleaner on the beaches east of Melbourne but we'll review this Friday.

Longer term the outlook is a bit quiet, but check back Friday for a clearer idea on next week and beyond.

Comments

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Wednesday, 21 Apr 2021 at 10:46am

And the forey is a pleasure to look at, as expected..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 21 Apr 2021 at 10:49am

Ha, always a beaut.

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja Wednesday, 21 Apr 2021 at 10:49am

I love purple blobs!!

tomlecerf's picture
tomlecerf's picture
tomlecerf Wednesday, 21 Apr 2021 at 12:02pm

How does the swell size compare to what came the other week?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 21 Apr 2021 at 12:22pm

There's been a few, bigger than the weekend just gone but not as big as the one before that.

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 8:52am

More favourable winds though

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 5:55pm

Sorrel on the way up

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 6:20pm

Yup.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 7:28pm

Looks like there’ll be sets coming from the sky in the morning. Interesting looking at CS now compared to Monday (and the size that hit the coast then).

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 7:46pm

What did sorell get to monday Bnkref?

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 7:49pm

Looks to have peaked on Monday at about 8m @16 seconds

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 7:54pm

wow it was max 12m earlier when i looked

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 9:22pm

Now 12m @18 seconds! Good luck to anyone having a crack.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Thursday, 22 Apr 2021 at 9:36pm

Jesus it’s gonna be big big

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 7:09am

And it looks trash on the surf cam

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 8:11am

How big on the surf coast?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 9:30am

Bells/Winki look like 10ft sets, rest of the coast 6-8ft range.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 9:22am

yeah, how big and whats it like?

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 9:49am

Many having a crack at Bells and Winki?

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:07am
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:10am

Well when I say good - you can get a sense of the size in the last few shots of Winki. Looks decent but pretty wild elsewhere.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:26am

Wow. That looks big and building! Bells looking sick! The same swell here yesterday was very consistent and would have peaks up and down all through the day. Here's the buoy from Albany, looks like shark teeth the way it goes up and down. Should be a good swell all day there. Yew! Enjoy. http://www.srosurf.com/allwabuoy.html

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 7:34pm

Yea swell size swung so much all day

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 7:39pm

Yeah cool. Thanks. Good to hear same characteristics. Today was slightly smaller but solid as all day still and again, went up again through day.....so hopefully the same for you guys. Yew!

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:04am

Looks like CS peaked at almost 16m @20 seconds. Big numbers.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:07am
freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:30am

Anyone been out there and got a piece of it?

how was it?

Age's picture
Age's picture
Age Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:47am

What is so unique about Bells/Winki that the size is so much larger across those two breaks compared to the rest of the coast (even those that face a similar direction and are not too far away)? Is it simply the ocean bathymetry?

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:51am

I always guesses it was furthest out of the lee of Cape Otway?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:55am

Has to be bathymetry but the charts don't show up anything that stands out.

And BD, spots immediately further to the east don't see the size of Bells/Winki, they are the true magnets.

Age's picture
Age's picture
Age Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 10:58am

It doesn't appear to matter what the swell direction is, what the swell size is ... it is just always bigger at Bells and Winki and often by a sizable margin.

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 6:09pm

I thought plaves to the East were tucked slightly NE of the Bells Winki stretch hence more shadowing?? By the time you get around to point nepean ur out of the protection of Torquay, Barwon, hence dramatic jump in size again.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 11:10am

It should be noted that I blame Stok for the crowds in Westerport this morning.
One spot was the busiest I’ve seen it.
Stok, influencer of the year.

Fun morning though.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 11:29am

I got a good fill, some pretty solid sets came through with the best of it at 1st light

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 3:07pm

Hey it was better than any of the pics I've seen of the surf coast!

Crowd wasn't too bad either!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 11:53am

Pumping freeride. Couple of 10 foot sets at bells and clean.
Some good tubes at Winkipop

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:09pm

Bells and Winki were 8-10ft with the occasional bigger one. It was a pretty mean swell with plenty of sweep, clean up sets, injuries, broken boards etc.
One bloke did a big turn in Bells end section only to realise this isn't the WSL and there's no jet ski pickup. Luckily his trip across the button was gentle.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:14pm

cheers gents.
I was thinking there would be some 10 ft sets.

Good day for a bigger board eh.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:28pm

Not sure if this will work

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A post shared by Juc_Media (@juc_media)

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:53pm

Fixed it up for ya

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:56pm

Little worker gnome in the background.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:59pm

haha, thanks
Is there a simple way for us to do it ourselves?

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:05pm

Unfortunately not at the moment, gotta wait for the gnome and if he deems the post to be worthy.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:29pm

whoa, thats insane.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:33pm

Geez that’s proper. Hats off to those willing to give that a crack.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:35pm

Big bazza

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A post shared by Simon Keeble (@s.keebs)

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:38pm

Wow, great read of the wave!

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:40pm

Caption suggests it's T-Ray.
Still got it, if so.
Big wave and turn in the earlier post is Tim Stevenson

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 6:11pm

Good bloke Timmy and he rips!!

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:47pm

Epic, absolutely nailed that wave, great read.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:23pm

How was the speed coming out of that!

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:41pm

was a great read.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:43pm

Looks like it would have been a day fit for the 50 year storm invitational?

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:55pm

Yeah I was wondering about that. Is there a comp currently in waiting period?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 12:56pm

I think so Lostdoggy
Myself and 3 others had to bail under one wave. It looked every bit of 10 foot from where I was. Came up and one guy had snapped his leggy, one snapped his board and the other ones board hit him on the face under the water and broke his jaw. ( think it was Shama Buttonshaw). A few guys paddled him way out wide aiming to paddle him in through Jan Juc and eventually a ski came and got him way out the back of Winkipop.
It was a powerful swell for sure

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:03pm

You were at bells goofyfoot? How'd you go getting out? Looks like a nightmare on the really big days with all that water rushing down towards the Button.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:14pm

Got lucky on the second try. Some guys got out first go and others took 3 or 4 attempts. They must of been exhausted lol
Craig I was expecting it to be longer but really want too long.
Adam Robertson was out, far out he surfs good

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:06pm

Shit heavy GF, how was the hold down or did you get semi-lucky? Good on you for getting out and amongst it!

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 2:01pm

Great stuff GF. Saw you made the Shyama clip. Bomb!

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 7:47pm

I Was the first to notice him and helped push him out the back out of the impact zone. Going in wasn’t an option in the state he was in, was gonna paddle to cozy but luckily the ski finally came

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:07pm

Can confirm it was Shama with the suspected broken jaw. Hats off to Mark "Flanno" Flanagan who did the primary care duties after getting an absolute bomb. Legendary effort.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:12pm

hope he heals up quickly.

What board did you ride GF?

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:21pm

Rode an 8’0 free.

lostdoggy's picture
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lostdoggy Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:44pm

Sorry to keep spamming.

 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

A post shared by Dean Snow (@bluegums)

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:47pm

that’s it!
I didn’t realise he went for it I thought he bailed too. That was me in the bottom right corner at the start ha ha ha

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:51pm

Fark!

Jono's picture
Jono's picture
Jono Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:52pm

Don't apologise, keep going.

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:56pm

.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:44pm

Would love to get one on my 7’6”.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:46pm

Gary surfed a bit further down the coast. 8ft on the sets with a couple of bigger ones. Rode an 8’0”

Lot of water in the sets and some fantastic waves around.

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 1:47pm

Gary’s not sure how much the tub surfing helped him today, Steve. Aside from the paddling

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 2:21pm

Would enjoy hearing a story of a tulla tub surfer that feels they've improved enough to tackle Bells on a day like today. Unhappy ending I would imagine.

Love seeing blokes with bigger balls and ability than me tackle days like today!

Gary G's picture
Gary G's picture
Gary G Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 4:24pm

If you see someone saddling up an 8.0 at the tub, Gary's pretty sure they're compensating for something....

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 2:37pm

Were any of the girls out there today? A couple of the young local (female) chargers hit Bells on that enormous day back in June 2017.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 3:08pm

There were a couple of young girls out. I think it was Bella and someone else I'd never seen before. Reckon they were on too short a boards. Trying to pick off the little ones on short boards was just a recipe for getting rolled by the sets.
I didn't see many waves being ridden on boards under 7'6".

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 3:32pm

Thanks VL. Yeah you'd want plenty of foam under you today.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 2:56pm

right on Gaz G.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 3:06pm

Glad to see that the much over hyped surf coast is attracting the 'media attention', whereas the epic-ness unfolding over in Western Port flew under the radar!

Truly a last respite for the core lords out there.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 3:09pm

Stok, you are so lucky there's no social media attention on the epic waves in Western Port. I so would have surfed those WP big spinning barrels today if I had enough time to get there.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 4:03pm

It is rather amusing about how SC surfers go on about the crowds, and yet for the last two weeks the socials have absolutely lit up day after day with footage of the SC pumping. I get those complaining aren't those posting, and these aren't secret spots, but still....hype train has been pretty solid. Guess that's just social media these days.

Surely though on a big day like today at Bells/Winki you aren't fighting the crowds so much as you're ability not to get worked over

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Friday, 23 Apr 2021 at 4:12pm

Right? It’s not like it’s a secret where solid waves are if you want em? (Spoiler alert ; it’s not western port....)