Large, strong swell late week
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 21st April)
Best Days: Tomorrow afternoon protected spots, Friday protected spots, Saturday protected spots, early Sunday Surf Coast, Monday morning Surf Coast, beaches Tuesday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Building mid-period surf tomorrow afternoon with strong NW tending W winds
- Large, long-period SW groundswell for Fri with fresh W/NW winds, shifting W/SW-SW into the afternoon
- Large, easing SW groundswell Sat with moderate to fresh W/NW tending W winds, smaller Sun with W/SW-SW winds (early W/NW Surf Coast)
- Slower next week
Easing surf yesterday though still 3-4ft on the swell magnets on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east but morning offshore winds quickly gave into a strong onshore change.
Today we've got a weaker, mixed up mid-period swell with OK conditions for the keen on the Surf Coast but not to the quality we've seen of late.
This week and weekend (Apr 22 - 25)
We'll, we've got a temporary low point in swell tomorrow morning before large surf graces the coast again into Friday and Saturday.
This run of large surf will be associated with a deep and intense polar low that formed on Monday, dropping over 24hPa within 24 hours classifying it as a 'bombing' low.
A great, broad fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds are being generated around the low, with it forecast to project east-northeast towards us today while weakening slightly. The secondary front firing up immediately on the back of the low should generate additional severe-gale W/SW winds, helping prolong the large groundswell event after the initial increase Friday.
Looking at tomorrow and we'll see some mid-period energy building ahead of the groundswell that's due into the evening, with small 2ft waves on the Surf Coast in the morning (3-4ft to the east), building to 3-4ft and 5-6ft respectively by dark. Winds will be strong from the NW early tomorrow, shifting W/NW and then W into the afternoon.
Moving onto Friday and we should see 6-8ft+ waves on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 10ft+ to the east and with a moderate to fresh W/NW breeze, shifting W/SW-SW midday/early afternoon. With the size, power and consistency of the swell it'll only be for experienced boardriders.
Saturday morning will still be large but slowly easing with easy 6ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 8ft+ to the east and with a gusty W/NW offshore that should hold out of the W into the afternoon. Sunday will be smaller and a bit weaker though persistent trailing polar activity should keep the Surf Coast magnets around 3-4ft with 5-6ft sets to the east. Winds will be less favourable and generally W/SW-SW, early W-WNW on the Surf Coast.
Monday will become smaller with the surf easing from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east. The models are showing a slight lift in size but this is incorrect and an artefact of a distant, groundswell being mixed in with the existing energy.
Winds will be much lighter and W/NW during the morning on the Surf Coast, light SW on the Mornington Peninsula and possibly NW on Phillip Island ahead of sea breezes. Tuesday should become cleaner on the beaches east of Melbourne but we'll review this Friday.
Longer term the outlook is a bit quiet, but check back Friday for a clearer idea on next week and beyond.