Craig

Plenty of swell and generally favourable, though breezy winds

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th April)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday more protected spots, Saturday, Sunday morning, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Building mid-period W/SW swell this afternoon with strong W winds
  • Peak in W/SW groundswell tomorrow morning with fresh to strong NW-W/NW winds tending stronger W
  • Secondary SW and S/SW groundswells building Fri with SW winds (possibly light W early Torquay), easing Sat with a moderate W/NW tending SW breeze
  • Reinforcing SW groundswells Sun and Mon with W/NW tending SW winds Sun, fresh N/NW Mon

Recap

Good sized waves across the beaches on both regions early yesterday, with clean 3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east but the swell faded rapidly, not helped by the large incoming tide and strengthening offshore wind.

This morning we've reached a low point in swell, but we'll see a strong mid-latitude low pushing in from the west, bringing an afternoon increase in mid-period W/SW swell along with strong W'ly winds.

This week and next (Apr 15 - 23)

The strong mid-latitude low currently pushing in from the west and attached, strengthening polar front to its south-west, have reached such an intensity with the help of the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Seroja being absorbed into the storm track.

Since Monday evening we've seen a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW-W winds wrapping around the mid-latitude low, projected through our western swell window. This low is now weakening while edging in, though we're still seeing a healthy fetch of W/SW gales.

As the low continues to weaken and push through Bass Strait today we'll see building mid-period W/SW energy this afternoon ahead of the peak in W/SW groundswell tomorrow morning.

The swell will have a fair bit of west in it so expect a bit of size variation between exposed breaks and more protected spots. Size wise the Surf Coast magnets should see 4-5ft sets tomorrow morning, easing through the day with 6-8ft surf to the east.

Winds will be fresh to strong tomorrow morning and out of the NW-W/NW, shifting W/NW late morning and strengthening, then W'ly into the afternoon.

Come Friday the reinforcing and larger swell from the polar front is due to fill in. It looks like we'll see a mix of SW and S/SW groundswell energy, with a fetch of SW gales projecting up towards us tomorrow, with stronger severe-gale S/SW winds at the base of the polar front expected to generate the largest pulse for the afternoon.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should build to 5-6ft through the afternoon on the magnets with 8ft sets to the east, a touch smaller in the morning and to 4-5ft and 6ft+ respectively. Winds won't be as favourable with a gusty, easing SW breeze, but the Torquay region should see a period of lighter, early W'ly winds. It won't be great though with lots of wobble and lump.

Saturday looks much better with the easing S/SW groundswell from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east along with a moderate, morning W/NW breeze, shifting SW into the afternoon.

Moving into Sunday and Monday, we'll see some new pulses of SW groundswell from back to back cold fronts firing up on the back of the mid-latitude low/polar front combo.

Fetches of W-W/SW gales should produce moderate sized surf, with the first filling in Sunday, providing fun 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east, with a secondary similar sized pulse for Monday.

Winds will be out of the W/NW again Sunday morning, fresher SW into the afternoon, with fresh N/NW winds holding most of Monday. Longer term there's plenty more activity on the cards, but more on this Friday.

Comments

love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing ha... Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 10:36am

how big do you reckon it will get this arvo?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 10:37am

3ft range likely late.

love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing ha... Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 12:07pm

Thanks mate... not very high quality though I imagine with that gusty westerly...?

Socrates234's picture
Socrates234's picture
Socrates234 Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 11:46am

Western port Friday and Saturday seem best correct?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 12:00pm

Sure, if you like sharing 1fters with 100s of your closest longboarding mates

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 3:56pm

Don't listen to Geek - yep, absolutely the go. In fact, I'd say most swells are best handled by Westernport, it's a great stretch of coast and there's spots which handle all conditions. Usually the best bet for a good session.

tomlecerf's picture
tomlecerf's picture
tomlecerf Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 5:18pm

I thought west is best Torquay and point impossible in particular for most conditions

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 7:14pm

Nah it’s st kilda, keep an eye on the new surf cam. It’s there for a reason!

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 7:26pm

I’m confused, is Westernport east or west coast, west right?

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 8:44pm

Ironically Westernport is referred to 'East Coast'. Weird right? Such a good spot.

tomlecef - I normally don't like naming spots, but I agree, if you're unfortunate to live down that way then Torquay point and Pt Impossible is probably the most consistent spots, and can get epic most often. Otherwise it's only around 2-2.5 hours to Westernport, and although it's a 5 hour round trip, you'd get more waves and better waves.

Geef - if you live in the city, Torquay is an option, but Westernport is usually the best bet.

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 6:57am

your one of the trigger brothers aren't you stok

lost's picture
lost's picture
lost Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 9:12pm

Stock definitely surfs winki and bells and doing his best to deflect.....

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 7:21am

I admire his effort but it’s a losing battle when there’s 4-5 SC photogs and shapers with 1000s of followers each posting live updates whenever there’s more than 2ft of swell around

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 8:37am

Haha too true geek.

It’s like the Lonnie snaps photog guy who is out at the heads every time it breaks, has thousands of followers and has even written a book on the joint, yet still posts multiple photos every single time it’s on and still complains about the crowd!
He’s probably exposed the place to more people than anyone else

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 8:42am
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 8:49am

Ha!

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 11:52am

Yep....I wasn't that subtle was I.

I just saw that question asking if WP would be the go to, and often ask myself the question as to why we feel the need to share info online randomly which only acts to help surfers gather info. I do it to, and enjoy it, but it would certainly add to the noise/crowds. I'm trying to do less of it. Like - do we really need to update everyone here about how the conditions are? I get that Swellnet do it as a business, which is fine, but us free folk - why do it? Particularly those living local.

The last big onshore swell was a classic example - in this forum (and on lots of social media) there were discussions about a couple of spots which would (and did) absolutely fire under such conditions. I remember first discovering these spots and when to strike mission them online, through social media and forums such as this. I've never been there, but will likely go there at some point and add to the crowd. It's actually incredible how people complain about the crowds, and the hype, yet all work towards exposing spots, either in really conspicuous ways (such as Lonnie Snaps) or even in when they're trying to be a bit mysterious (refer comment in last forecast notes about black eyes/state borders). I do often ask myself, why? Is it really worth the short lived online gratification? Once people learn about a spot, they don't forget about it - why bring in more people on the semi secret?

Anyway....Westernport is sick.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 1:49pm

I don't know why people have been complaining about surf in Vic for so long. Westernport has been pumping for months and shows now signs of slowing down. It's like a wave pool out that way

dr-surf's picture
dr-surf's picture
dr-surf Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 5:48pm

The East Coast handles mid-late Spring, Summer and early Autumn Best and the West Coast handles mid-late Autumn, Winter and Early Spring Best. It’s why living in Melb isn’t a Deal Breaker. The Queenscliff Ferry used to get Good Business Ferrying Surfers between the Coasts and Torquay Boardriders used to hang to Compete at Woolamai over Summer Months.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 7:15pm

Thanks doc, what would we do without you

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Wednesday, 14 Apr 2021 at 8:46pm

Living in Melbourne a deal breaker? Why? You're only half an hour away from Westernport, well placed if you ask me.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 9:47am

How big on the Surf Coast reefs today?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 11:47am

You dreaming about cold water fat burgs FR? Getting over the warm water sand bottom points of hollowness?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 11:35am

3 - 4ft

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 11:37am

cheers Ringy.
get a few?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 11:42am

Quick dawny before work.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 11:41am

Looked a bit bigger from footage I saw. Plenty of crew on it.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 12:33pm

Yeah looked a touch inco but seen evidence of easy 4-5ft sets.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 4:40pm

Stop bagging Western Port folks. The place goes off. If I lived in Melbourne I'd surf there all the time. It beats dealing with the old angry local cunts on the Surf Coast.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 8:50pm

Absolutely!

Can't believe I used to drive down to TQ for more crowded, fat waves when WP has all you need, and it's so close!

AndyM's picture
AndyM's picture
AndyM Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 4:47pm

What’s worse, breezy winds or windy breezes?

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers Thursday, 15 Apr 2021 at 8:10pm

Hard to know Andy, but there seems to be a lot of unseasonal hot air coming from the West.

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 4:27pm

The former is natural and the latter after Mexican or Indian?

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 8:54am

I love Westernport when it is working. :-).Stok must work for Trigger Brothers ;-P .

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Friday, 16 Apr 2021 at 9:29am

Surfed both coasts consistently for decades. Both have good and bad but for sheer consistency the West Coast is better in the cooler months. Westernport lights up occasionally but is mostly overhyped and seriously overcrowded and there is most definitely a group of increasingly angry old and fat mal /SUP riders. In the warmer months you would think the East Coast would be outstanding but try and try and try to find a good consistent bank that lasts more than a day or two. I don’t bother now I go down to the island in summer. It’s no coincidence that vicco’s surf industry is based on the WC where the best waves are all year round.