Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th April)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday more protected spots, Saturday, Sunday morning, Monday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

• Building mid-period W/SW swell this afternoon with strong W winds
• Peak in W/SW groundswell tomorrow morning with fresh to strong NW-W/NW winds tending stronger W
• Secondary SW and S/SW groundswells building Fri with SW winds (possibly light W early Torquay), easing Sat with a moderate W/NW tending SW breeze
• Reinforcing SW groundswells Sun and Mon with W/NW tending SW winds Sun, fresh N/NW Mon

Recap

Good sized waves across the beaches on both regions early yesterday, with clean 3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 3-5ft to the east but the swell faded rapidly, not helped by the large incoming tide and strengthening offshore wind.

This morning we've reached a low point in swell, but we'll see a strong mid-latitude low pushing in from the west, bringing an afternoon increase in mid-period W/SW swell along with strong W'ly winds.

This week and next (Apr 15 - 23)

The strong mid-latitude low currently pushing in from the west and attached, strengthening polar front to its south-west, have reached such an intensity with the help of the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Seroja being absorbed into the storm track.

Since Monday evening we've seen a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW-W winds wrapping around the mid-latitude low, projected through our western swell window. This low is now weakening while edging in, though we're still seeing a healthy fetch of W/SW gales.

As the low continues to weaken and push through Bass Strait today we'll see building mid-period W/SW energy this afternoon ahead of the peak in W/SW groundswell tomorrow morning.

The swell will have a fair bit of west in it so expect a bit of size variation between exposed breaks and more protected spots. Size wise the Surf Coast magnets should see 4-5ft sets tomorrow morning, easing through the day with 6-8ft surf to the east.

Winds will be fresh to strong tomorrow morning and out of the NW-W/NW, shifting W/NW late morning and strengthening, then W'ly into the afternoon.

Come Friday the reinforcing and larger swell from the polar front is due to fill in. It looks like we'll see a mix of SW and S/SW groundswell energy, with a fetch of SW gales projecting up towards us tomorrow, with stronger severe-gale S/SW winds at the base of the polar front expected to generate the largest pulse for the afternoon.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should build to 5-6ft through the afternoon on the magnets with 8ft sets to the east, a touch smaller in the morning and to 4-5ft and 6ft+ respectively. Winds won't be as favourable with a gusty, easing SW breeze, but the Torquay region should see a period of lighter, early W'ly winds. It won't be great though with lots of wobble and lump.

Saturday looks much better with the easing S/SW groundswell from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east along with a moderate, morning W/NW breeze, shifting SW into the afternoon.

Moving into Sunday and Monday, we'll see some new pulses of SW groundswell from back to back cold fronts firing up on the back of the mid-latitude low/polar front combo.

Fetches of W-W/SW gales should produce moderate sized surf, with the first filling in Sunday, providing fun 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east, with a secondary similar sized pulse for Monday.

Winds will be out of the W/NW again Sunday morning, fresher SW into the afternoon, with fresh N/NW winds holding most of Monday. Longer term there's plenty more activity on the cards, but more on this Friday.