Craig

Fun tomorrow ahead of significant swell Sunday

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th April)

Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow morning, selected spots Sunday and Monday morning, Tuesday

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Fun SW swell tomorrow with fresh morning W/NW winds
  • Oversized SW groundswell Sun with strong SW winds, easing Mon from the S/SW with fresh, easing SW winds
  • Easing S/SW swell Tue with freshening N winds

Recap

Clean, good 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast yesterday with really fun 3-4ft sets to the east, while today a cold change has moved through with a building mid-period swell and bumpy waves for the keen west of Melbourne.

This weekend and next week (Apr 10 - 16)

The front linked to today's change in weather is bringing a mid-period increase in size today, but there'll be a slightly stronger pulse of swell for tomorrow morning, generated by the earlier stages of the front, on the polar shelf south of Western Australia.

This should provide good 3ft waves across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft set to the east under a fresh, morning W/NW breeze. Winds will shift W/SW into the afternoon so surf before lunch.

We then look at the oversized, long-period SW groundswell from the 'bombing' low that's currently slowly weakening while projecting north-east towards us today.

Satellite observations confirm a great fetch of storm-force W/SW winds in our swell window and this will continue today, weakening very slightly over the coming 24 hours as it projects right up and into Tasmania and our state tomorrow evening.

The strength, projection and pace of the storm will see an oversized, consistent and dangerous swell generated, filling in Sunday and peaking through the day to 8-10ft across the Surf Coast swell magnets, with surf to 12ft on the deepwater reefs to the east but with a strong SW breeze.

As touched on earlier this week, Monday won't offer any real respite to the onshore breeze with a fresh, but easing SW wind as the swell eases out of the S/SW from 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft range to the east.

Tuesday is still the pick as winds swing around to the N, strengthening through the day as the swell eases 3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east.

Into Wednesday stronger N tending W/NW winds will move in as the swell bottoms out and ahead of a the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Seroja (from NW WA) pushes in from the west.

Seroja will be absorbed into the westerly storm track after moving south-east across Western Australia, combining with another mid-latitude low just to its west. The swell potential from both these systems look poor at this stage, with a mid-period increase in S/SW swell for Friday with a NW offshore. More on this Monday though, have a great weekend!

Comments

love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing ha... Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 2:37pm

hey Craig. I'm out in Warnambool. When do you reckon that swell might peak out this way?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 3:39pm

Be fairly similar to locations in Bass Strait. Probably mid-morning to midday.

hugh.taylor's picture
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hugh.taylor Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 6:14pm

Hi Craig,

Would there be any decent surf at Lorne this Sunday?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 6:49pm

Sorry Hugh we don't give spot specific forecasts.

danielducrou's picture
danielducrou's picture
danielducrou Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 8:36pm

Sick! Time to hit up some novelty spots!

McGusto's picture
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McGusto Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 9:23pm

Mysto breaks to the Far East! Yew !

Matty44's picture
Matty44's picture
Matty44 Friday, 9 Apr 2021 at 10:53pm

Looks good, hopefully get an early one in the morning before heading to the big smoke with the chief of the fun police, but on another note which has been annoying me since it popped up. Nothing to do with this weeks forecast..... just a quick question. Why the fuck do we have a St Kilda surf cam???

the_b's picture
the_b's picture
the_b Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 7:08am

So you can watch bay surf and say to yourself you're not missing out.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Saturday, 10 Apr 2021 at 8:53pm

To the moon!


Pete7's picture
Pete7's picture
Pete7 Saturday, 10 Apr 2021 at 9:46pm

Now 16.6m max
Don't remember seeing it bigger

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Saturday, 10 Apr 2021 at 9:48pm

Was just thinking that, biggest I’ve seen it. Point Nepean buoy going to be 6m+ at this rate. Why the fuck am I getting on a plane to the NT right now :-(

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Saturday, 10 Apr 2021 at 11:15pm

Getting close but no cigar. Biggest recorded wave to roll past tassie was 20m on 6th of aug 2012, prior to that 19.83m back in 82. We will have to wait and see what the morning brings.. Hail is coming in sideways where I’m at and the winds certainly don’t seem to be moderating in any sort of hurry

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman Saturday, 10 Apr 2021 at 9:56pm

Max wave height 16.6m with Max period 22s. Pretty wild.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Saturday, 10 Apr 2021 at 9:57pm

Two mile should have couple fun ones

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Saturday, 10 Apr 2021 at 11:17pm

Fun been the operative word

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 5:42am

Pt Nepean Buoy 430 am 11.03 m 22.2 sec

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 7:32am

Are all the surf cams frozen for everyone, or is it just me?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 7:36am

Yep, debugging now.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 7:42am

Back

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 7:49am

Just a pile of 6-8ft junk on the S.C. Fishos is probably a human carpet.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 7:58am

Bit bigger than 6-8ft Ringy. Terrible conditions though. Good day to be next to the fire!

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 7:55am

Lorne Pt got a early crowd

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 8:21am

anywhere surfable?

vicco11's picture
vicco11's picture
vicco11 Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 8:49am

A certain point break in the west which everyone knows about but doesn't want to talk about will be firing today. Other than that some fun but nothing special novelty waves

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 9:02am

Wondering if it’d be too big? Regardless fuck driving more or less to the border

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 9:25am

Shit sand though?

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 11:21am

People worried they'll get a black eye or a punch on the nose from the locals if they talk about it?

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 3:56pm

haha. I see what you did there.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 4:00pm

I think 115 was the count in the water.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 8:43pm

At BNP???

You're shittin' me surely!

Or probably not in 2021

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 9:17pm

I think he meant Lorne.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 10:16pm

Unfortunately not

icandig's picture
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icandig Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 10:48pm

First hand intel Frodge? Anyhow far from a secret these days.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 9:13am

Eye witness.
A lot of, ‘I’ve never seen it this busy’ & ‘biggest crowds ever’ in the line up and the car park.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 9:19am

Yeah I heard was really busy. Also 2 packed chartered flights from the peninsula to another locale. Crowding from COVID into even the remotest corners shows the quicker international borders open, the better.

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 10:41am

Whoa. People missing out on international travel with money to burn? Also maybe lack of quality autumn surf and average summer must have crew pretty keen to get amongst it.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 8:19am

Zero from Torcool?

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 9:58pm

Cooked.

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 11:49am

Took the early drive down to check the known spots on the MP. Just home.

Wall to wall cars in all car parks and stupid numbers of surfers in strong cross to onshore faaaarken crumbling shit surf.

Watched and watched and watched and didn’t see one 1/2 descent wave or face.

CMa's picture
CMa's picture
CMa Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 11:52am

G’day Craig,

I have been looking at the Surf Forecast for the next week and noting the predicted wave height and the description of waist, shoulder and head high followed by multiple overheads.

According to the chart;
2 ft is waist to shoulder
3 ft … head high
4 ft …overhead
5 ft …1.5x overhead
6 ft … 2x overhead
8ft … 3x overhead
10 ft …4x overhead

Standing at 5ft 8” I do not see 4 ft as being overhead. I must be missing something fairly basic in the measuring system and descriptions. (which I have been reading and accepting for years now!)

Can you explain the relationship between the wave height in feet and the body parts description please?

Also, where is the height of a wave measured from and to in the forecasts? (wave front or back)

Is this same measure used in other parts of the surfing world, or are there regional differences?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 12:01pm

It’s very much a regional thing. Victoria and WA for example use the Hawaiian scale (that you described). Qld will use the American scale (head high = 5-6ft). Helps them justify the use of skis I guess haha

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 12:58pm

Any reports on Bells/Winki today?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 2:22pm

I watched Bells for about 30 minutes this morning. Needed a jet ski to get out and one bloke ferried about half a dozens surfers out into the lineup. There were some huge close-out sets at Southside making the paddle out behind Jarosites impossible or seriously dangerous.
The boys were sitting extremely wide (closer to the buttons than the traditional takeoff spot) and the waves were total burgers.
Size? Hard to tell because nobody caught anything while I was there. Winki looked more "organised" but you'd need a ski to get back up against the rip and there wasn't one.
Yes it was big, but there was no quality anywhere.

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 2:28pm

Thanks VL, good to hear from you

icandig's picture
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icandig Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 2:47pm

Must have got there a bit later than you VL (around 9.00). Car park packed with cars and people. Super windy and squally rain. Big, raw messy and fat surf - very hard to pick a good wave out of the mess. 3 surfers at Winki with a ski looking after them and towing back out but they were paddling; not towing into waves. Only saw 3 waves ridden over about 40 mins. Only one good one - guy on a red board going backhand - surfed it well but he got shut down and rolled. Under for about 10 seconds before popping up and picked up by the ski. Entertaining nonetheless. I 'surfed' at Lorne with about 100 punters. First wave I got dropped in on by a guy with a thick Spanish accent. We got tangled and I came up with a broken fin box. Luckily my fins (Fiberglass MR's) were OK. He was worse off - got cracked across the bridge of his nose. We both left the water. Him bleeding and me needing repairs on my board. Good times.

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 3:28pm

Pt roadknight? Addis? Inside the harbour at Apollo bay and few spots b/w Lorne and AB?

On the MP I’m hearing the one offshore and big didn’t get surfed this AM

VIC, you’re back son, good one

icandig's picture
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icandig Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 3:38pm

Didn't check Addis. Roadnight was too full and a mess, some punters sitting inside on the beachy, but I didn't get close enough to see what it was like. Didn't go past Lorne. Some reasonably good waves at Lorne. I only got half a wave and was taken out. Only packed one board :(.

Guzmund's picture
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Guzmund Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 4:59pm

Yeah checked out Bells and Winki at 1pm. Raw, massive walls and cross/onshore. Waves rolling through from Rincon to Winki. Never seen waves at Winki breaking that far out. No one out. Too big and messy.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 2:01pm

I surfed in WP this morning for the first time. Plenty of swell getting in there. Victory at sea conditions at times with the howling cross / onshore.

GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley's picture
GuySmiley Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 3:29pm

You and the entire eastern suburbs I’d wager

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 3:47pm

Spot I was at had 10-15 out. Well spread. So no issues with crowd.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 2:37pm

Whats happening with that huge Whale carcass
washed out to sea or broken up ?

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 2:49pm

After today it’d have to be in a million bits

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 3:48pm

The one on PI? Dorsal report mentioned a 5m GW at Woolies on Friday.

anthony.olsen's picture
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anthony.olsen Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 3:02pm

I watched a guy get swept for about a kilometer and then washed up in to the rocks at cathedral this morning. One guy towing cracked a few nices ones.

Ditto about sitting at Lorne point with a hundred others.

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 4:00pm

Jesus that's sketchy

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 4:03pm

roughly 50 sitting on lorne point at the moment, looks super fun but effort to reward ratio slightly skewed

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 4:40pm

Maxing Winki and someone giving it a huge crack..


Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 4:47pm

Absolute Charger! Imagine if there had been a 10-15knot offshore wind on it overnight too straighten it out and hold it up. Must had been a similar scenario way back in '81. I guess

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 5:08pm

Fucking Waimea!

Remigogo's picture
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Remigogo Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 10:34pm

... ssshhh..

bluediamond's picture
bluediamond's picture
bluediamond Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 4:45pm

Wow!!

Bnkref's picture
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Bnkref Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 6:24pm

Woah. That's epic. I don't remember seeing anything bigger from Winki.

Jd13's picture
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Jd13 Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 6:49pm

Saw a photo of rocks washed onto the road at port fairy must on Facebook

pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 7:51pm

any more shots from winki? unreal!

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 8:21pm

Checked the St Kilda cam a few times to say, have to say I'm disappointed no one was giving it a crack. Was as big as it gets!

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 8:48pm

I checked it at dawn then watched the Masters for the next 4 hours.....

jezza64's picture
jezza64's picture
jezza64 Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 9:32pm

Some awesome footage of the Tassie ferry going through the Heads. Would have been a complete spew bucket by the time they got down there. Could not pay me enough to get on.....

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Sunday, 11 Apr 2021 at 11:23pm

Winki waves above are nuts!
Did the clifftop thing on the higher tide and the wind was bracing... leaning into it was pretty fun. Sea spume was being blown up the cliff like bullets. Size wise we thought the local beachy was 8ft - plus on a couple. Then overlooked Southside later at low tide and there were consistent big sets you could see a mile out, that unloaded on Centreside - bigger than the beachy still. No one out or on the bowl. Around town there were a few bombies you don't usually see lighting up, huge lengths of whitewater. The protected, surfable stretch was a bit of a circus. Size was big but the 2009 swell where I saw the outer bombie go, then on the same wave close out Bells the whole way along, still remains greater in the memory.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 9:51am

I'd hate to see the crowds around had it been remotely offshore. The frothometer just keeps getting higher and higher. Mate said Bells crowd in the carpark and up the road was almost like the Pro.

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 9:55am

Surely if it was a bit more offshore there’d be way less people at all those protected spots mentioned above.

And the 10ft+ waves are still not gonna be that busy.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 9:58am

Yeah I can understand everyone keen to have a look at the ocean on a day like yesterday. It was a pretty wild show. Not something that happens every weekend.
And like you said surfing options were pretty limited

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 9:59am

Yeah they'd be people checking out the large waves, not surfers surely?

icandig's picture
icandig's picture
icandig Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 10:48am

Bit of both. Surfers on their way to or from somewhere else. Probably more non surfing spectators. Cars parked in the carpark, on the roadside and also some in the paddock opposite. Some could've been looking for the contest that wasn't there?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 12:51pm

Ha, could be!

GuySmiley's picture
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GuySmiley Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 10:38am
ringmaster's picture
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ringmaster Monday, 12 Apr 2021 at 11:27am

The only time the Winki/Bells car park ISN'T full these days is between about 8pm and 5am

goofyfoot's picture
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goofyfoot Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 6:18am
Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Tuesday, 13 Apr 2021 at 6:31am

Wowza!