Fun tomorrow ahead of significant swell Sunday
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 9th April)
Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow morning, selected spots Sunday and Monday morning, Tuesday
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- Fun SW swell tomorrow with fresh morning W/NW winds
- Oversized SW groundswell Sun with strong SW winds, easing Mon from the S/SW with fresh, easing SW winds
- Easing S/SW swell Tue with freshening N winds
Clean, good 2ft+ waves on the Surf Coast yesterday with really fun 3-4ft sets to the east, while today a cold change has moved through with a building mid-period swell and bumpy waves for the keen west of Melbourne.
This weekend and next week (Apr 10 - 16)
The front linked to today's change in weather is bringing a mid-period increase in size today, but there'll be a slightly stronger pulse of swell for tomorrow morning, generated by the earlier stages of the front, on the polar shelf south of Western Australia.
This should provide good 3ft waves across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft set to the east under a fresh, morning W/NW breeze. Winds will shift W/SW into the afternoon so surf before lunch.
We then look at the oversized, long-period SW groundswell from the 'bombing' low that's currently slowly weakening while projecting north-east towards us today.
Satellite observations confirm a great fetch of storm-force W/SW winds in our swell window and this will continue today, weakening very slightly over the coming 24 hours as it projects right up and into Tasmania and our state tomorrow evening.
The strength, projection and pace of the storm will see an oversized, consistent and dangerous swell generated, filling in Sunday and peaking through the day to 8-10ft across the Surf Coast swell magnets, with surf to 12ft on the deepwater reefs to the east but with a strong SW breeze.
As touched on earlier this week, Monday won't offer any real respite to the onshore breeze with a fresh, but easing SW wind as the swell eases out of the S/SW from 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 8ft range to the east.
Tuesday is still the pick as winds swing around to the N, strengthening through the day as the swell eases 3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-5ft to the east.
Into Wednesday stronger N tending W/NW winds will move in as the swell bottoms out and ahead of a the remnants of Tropical Cyclone Seroja (from NW WA) pushes in from the west.
Seroja will be absorbed into the westerly storm track after moving south-east across Western Australia, combining with another mid-latitude low just to its west. The swell potential from both these systems look poor at this stage, with a mid-period increase in S/SW swell for Friday with a NW offshore. More on this Monday though, have a great weekend!