Craig

Good weekend ahead

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 26th February)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday, Monday morning protected spots

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Easing mid-period swell tomorrow with variable tending S/SE winds
  • Inconsistent, long-period SW groundswell for Sun with variable N winds ahead of S/SE sea breezes, easing Mon with morning W/NW winds ahead of a strengthening SW change late morning
  • Poor winds and surf from Mon PM - Fri
  • Potential next weekend for E winds and a fun SW swell

Recap

A touch more swell than expected left in the tank yesterday morning with 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 4ft waves to the east. Conditions were much cleaner on the Surf Coast with an autumn feel to the morning.
Today we’ve got an increase in new mid-period swell, with the front linked to it also performing a bit better than expected bringing 3-4ft waves on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east, but with an onshore change and bumpy conditions.

This weekend and next week (Feb 27 - Mar 4)

The coming weekend is looking really fun with plenty of options for a surf with varying size.

The source of today’s lift in mid-period swell was a poorly structured cold front firing up south-west of us yesterday. Still it produced a bit of size, though it's now cleared to the east, across Tassie. This swell will ease through tomorrow as winds improve for all locations now, not just the beaches.

A variable breeze is due through the morning ahead of afternoon S/SE sea breezes. The Surf Coast looks to ease back from 2ft to possibly 3ft with surf in the 4ft range to the east.

Late in the day we may see hints of new, long-period SW groundswell, but the peak in size is expected Sunday.

The source of this swell, being another 'bombing' low that formed around the Heard Island region early this week is now weakening south-west of Tasmania. The chart right shows the current open ocean swell.

The swell will be inconsistent but strong with 4-5ft sets due on the Surf Coast magnets as it peaks Sunday, 3-5ft generally across the region with 6-8ft surf on the Mornington Peninsula. The swell could be a touch undersized at dawn but well and truly in by mid-late morning.

Conditions look good and favourable for most locations with a variable N'ly wind ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

As the swell eases Monday we've got favourable conditions for the Surf Coast with a morning W/NW breeze, shifting SW late morning and strengthening as a cold front pushes up and into us.

The cold front is actually forecast to strengthen late in our swell window, producing some weak, mid-period S/SW swell for Tuesday/Wednesday but conditions will be poor in any case as a high slowly edges in from the west.

Looking at the size Monday morning and we should see easing 3-4ft sets on the Surf Coast, with 6ft surf to the east.

Tuesday will be a bit smaller and weaker along with fresh to strong S/SW winds, a touch weaker Wednesday but still persisting out of the S/SW.

Unfortunately there's no improvement to the winds expected at all as the high sits stubbornly west of us through all of next week, possibly finally shifting east as a low starts to shove it from the Heard Island region.

The improvement looks to be slow with E'ly winds likely Saturday, E/NE-NE on Sunday along with some fun SW groundswell from a cold front skirting around the bottom flank of the high. We'll have a closer look at this Monday though and in the meantime make the most of the coming days. Have a great weekend!

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 7:48am

Lovely lines on the Surf Coast this morning.

ruckus's picture
ruckus's picture
ruckus Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 9:39am

Defo some magic sauce about. Is the bulk of the swell running a bit late Ben or Craigo? Sor and CDC just starting to ramp up now.. how’s the Nepean sig per... Solid! Yip yip

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 2:48pm

A touch frustrating this morning but super fun when you snagged one.
Quite a few one wave sets. Less than ideal in a crowded lineup.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 4:02pm

Very good weekend. More of that please Craig.

Was really thumping in to the east around late morning to lunchtime.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 4:10pm

Fun waves, could that be the busiest day anyone has ever seen the SC? Every spot I saw seemed to have more than a typical busy wkend session.

Expected it as forecast looked best it’s looked in months and cracking Sunday morning weather...but geesus, Superbank scenes at a few spots

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 7:59pm

Just about the biggest crowd I've seen paddling out to the moon light. Crazy

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 9:30pm

Yep, spot on. Full car parks at 6am with first light still 40mins away...

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 8:23pm

Super busy and breaking super wide on the reefs but super duper fun!

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound Sunday, 28 Feb 2021 at 8:49pm

What is more powerful ? Super or really ?

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 11:31am

Surely Super? Never heard of any Reallyman/womans or Reallyheros??

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 8:00pm

Mega

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 11:04am

Looks like it was a great weekend of waves, despite the crowds but as mentioned above, this was probably the best the Surf Coast has been in 4-6 months?

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 11:48am

Stretched out clean swell lines rolling in from the horizon seemed foreign.
And maybe the crowds were only bad in Torquay? I was down the road and it was shoulder to shoulder until 9 and then only 5-6 of us.
Got to look around.
Best conditions for 4 months at least!
Cooked today.

trials2k's picture
trials2k's picture
trials2k Monday, 1 Mar 2021 at 6:46pm

Yep, Sunday morning was ridiculous! I haven't seen that many people out all at once crowding the lineup and forgetting basic etiquette... Had some great waves but also had the most frustrating session I've ever had. Mixed emotions.