Craig

Embrace the easterlies

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 12th)

Best Days: Keen surfers Sunday from late morning before winds pick up to much, mid-late morning Monday, every morning from Tuesday through next weekend

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • Weak W'ly swell tomorrow AM, easing with a morning W/NW breeze, shifting SW late morning
  • Better though inconsistent SW groundswell building Sun PM with light to moderate S/SE winds, increasing, easing Mon with E/SE tending E/NE winds ahead of late sea breezes
  • Fun, mid-period SW swell Wed with morning E/NE winds, easing Thu with morning NE winds
  • Inconsistent W/SW groundswell building Fri PM, peaking Sat AM with N/NE winds

Recap

Weak, fading surf with the SE windswell being the more dominant signal yesterday, providing 1-2ft sets on the Surf Coast, 1-1.5ft to the east.

This morning the swell has reached a low point and westerly winds are favouring protected spots. Winds will shift onshore into the afternoon with a very small increase in weak new W'ly swell, discussed below.

This weekend and next week (Feb 13 - 19)

A weak mid-latitude front is currently projected east towards us, through our western swell window while generating a fetch of strong W/SW winds. A small, weak and west swell is due from this front with a very slight increase likely this afternoon/evening, though peaking tomorrow morning.

Exposed breaks on the Surf Coast should see 2ft sets, with 3-4ft sets to the east and a light W/NW breeze will favour protected spots, which will be smallest. Winds will shift SW late morning so aim for that morning paddle if desperate.

Unfortunately in the wake of tomorrow's change, winds will linger from the S/SE into Sunday, though only light to moderate through the morning, freshening later.

The surf looks to be small in the morning but our new, inconsistent SW groundswell is due through the afternoon, generated by a better, though more distant storm through this week. A fetch of W/SW gales in our medium-range swell window, south-west of WA has produced this swell and we should see it building into the afternoon, reaching an inconsistent 3ft+ late in the day on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

A drop in size is due Monday from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively (inconsistent) and conditions will start to improve as we move into a period of easterly winds. This shift in wind regime will be linked to a couple of strong highs moving in and sitting to our south-west and south-east, cradling an inland surface trough.

We'll see this pattern dominate all of next week with morning E-NE winds ahead of afternoon SE sea breezes.

Firstly on Monday though winds will be average early and out of the E/SE, but improving and tending E/NE by mid-late morning, then variable ahead of late sea breezes.

Tuesday looks great with a NE offshore but smaller surf back to 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east.

Some fun, reinforcing, mid-period SW swell is due to build Tuesday afternoon, peaking Wednesday and this will keep the exposed beaches topped up with fun waves. The source will be a drawn out, broad and not overly strong fetch of W/NW-W/SW winds.

Size wise it'll be good as it won't over power the beaches with Wednesday due to kick back in size to a more consistent 4ft east of Melbourne (possible odd bigger one) and 2ft to occasionally 3ft on the Surf Coast. Winds will shift back to the E-E/NE on Wednesday morning, but then more NE Thursday as the swell eases. Friday will be clean again with a N/NE offshore but easing, small swell.

Longer term, as touched on last update, we've got an inconsistent W/SW groundswell for next weekend, generated by a strong frontal system projecting towards WA, in our far swell window. The swell will likely build Friday and peak early Saturday and with N/NE winds, but we'll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 12:28pm

Fair weather surfers galore.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 1:22pm

Yikes. All of Vicco is back to Stage Four restrictions from 11.59pm tonight for five days until 11.59pm Wednesday. 

4 reasons to leave your home are back. Exercise for 2 hours a day permitted, 5km rule is back.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 1:28pm

Embrace the lockdown!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 1:34pm

Bummer.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 1:35pm

5km next weeks sounds sweet. Can’t wait to see what faces are about.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 2:22pm

if its safe enough for the AO to continue its safe enough to go surfing

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 2:45pm

Fuck oath.

Funny joke -

Q: What will Rafael Nadal and I have in common this lockdown?
A: Both of us will be utilising our Forehand!!

Crying laughing emoji

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 1:54pm

Gonna be a long year with these 'circuit breakers' and whatever other terms they start using to describe this shit show

Machar's picture
Machar's picture
Machar Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 2:16pm

Will be interesting to see what the crowds are like next week.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 2:25pm

I believe Gunnamatta is the cam to watch at times like these

http://www.triggerbrothers.com.au/surf-cam/gunnamatta-surfcam-2/

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 3:00pm

Ah who can forget the Covid dogs!!!!!

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 3:09pm

Humour is all we have left...

More SE winds yay

tho I'll take the NEs

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 3:46pm

Well I bought a last minute wave pool session tonight.

5 days is nothing - particularly when the surf's shite this weekend!

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog Friday, 12 Feb 2021 at 6:20pm

It was sold out at 2pm.
I missed it.

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 7:54am

The tub is shut as well yea? Circuit breaker has skunked a nice looking week on the beaches...for those of us more than 5km away!

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 8:17am

Well populated in TQ this morning.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 11:05am

see? In the corona year everyone locally who didn't already surf, bought a longboard

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 8:21am

not sure if I could exercise with my intimate partner for 2 hrs but I'll give it a go

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 9:43am

Hahahaha

dr-surf's picture
dr-surf's picture
dr-surf Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 9:47am

This Carpet Bombing Vic Approach to COVID is total Over reaction. A targeted response surely. Lockdown Melbourne but Regional Vic?

The poo man's picture
The poo man's picture
The poo man Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 10:22am

Bring back the ring of steel!!

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 11:16am

These lockdowns are fucked from a surfing perspective. Doesn't matter if people who live more than 5km away can't come here cause with nothing to do, every fucker that does live within 5km is now a 'surfer'.

Chockers this morning from Jan Juc to Centreside and for what? Slow, weak waist to occasional chest high waves that went onshore about 9am.

Same sort of conditions in 'normal' times would have seen way less traffic in the water.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 1:40pm

That's actually comical.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 2:06pm

Funnier still, got my work for the week done by about 8:30am and headed out, all was as Ringy said though I found only about 8 out on a lesser spot, then the f&cking wind came in. As I paddled out.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 3:31pm

Vics have been fucked non-stop since March last year. Locked down from March to November, then once free there's been fuck all surf anyway. Tell ya what I'm shit scared about already being in lockdown again and it's only the 2nd week of Feb.

I don't know why, but for some reason we just can not fucking get quarantine right in this state, so for now, shut it down and do not re-open it. It killed people last year and it's just gonna kill more and more businesses this year. Let the states that have shown they can manage it do so, Victoria just needs to shut up shop when it comes to hotel quarantine now. This isn't laying blame on anyone, although if I hear Dan keep saying we have the highest standards and best processes as he did even today of all days (!!!) I may get violent towards him, but as I said we just can not get it right so let those who can do it safely, do it. Enough is enough.

metadamame's picture
metadamame's picture
metadamame Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 4:03pm

What do you propose though? All Victorians lock down in other states? The unspoken issue is that Dan doesn’t throw DHHS under the bus when it would save face for him. They have been underfunded by successive state governments, and seem to have a fractured at best relationship with the government of the day. The information they gave the person with the Nebuliser is different from the health advice given to govt.

The reason it had to be a blanket circuit breaker is because those who contracted it through the hotel recirculation of air, went to or worked at a busy airport cafe. This meant that people that may have contracted it have also travelled far and wide since then. The 5 days will give a chance for symptoms to show and for the spread to stop.

As for ‘those doing it right’, NSW and WA have both had similar breakouts, so it’s unfair and opportunistic to point the finger and Dan. The federal govt have the power to implement a national, medically based and secure lockdown system and infrastructure, but are trying to avoid taking responsibility because it would be politically challenging for some of their voter base.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 6:35pm

So with these breakouts, who is catching it? It’s the workers at the hotels, whatever role they have, it’s been varied. Cleaners, admin staff, food and beverage attendants etc.

What was one of the recommendations of that multi million dollar inquiry? Home quarantine. Why can’t we look at that. Would eliminate all the workers at hotels possibly being exposed, would save returned travellers a few thousand to stay in a hotel. Invest the money in tracking device for them so we know they don’t leave home for 14 days. Why is that not looked at?

Seeing as you went all “what about the feds” as Dan’s fans always do, they have been useless, I don’t disagree. They can’t even get us vaccinated anywhere near the front of the queue, as they like to claim. But they aren’t taking over quarantine, so much is clear right or wrong.

So time for Victoria to think differently or put it on hold until enough at risk, frontline workers at least have been vaccinated.

And the final thing people need to realize is, if this virus is as bloody wildly hyper-infectious or whatever they wanna say, these hotels no matter what you do, are not built for quarantining a virus. They are tourist hotels with people in PPE trying their best but destined to fail. That is why we need to do something different, anything. Otherwise we are just living through the definition of insanity and it’s crushing people.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek Saturday, 13 Feb 2021 at 5:28pm

Couldn’t agree more DX3. Pause it until a good chunk of the Victorian population is vaccinated. Insane the lives of 6 million are turned upside down overnight for the sake of 1000 a week