Craig

Good few days of waves ahead

Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 22nd)

Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday morning, Monday ahead of the change

Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)

  • New inconsistent SW groundswell tomorrow AM ahead of stronger S/SW groundswell into the afternoon, easing slowly Sun
  • Light, variable winds Sat/Sun mornings, strengthening from the N/NE Mon ahead of a mid-late afternoon S/SW change
  • SE windswell later next week

Recap

The surf backed off in size yesterday, small and wind affected on the Surf Coast, better to the east and still 3-4ft, though slowing down. This morning the swell has bottomed out and the Surf Coast is cleanest but tiny.

This weekend and next week (Jan 23 - 29)

With the surf bottoming out this morning, we then look to the next episode of swell, and that should commence from later today. An inconsistent SW groundswell should arrive late and peak tomorrow morning, with a stronger, better S/SW groundswell filling in through the afternoon.

The first, least consistent swell was generated by a relatively weak polar low firing up south-southwest of WA earlier this week. We should see inconsistent 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east through the morning, but the stronger S/SW groundswell is currently being generated by an elongated polar fetch of W/SW gales drawn out to the south-west of Tassie.

The swell should kick to a stronger 3-4ft+ on the Surf Coast through the late afternoon, 6ft (possibly rare bigger sneaker) to the east, similar if not a touch smaller in size Sunday morning owing to the slow moving nature of the system. We'll then see the swell drop through the afternoon, down further from 2-3ft (Surf Coast) and 4ft (Mornington Peninsula) respectively.

Looking at the local winds and variable breezes should create clean conditions across most locations tomorrow morning, giving into afternoon sea breezes. Sunday looks similar though with winds taking an E/NE tendency through the morning ahead of fresh SE sea breezes.

An approaching trough on Monday will bring fresh N/NE winds at dawn, strengthening and tending N/NW on the Surf Coast ahead of a strong mid-late afternoon S/SW change. So get in through the morning for the best of it.

As touched on the last few updates, the rest of the week looks poor with the swell bottoming out, followed by an average SE windswell as a deepening inland surface trough/low drifts in from the north-east.

This will bring strong E/SE winds into Wednesday afternoon, persisting Thursday (though likely E/NE on the Mornington Peninsula in the AM) and moderate amounts of SE windswell. The swell looks to ease Friday with possibly N'ly winds (more on this Monday).

There's also an inconsistent, long-period groundswell on the cards for next weekend, but before then, make the most of the coming swells and light winds. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 22 Jan 2021 at 12:12pm

Looks like a weird a weather day Monday?

I am the bone

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 22 Jan 2021 at 7:16pm

Seriously, I need some fricking waves.... I'm on the cusp of paying $$$, just to surf in amongst other people's pee in da' tub....... just saying;(

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 22 Jan 2021 at 8:46pm

I actually looked at the tub website today for the first time. One of my friends surfed it earlier today and reckoned it was actually pretty good fun.

Gunna go up with him one weekday in Feb and have a crack. Never thought I'd do it but desperate times and all that.....

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 12:00am

Leave your inhibitions at the door and get tubed at arguably Victoria's best wave under 3ft!

Seriously...all I hear from crew who make the drive up from the coast is how sick it is, and how they can't wait to come back.

It's ok we get it....it's a pool, it's not real, it's not as pure blah blah blah. Of course the ocean is better.

Just pretend you're a grom, see it on face value and you won't be disappointed! Where else is Vicco can you go and get approx. 6 (advanced) or 20 (expert) barrels in under an hour, and not have to deal with drop ins/snaking/greedy locals.

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Friday, 22 Jan 2021 at 8:49pm

take an epoxy Ringy.
short and buoyant.
or hire one, too easy.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 22 Jan 2021 at 8:57pm

Thanks for the tip mate. Had similar feedback from a few down here that have been there.

Looking at doing 2 sessions with an hour or 2 break in between. If I'm driving all the way to the airport one hour aint going to cut it.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 2:32pm

Yeh mate that’s the approach I take, always book 2 hours when I make the effort to go there, 1 just isn’t enough to get your fill.

Repairs if you hire are pretty pricey, so it’s a risk for sure and would feel like such a waste of money to pay repairs on a hire board.

Otherwise Stok nailed it above. Go in there looking for a bit of fun and anyone who doesn’t enjoy it after you’ve had a couple hours of clean fun waves to yourself probably needs to lighten up a bit as they take themselves too seriously...

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 5:40am

What’s the go with damaging a board if you hire one? Do you have to pay for repair costs?
Or a new board if it’s snapped completely?

freeride76's picture
freeride76's picture
freeride76 commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 7:02am

I think you do have to pay repair costs.
not sure.
Stok would know.

udo's picture
udo's picture
udo commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 7:23am

Click on hire store
https://urbnsurf.com/terms/

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 7:38am

Did my first mission to the wave pool before Christmas, 36 or so of us from the same area booked the whole pool for a 2 hour session then an hour break then a 1 hour session, $220, got to choose what settings, started with the expert with beast mode at the end for the first 1/2 hour, then they put it on x beast, xx beast, xxx beast, apparently they don't do that for the normal sessions. Take off, double up feel, get barrelled. Sick fun, got a bit sick of getting barrelled in the end would've been nice to get some turns in. On x beast modes the first 3 to 4 waves are clean and perfect then they progressively get weirded out to the 11th wave. In the end I was liking the fucked up waves better than the perfect ones.
Biggest thing I noticed different than the ocean besides the obvious was 0 anticipation and 0 concern for your safety. You know exactly whats about to happen before and during your wave and if you fall off the waves have has hardly any punch, the conc is flat and forgiving and hardly any paddling, 4 strokes and you're in then drift back out in the current. Even so pretty amazing surfing waves like that in a pool. Not really any point trying to compare it to the ocean because they a completely different than each other. Like people who compare dogs and cats, both are pets but are completely different animals. Some people prefer dogs some people prefer cats. Im going back but want to organise 20 people, whole pool for a 2 hour session.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 8:17am

Nice to see size building in TQ.
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Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 6:15pm

Yes Ben, the Southern Ocean sure is one fickle mistress but when she finally gets aroused, it gets everyone wet and in the mood 'round these parts ;)

Over to you BIG Garry.....

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 25 Jan 2021 at 9:01pm

Ahhhh!.......Satisfaction. Now where's my cigarette ;)

love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing ha... commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 9:25am

Hey guys. How much swell do you reckon will be left by monday morning?

carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 12:42pm

Issues with the GFS model update? Looks like it hasn’t rerun for a day or so.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 1:37pm
carpetman's picture
carpetman's picture
carpetman commented Saturday, 23 Jan 2021 at 3:06pm

Cheers Ben

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 25 Jan 2021 at 8:57am

Noice.