Good few days of waves ahead
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 22nd)
Best Days: Saturday morning, Sunday morning, Monday ahead of the change
Features of the Forecast (tl;dr)
- New inconsistent SW groundswell tomorrow AM ahead of stronger S/SW groundswell into the afternoon, easing slowly Sun
- Light, variable winds Sat/Sun mornings, strengthening from the N/NE Mon ahead of a mid-late afternoon S/SW change
- SE windswell later next week
The surf backed off in size yesterday, small and wind affected on the Surf Coast, better to the east and still 3-4ft, though slowing down. This morning the swell has bottomed out and the Surf Coast is cleanest but tiny.
This weekend and next week (Jan 23 - 29)
With the surf bottoming out this morning, we then look to the next episode of swell, and that should commence from later today. An inconsistent SW groundswell should arrive late and peak tomorrow morning, with a stronger, better S/SW groundswell filling in through the afternoon.
The first, least consistent swell was generated by a relatively weak polar low firing up south-southwest of WA earlier this week. We should see inconsistent 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft to the east through the morning, but the stronger S/SW groundswell is currently being generated by an elongated polar fetch of W/SW gales drawn out to the south-west of Tassie.
The swell should kick to a stronger 3-4ft+ on the Surf Coast through the late afternoon, 6ft (possibly rare bigger sneaker) to the east, similar if not a touch smaller in size Sunday morning owing to the slow moving nature of the system. We'll then see the swell drop through the afternoon, down further from 2-3ft (Surf Coast) and 4ft (Mornington Peninsula) respectively.
Looking at the local winds and variable breezes should create clean conditions across most locations tomorrow morning, giving into afternoon sea breezes. Sunday looks similar though with winds taking an E/NE tendency through the morning ahead of fresh SE sea breezes.
An approaching trough on Monday will bring fresh N/NE winds at dawn, strengthening and tending N/NW on the Surf Coast ahead of a strong mid-late afternoon S/SW change. So get in through the morning for the best of it.
As touched on the last few updates, the rest of the week looks poor with the swell bottoming out, followed by an average SE windswell as a deepening inland surface trough/low drifts in from the north-east.
This will bring strong E/SE winds into Wednesday afternoon, persisting Thursday (though likely E/NE on the Mornington Peninsula in the AM) and moderate amounts of SE windswell. The swell looks to ease Friday with possibly N'ly winds (more on this Monday).
There's also an inconsistent, long-period groundswell on the cards for next weekend, but before then, make the most of the coming swells and light winds. Have a great weekend!