thermalben

Excellent outlook for next week

Victorian Surf Forecast by Ben Matson (issued Friday 16th October)

Best Days: Sat: early variable/offshore winds, and a steady mix of easing SW and SE swells. Onshores expected around lunch. Sun: small late pulse of surf, though prob still wind affected. Tues/Wed/Thurs/Fri: long period SW groundswells with generally light winds and sea breezes. 

Recap: Easing surf on Thursday (1-2ft west of Melbourne, 2-3ft east) was accompanied by variable winds ahead of a mid-late afternoon SW change. Winds have veered SE this morning as the swell’s bottomed out though we are expecting a new SW groundswell to build through the day.

This weekend (Oct 17 - 18)

*This week’s Forecaster Notes will be a little erratic as Craig’s on annual leave*

So, the weekend’s winds are still a little flukey but we’ve now got a more easily identifiable window of opportunity. And that is Saturday morning. 

The current SE airstream will trend E’ly during the day and then NE overnight as it eases back in strength, to become light and variable early Saturday morning. Without a synoptic offshore, most locations will still see some residual surface wobble but the wave faces will be clean and the surf will slowly improve.

That is.. until the trough pushes over the region and SW winds on its western flank envelop the coast.

The timing on this isn’t clear (slow moving troughs are erratic in nature, and will often stall unexpectedly), though the latest guidance suggests an arrival just before lunch on the Surf Coast, and just after across the Peninsula. Initially, wind strengths won’t be too strong (it won’t be the same as a frontal passage), so we’ll see a gradual freshening throughout the afternoon. 

As for surf, the approaching but yet-to-appear SW groundswell due this afternoon will peak overnight and then ease steadily through Saturday. We should see inconsistent 3-4ft sets across the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves east of Melbourne from this source.

Additionally, today’s developing easterly flow through Bass Strait will add a secondary SE swell into the water - not showing very well east of Melbourne, but the Surf Coast (mainly west from Torquay) should pick up some peaky 2-3ft sets from this source. 

This means that the regional reefs and points will offer a much different kind of wave than we normally see, and you’ll be best off hitting up the wide open beaches where there’ll be a peaky range of options right along the coast.

Moderate to fresh S/SW winds are expected to persist into Sunday on the backside of the trough. There may be pockets of light variable winds here and there (probably only just the Surf Coast, likely early morning at best) but overall we’re not likely to see anything amazing in the surf department.

Early morning will see small leftovers from Saturday, but a new swell source has actually popped up on the charts since Wednesday’s notes were prepared - another polar low (similar to the one generating this afternoon’s energy) will strengthen today off the ice shelf below WA and SA (see below), and we’ll see an afternoon pulse of S/SW groundswell that should rebuild the Surf Coast back up to 3ft and the East Coasts to 4-5ft by the end of the day.

Keep an eye on the wind obs in case the breeze backs off after lunch, as there could be an OK late lumpy session west from Melbourne.

Next week (Oct 19 onwards)

A weak ridge of high pressure will dominate the Victorian region for much of next week, leading to generally light variable winds most days. Sunday's late pulse of SW swell will ease slowly through Monday though there should be some fun, slightly lumpy waves early as winds become variable. 

A series of powerful Southern Ocean lows in our far swell window are generating excellent long period swells that will arrive in succession from Monday evening onwards (leading edges Mon and Wed nights could be around 20+ seconds).

The latest model guidance has strengthened these systems a little more since Wednesday and also maintained their strength a little closer to the mainland, which will assist in maximising surf size potential throughout Victorian waters. The second swell in particular looks to be the biggest of the two. 

However, the large travel distance will result in very inconsistent set waves. This will be most prominent on Tuesday and Wednesday, when the first groundswell (see source above) will essentially be the only swell source in the water. On Thursday and Friday, the second long period groundswell will sit on top of decaying energy from the previous swell event, which (despite being smaller in size) will help to reduce the perceived inconsistency a little.

So, how big? At this stage I think we’ll see Tuesday building to 4-5ft across the Torquay swell magnets by the afternoon, possibly undersized early morning (expect flat spells of up to 15-20 mins between set waves). This swell should hold into Wednesday morning before easing through the day. Expect a peak early of Melbourne in the 6ft+ range.

Thursday’s new swell (see source below) should rebuild to between 4ft and 6ft across the Surf Coast’s swell magnets, and east of Melbourne I think we’ll see powerful strong 6-8ft+ sets. Size should persist into Friday then ease. 

Note: these size estimations are for the regional swell magnets, so (for example) not every break along the Surf Coast will pick up the nominated size. It's also worth noting that despite the size and strength of the swell energy, it's often the consistency (or lack thereof) that ultimately has the biggest influence on the quality of your session - even if the waves are great when they arrive, it's obviously harder to jag a set when they're extremely infrequent.

Light winds all week will probably hold from the eastern quadrant if anything, though in general it’ll probably be a pattern of morning variable conditions and then afternoon sea breezes. 

Have a great weekend, see you Monday!

Comments

Winx3widenocover's picture
Winx3widenocover's picture
Winx3widenocover commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 9:32am

Similar swell projections to last week but hopefully the winds play in our favour this time round! haha

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 1:21pm

Ahhh perfect timing. If the rumours are true and Dan lifts the 5km travel limit to 20 (or even 10)kms I'm a happy man. Twelve weeks without a surf and I'm frofing for a wave! Book 4 surfs in for me next week and then a week to recover. I'm back baby!

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 2:51pm

The20km was made up crap by one journo. The rule will be lifted in entirety or not at all

How on earth do the police a 20km and in the end people end up breaking it which then leads to undermining of other rules
My tip is we will be free within metro Mel by monday!!!

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 3:00pm

“ How on earth do the police a 20km”

The same way they police 5kms I guess

McGusto's picture
McGusto's picture
McGusto commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 3:04pm

20kms significantly harder to enforce surely?! It would encapsulate a huge geographical area

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 7:02pm

They enforced the 5?

I am the bone

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 3:05pm

My god McGusto I want nothing more in my life right now than for you to be correct.

On policing, 20km will create a lot more movement around the place so I reckon you'd be stiff to get done for it if you weren't doing anything else wrong (speeding, not wearing mask, in a big group etc).

Maybe the 20km rule if it's brought in will be treated by most like the 2hour time limit outside - nobody takes much notice of it.

Tim.antonie's picture
Tim.antonie's picture
Tim.antonie commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 3:12pm

I think they will allow people to go to the closest location to pursue their sport whether it is golf, fishing, surfing etc but metro will not be able to travel to regional and already made this clear
This arrangement was the maximum restriction on Regional in stage 2 and was where we were at in July
There is no proportional reason to justify otherwise as indoors is the issue
If want to influence then send a tweet to Prof Sutton - no downside in doing so!!

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 3:21pm

If the 5km limit is lifted or bumped up in distance, the ring of steel is here to stay for now. That was made clear today by Dictator Dan in the press conference.

Any guesses on when the ring of steel will disappear? I'm thinking November some time.

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 3:58pm

Yeh reckon you're probably right bnkref. He keeps banging on about a normal christmas as possible, so that would have to include regional vic opening up. May god have mercy on the coastal towns over the Christmas break if they are open... think I'll stay in Melbourne haha

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 7:18pm

D bone has no political bone but I assume Danny Boy is out? I wish I could fuck up monumentally and just use the ‘I can’t remember’ card....

Vic Police: ‘You blew .3 and we know you fatally hit a person!’

Me: ‘What? Nah! Can’t remember!’

Vic Police whispering: ‘Damn, he got us on the Danny Andrews defence...’

Me: ‘Oh, I forgot! If that doesn’t clear my name. I was just waiting for a mate!’

I am the bone

Saltyvibes's picture
Saltyvibes's picture
Saltyvibes commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 7:26pm

Danny boy already used that one a few years back, in your neck of the woods no less Bone......

https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/alp-leader-daniel-andrews-def...

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 7:18pm

Will be pretty hypocritical for him to allow a free-for-all on the covid free MP and Yarra ranges whilst maintaining the ring of steel (but I’m bias here). The 20km has been floated for a reason, it’s coming I reckon

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 7:28pm

How many crew here are within 20km of MP, but not 5km?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 16 Oct 2020 at 7:37pm

Basically everybody bayside from Toot to Mornington isn’t within 5km of the back beaches. Like bone said above, ain’t no policing going on anyway

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Saturday, 17 Oct 2020 at 7:46am

20kms? yew! cowards cove here I come

san Guine's picture
san Guine's picture
san Guine commented Saturday, 17 Oct 2020 at 8:02am

Police checking Gunna carpark pretty much everyday... as long as your not hanging out there (and your registered address is on the Peninsula) they don't seem too bothered

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Saturday, 17 Oct 2020 at 12:18pm

Peaky 'n perky this morning, bringing back memories from my youth;)

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 17 Oct 2020 at 12:35pm

Very fun indeed. Swear I could see the more SE lines follow in after the SW ones, so I aimed for the SE bombs

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Saturday, 17 Oct 2020 at 5:22pm

Classic South Channel, a place of tranquility when the trees are swaying like the blow up things in front of car yards. 10 knot SW pfffffft

I am the bone

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol commented Sunday, 18 Oct 2020 at 12:54pm

If you're from Mornington, Somerville or anywhere south of there, you're back in the game.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Sunday, 18 Oct 2020 at 1:04pm

Kind of, don’t get the back beaches or flinders from Mornington. Safety beach south and you get everything

anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen's picture
anthony.olsen commented Sunday, 18 Oct 2020 at 4:00pm

The next step on 1st November says unrestricted travel (including distance) - betting that it will be within metro Melbourne - but I bet they keep the 25km because otherwise the MP will just get flooded.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Sunday, 18 Oct 2020 at 4:12pm

Yeh Dan pretty much said as much in the press conference, 25km likely to stay after the 1st for a while

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Monday, 19 Oct 2020 at 9:57am

Reckon it's all case number dependent now. If we can hold under 5 average until Nov 1, even get some 0 days in there which now seems possible after 2,1,2,4 last 4 days- then I can't see how he'll be able to keep the 25km limit in metro Melb.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Sunday, 18 Oct 2020 at 5:12pm

I recon ‘ excellent outlook for next week’
might be a bit of a stretch.. hope I’m wrong..

brainiac's picture
brainiac's picture
brainiac commented Sunday, 18 Oct 2020 at 8:39pm

looking like shite winds

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 19 Oct 2020 at 7:05am

Shite winds?

Still looks to be light and variable all week. 

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 19 Oct 2020 at 7:11am

I suppose we've all got our own interpretations of excellent. One surfer's pumping Greenmount is another surfer's overcrowded, overhyped Superbank, etc. 

Four days offering two overlapping, significant long period groundswells (first one just reached WA with Tp of 20 seconds) along with concurrent light variable winds is by anyone's yardstick a rare occurence in Vicco waters - both events certainly happen on their own many times throughout the year, but rarely at the same time.

I have no doubt that there'll be quite a few excellent sessions.. though whether they're at your local beach is another matter though.