Great run for the beaches
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 14th September)
Best Days: Friday from mid-morning on the beaches, Saturday, Sunday, Monday
Large surf yesterday and this morning with reinforcing pulses of long-period SW groundswell between 5-6ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft to the east, cleanest in protected spots yesterday ahead of weak sea breezes, clean across all locations this morning.
Winds will shift more N/NW this afternoon ahead of a late S'ly change linked to a trough, so make the most of it.
This week and next (Sep 17 – 25)
In the wake of the trough late this afternoon we'll see onshore winds out of the S-S/SE tomorrow morning (only light to moderate), but then freshening from the S/SE-SE into the afternoon.
The swell will ease further, dropping from 3ft+ or so on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.
Friday looks smaller again with the size easing back to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4ft to the east but a high moving in from the west should swing winds around to the east. At dawn winds look to the E-E/SE'ly, shifting more E/NE through the morning ahead of SE sea breezes.
Moving into the weekend and our good S/SW groundswell and favourable winds are still on track, with a slight upgrade in the expected sized Saturday.
A strengthening polar fetch of elongated W/NW tending W'ly gales will push in and under the country today and tomorrow. Following this another low drifting south-east from the Indian Ocean will strengthen but the fetch will be NW and less favourably aligned for us. There'll still likely be some small swell radiating out from this, but not to the size of Saturday's pulse.
Coming back to later Friday and we may see some new S/SW energy showing across the coast but the bulk is due Saturday with great 3-4ft sets due on the Surf Coast (likely peaking into the afternoon), 4-6ft to the east.
Winds look great and moderate to fresh out of the N/NE, possibly holding all day if not tending more E/NE-E through the afternoon.
Stronger N/NE winds are due Sunday morning, shifting N/NW into the afternoon but possibly holding out of the N east of Melbourne as the S/SW swell starts to ease from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively.
Later in the day the less favourably aligned and smaller reinforcing S/SW groundswell is due, easing Monday from an inconsistent 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 4ft+ to the east. Winds look to be out of the N/NW all day, favouring the Surf Coast and Phillip Island.
As touched on in Monday's update, the longer term outlook isn't great and revolves around mid-latitude storm activity moving in from the west. This looks to take the form of a strong mid-latitude low, though sitting too far north of us to generate any significant swell at this stage, then moving in from the west Tuesday bringing with it low quality westerly energy. Check back here Friday for a clearer idea on next week's developments.