Great outlook for the period
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th September)
Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday on the beaches, Saturday, Sunday
Recap
Slow waves Saturday morning as Friday's inconsistent W/SW groundswell eased back in size but a flukey new pulse of swell from a strong but poorly tracking low filled in through the mid-late afternoon providing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets to the east.
Conditions weren't as favourable on Sunday with a mix of easing S/SW energy and new inconsistent W/SW groundswell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, average to the east and to 4-6ft.
Today we're seeing building SW groundswell energy linked to a great conveyer belt of polar frontal systems moving in from the Heard Island region and under the country. Surf to 3-5ft was seen this morning on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east and we should see the size building further into the afternoon but with onshore winds.
This week and weekend (Sep 15 – 20)
The coming two days are looking excellent for surfing with options right across the state with a larger and stronger pulse of SW groundswell tomorrow, easing slowly Wednesday and with favourable winds.
Today's, tomorrow's and Wednesday's swell have been produced by a drawn out progression of polar fronts, generating various fetches of gale to severe-gale west to west-southwest winds through our south-western swell window.
The strongest of the fronts is now passing across and under Tasmania (on top the active sea state created before it), with the largest pulse of long-period SW groundswell from this source due to fill in tomorrow.
There's no real change to the expected size with surf to 5-6ft due on the Surf Coast magnets, 8ft sets to the east. There's the chance for the odd bigger bomb on those Surf Coast magnets and a light NW breeze will favour protected spots ahead of weak and possibly variable afternoon sea breezes.
Due to the dawn out and longevity of the progression the easing trend through Wednesday will be slow with easing 3-5ft sets on the Surf Coast early, 6ft+ to the east.
An approaching trough will swing winds around to the N'th Wednesday morning (N/NW Surf Coast and possibly tending N/NE through the day to the east), with a late afternoon change which will then spoil Thursday as winds linger from the S-S/SE and strengthen through the day.
The strengthening breeze will be linked to a high moving in from the west, behind the trough, but the high will be pushed off to the east through Friday, swinging winds to the E/NE and then N/NE on Saturday.
Swell wise a low point is expected on Friday, 2ft+ or so on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east but come the weekend a fun S/SW groundswell should fill in.
The source will be a healthy polar front sliding in and under the high, generating a fetch of pre-frontal W/NW tending W'ly gales along the polar shelf.
The swell looks fun in size, building Saturday and reaching 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east along with those great N/NE winds, likely easing Sunday as stronger N/NE winds kick in.
Into next week we may see winds remain favourable as troughy/mid-latitude storms push in from the west with smaller levels of swell, but more on this Wednesday.
Comments
Shackie, when you touched my soul in the candlelight
Shackie, when I lost control in the heat of the night
Shack Shack Shackie, can't get you off my mind
Great song -
https://m.
See you in the tube
That's a mighty clip alexz
Great to see a solid forecast of waves. All helps in ensuring the locals get their fix of waves now, to allow them to sit out a few sessions when the covid dogs are released back into the wild late October.
Dream on..........
(will probably be a steady diet of wonky, S/E wind affected junk by then so you might be in luck)
Dreaming is all I have right now ringmaster
Now that we know what the majority of melb surfers are like, think we will put in more effort to burn anyone from melbs. Expecially considering you spread the virus to geelong and colac. Ps you're gonna have a fun time at the rock and the pop
Sorry, I forgot that every single Melbourne surfer spread the virus everywhere.
Will be fun to watch the crowds at the rock and the pop on a nice 2-4ft day. Personally don't bother with either.
All their wives and kids who were on the beach in April probably helped to spread it. Everyone knows that the flu comes from densely populated city's like china and melbourne. No one in Torquay has been getting sick because we are staying away from you
(China is a country not a city)
NWS, fkn grow up
Most days I drive down the Pen to work and look at the thousands and thousands of cars heading north for work.
Bunch of flogs on here. Small minded nonsense.
The only people I know that drive to Melbourne for work are people who come from Melbourne and have a holiday home or people who have moved down here from Melbourne and have no connections on the peninsula and have to keep their Melbourne job.
Or locals who have done work for people from Melbourne on their holiday homes, and the people from Melbourne realise how much better peninsula locals are at doing everything (including surfing) compared to Melbourne people so they are happy to pay extra for those locals to travel to Melbourne to do work or them there.
Id rather be a small minded flog, than a tossa from Melbourne, who has to drive to the peninsula for work.
They’re almost like normal people.. except they live in Melbourne..
dropping in just encourages more dropping in ya goose......
the Guys a troll shouldn’t give him oxygen
Nah normal people don't surf in packs and spread the virus. Start dropping in and we will start treating you like the adelaide blowins. The lines are being drawn
NWS
I feel sorry for you & i'm glad you are able to get some waves of late.
Given by how you behave on here, it's clear you don't have much else going for you - so good on you buddy.
It's the local 40-50 year olds that are gonna cop it the most with more crowd now, no way are they gonna be fit enough to get waves with 20 ppl on every peak. You can already see them struggling. I thrive on crowds like that at my local because I'm young and fit.
This is how foam arms races start, like I'm hearing about in Sydney... the older guys find some extra foam to equalise the takeoffs, then the young guys start going into 6'9 x 21" x 3 1/4", then there goes the neighbourhood...
You might be young and fit but I'm old (er) and fit
.......and a dead set cunt.
I'm with you ringy, bring it!
Plenty of cunts around here mate. I hope to see you down at winki tomorrow should be 6 foot hope your fit old man
6ft Winki is a walk in the park NWS.
Paddle out is easy and usually dry hair if you time sets.
Take off is as easy as it gets.
Copping a set on the head is a gentle roll around only if you dive deep enough.
it's a wave for old c#nts and young hero's who think they charge!
Haha we will see with the higher tides and longer period tomorrow. If your right I might end up on a beachie down a bit further.
I give up city people just don't get it. You really are a different breed
That’s some “a” grade trolling right there nws.
I wouldn't spam the forums with anything else..
NWS.....another example of the “me” generation.
Far out, I'm always to late to the party to catch NWS's barely coherent ramblings and weird conclusions.
Anyway, can't wait to get down the coast for a wave, pretend I'm a local, and just burn everyone.
NWS, "Now that we know what the majority of melb surfers are like, think we will put in more effort to burn anyone from melbs." and then you say you are young and fit and thrive on crowds.
I know your type, Nothing more than a fucking inside Johnny pest who thinks that paddling past older locals, who have put in decades in the line up, gives him the right to the next set wave.
There's Melbourne crew who never do that, and they get a shit load more respect in the line up than some fucking knob who thinks he has extra rights in the lineup because mummy and daddy have a house in Torquay.
Fuck that. I'll be dishing off waves to some of the Melbourne regulars who have done the right thing and stayed away.
Oh and paddle inside me after I've been waiting for ages and take off, you'll be seeing the back of my head. Time spent in the water, and doing it with respect earns respect. Being some entitled twat gets you nowhere.
Yea I've been watching all u cunts cry for years whenever the more grown up bloke now burns you because that's the way you guys from Torquay have always surfed, you taught the younger generation well. Will tell the kids to burn all the locals too and the cycle continues like this forever. Burn city haha. I usually let the first wave go if I sneak past people in the line up so they get the next wave in line. This is actually a old cunt human issue happens in every town. ive split 2 back heads open with the nose of my board over the years just like my daddy told me to
VL having the back of Melb crew??!?! I can die a happy man ...
Just the regular Melbourne crew who spend plenty of time in the line up and don't drop in, snake, etc.
Or pretty much anyone from anywhere who spends plenty of time in the line up and doesn't drop in, snake, etc.
You certainly are on the angry pills NWS perhaps some self reflection, yoga and meditation may help keep the veins in your neck from protruding as much. I thought you might have been enjoying the COVID 19 break from the crowds but it seems to have made you angrier. There are happy pills that can help if you seek out a psychiatrist.
I don't do drugs I guess I've just always enjoyed burning you lot. Bringing out the hate in these forums is good fun but at the end of the day talks cheap. I Will continue to keep doing what I'm doing in and out of the water
Doesn’t do drugs but smokes bat in the dunes.
Crikey
yea keep doing what you're doing crew. I've had a few good days at the secrete spot down south that you dumb fk melb crew exposed on swellnets wave of the day months ago. keep the info flowing through swellnet so i can continue to surf the best waves in the world... you guys are so sad for giving away spots like that
.
Jeebus.
What a bunch of flogs.
Talk about the weather and waves and jerk off about covid and localism bullshit somewhere else.
Wankers
Although I appreciate even being able to surf atm.. If it’s any consolation you melb crew didn’t miss much.
Fat, bumpy, crumbly sectioney.. def not a 7/10.
I agree The ratings have been over frothing for a while for Torquay in my humble opinion
Pretty underwhelming. Only thing it had going for it was size. I waited till the tide dropped a bit and paid the price in the form of a nagging onshore just enough to make it a bumpy, crumbling, duckdiving pile of shit paddleathon.
Ah well....there's always tomorrow or Thursday or Friday.....
Well, compared to the recent run of terrible surf, surely a 7/10 suffices. It's all relative..
Craig, this is your area.. can you explain why this swell was so shit?
Or point me to a link that explains this type of swell. Wld be much appreciated.
Came here to say the same thing and was rated at 8/10 first thing too, bit off for mine.
sounds like someones confused localism with just arsehole...ism but its entertaining nonetheless
Seems the spirit of the old wannasurf comment sections has been kept alive and well within the vicco forecast notes...
How classic was Wannasurf. Loved the photo section of waves. So off the mark on some of them
And the rating system...
The worst spot in my area was labelled a "regional classic", and had photos from a completely different coast (white sand beach in a yellow sand area). Not to mention the two groups of 12 year old kids threatening to beat each other up for not being real locals in the comments.
Life will sort things out..
Life is better when you surf..
Word!
NorthWestSouth has been sin-binned for a week.
Just when I was starting to have some fun with him. Fair call.
I reckon its about time you set up a sub-forum where you can send all the trolls (most of which is quite amateurish). The BigFooty forums has a sub called Bay13 for those who want to let off some steam or carry on a bit of banter. It makes for an entertaining read and keeps all the floggish posting in one place. I can understand though why you don't want to waste too much time moderating the comments.
Good idea.
We'll call it SUPs and Foils. That should be embarrasing enough to yank 'em back into a normal state of mind.
Here here
Point taken and agree. I'll try to keep my juvenile ripostes to myself in the future. Apologies if I've offended anyone.
I want to know who he is!
What the hell is NWS going to do with himself??
.
Down to only four active Covid 19 cases on the MP as at 14 Sept.
https://covidlive.com.au/vic/mornington-peninsula
Fewer than Geelong which has 8 yet Andrews refuses to review restrictions for the Mornington Peninsula Shire.
Contact your local MP and request the 5km travel limit for residents of MPS be removed immediately.
I reckon the problem is that you share a border with Casey.
Yep Casey is a big concern. Could very easily flare up if they don't get the support they need.
Half the peninsula is a satellite suburb of Melbourne period.
Yep it's tough on the MP Salty. Bugger all cases and we are lumped in with Metro Melb. Funny when I pay my courier account I am regional Vic though. I'm about 4kms outside the Gunna bubble and about 8kms outside the Flinders bubble. Haven't surfed for about 10 weeks. A lot of people worse off though, at least I get to see the water every day. Stay strong folks!
Same here SM 1970, no surf for about 10 weeks, and am not so quietly going mad. Not so much because of the lack of surfing, but the simple fact that I can't get out or even take the wife out for a drive and a change of scenery ( she can't walk far unfortunately ).
Cops all over the place. I've seen them cruising past people slowly checking them out. Neighbor said a mate of his was fined because he didn't wear a mask when he put his rubbish bins on the kerb for collection. Sick of being treated like a child.
The world has gone mad.
Re: rubbish bin fine, I can't believe that could be true. I mean yes they have gone mad with the policing of it, but surely not fined for the brief moment it takes you to put the bins out.
Haven't surfed since in five months.
Longest spell since 1983.
Trying my best but i'm going bonkers.
Even 1.5km outside the bay wave bubble.
I haven't surfed the bay in well over 20 years but I would if I could now.
Hopefully swimming pools will open soon and I can at least start turning the shoulders over.
It's slow but we are getting there peoples.
Just go for a surf style master.
I've mostly not gone being in Bonbeach but I know 100% that most regulars at my winter spot are more than 5kms away and still surfing it, local Constabulary included.
I'll have a quick one tomorrow before working 5 mins away.
Enjoy mate! Get 10 for me.
Congrats to regional vicco's moving out of some of their restrictions. Enjoy the extra taste of freedom, hopefull not too far away for the rest of us.
Fucking ridiculous to hear Dan Andrew's say today though that mandatory mask use outdoors will still be policed in regional VIC despite the incredibly low, often zero, number of cases. Does he really expect everyone to wear masks at the beaches over summer?
From the ABC live press conference blog:
What about the Mornington Peninsula?
Is the Mornington Peninsula included in the regional Victoria opening?
-MP
No, the Mornington Peninsula will not be included in regional Victoria.
Mr Andrews said the border definitions are not changing.
The Mornington Peninsula will not be classified as regional Victoria.
However, Mr Andrews did say he would speak more about the Mornington Peninsula tomorrow.
Fingers crossed things are eased a little for us but could be just an announcement on the extra policing for school hols (Chris Brayne MP has also said this)
Hi Geek,
heard that too, but I suspect it's more to do with increased police to stop Melbourne residents going to their holiday home.
The ALP have lost me forever.
I have heard there will be roadblocks to stop movement from melb to peninsula over hols
Day tripper movements
Sounds like it. Fingers crossed it is accompanied with dropping the 5km rule
You can relax the 5km rule when you stop the 25k plus people back and forthing to Melbourne for work!
That's the facts.
Peninsula is a bloody big shire encompassing suburbs that are pretty much Melbourne
So true The Plowking. South Frankston is pretty much the capital of the Mornington Peninsula Shire.
Yep I had said this already, all along the foreshore from the city to Frankston, then continues through Mount Eliza-Mt Martha-Safety Beach etc onto Rosebud and the rest. It's all connected.
But with workers going to and from it's all irrelevant anyway. You can keep petitioning your local MP, but your energy is likely wasted. Sorry Melb locals*
*Apologies, MP locals.
It's such a nice drive along the coast when you cruise that one (Frankston to MP). I did find beachy banks there with tiny waves in one place.
Haha. Not quite.
But...Mt Eliza, mt Martha, Somerville Hastings...etc etc
Are these places included in the Nepean crews 'free the ninch' agenda?
Well I’m not sure about Hastings best they stay were they are!
There were Police at the Dromana freeway this morning stopping everyone. Then they usually move to the McCrae exit after that. Heading down the bay for a swim now.
Regions are to open up as of tomorrow night, will be watched and results to template how to get Melbourne out of this. So hopefully all good in the regions over the next couple of weeks and it all works well.
Cops at Bells today.
Yeah......they were surfing like everyone else.
If they were, it was pretty cunning to leave the flashing lights on, at the path to the waves.
Started getting busy yesterday afternoon.
Lots of unfamiliar faces round the shops.
Not sure if the police are doing that much at the moment.
Last time there were waves it was packed at places that would normally not be that busy. All were locals either just with in or just out of their 5 kms. The 5km limit hasn't helped with crowds here it has just forced everyone to surf close by.
A lot of the crew surfing places they would normally not surf because they are what you would call car park surfers.
Apparently Gunna has been pumping with next to no one out, except for one indian bread man. Think he's getting lonely doing his 20m drawn out cut backs.
Has anyone been to cowards cove in the last few days, wondering if it's been crowded.
Fuk I loved that song and vid alexz.
Sweat and surf and spaff make life so happy!
How's this still image from the Porstea cam!
Somewhere will be cooking.
Yup
This swell has kicked a bit more ass than expected? Seems it’s strongest now.
Being such a drawn out and prolonged period of activity, the longevity and varying pulses since Monday through today are hard to nail down precisely. It'd be due to this.
I'm knackered......