Great outlook for the period
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 14th September)
Best Days: Tuesday, Wednesday, Friday on the beaches, Saturday, Sunday
Slow waves Saturday morning as Friday's inconsistent W/SW groundswell eased back in size but a flukey new pulse of swell from a strong but poorly tracking low filled in through the mid-late afternoon providing 3ft sets on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft sets to the east.
Conditions weren't as favourable on Sunday with a mix of easing S/SW energy and new inconsistent W/SW groundswell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, average to the east and to 4-6ft.
Today we're seeing building SW groundswell energy linked to a great conveyer belt of polar frontal systems moving in from the Heard Island region and under the country. Surf to 3-5ft was seen this morning on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east and we should see the size building further into the afternoon but with onshore winds.
This week and weekend (Sep 15 – 20)
The coming two days are looking excellent for surfing with options right across the state with a larger and stronger pulse of SW groundswell tomorrow, easing slowly Wednesday and with favourable winds.
Today's, tomorrow's and Wednesday's swell have been produced by a drawn out progression of polar fronts, generating various fetches of gale to severe-gale west to west-southwest winds through our south-western swell window.
The strongest of the fronts is now passing across and under Tasmania (on top the active sea state created before it), with the largest pulse of long-period SW groundswell from this source due to fill in tomorrow.
There's no real change to the expected size with surf to 5-6ft due on the Surf Coast magnets, 8ft sets to the east. There's the chance for the odd bigger bomb on those Surf Coast magnets and a light NW breeze will favour protected spots ahead of weak and possibly variable afternoon sea breezes.
Due to the dawn out and longevity of the progression the easing trend through Wednesday will be slow with easing 3-5ft sets on the Surf Coast early, 6ft+ to the east.
An approaching trough will swing winds around to the N'th Wednesday morning (N/NW Surf Coast and possibly tending N/NE through the day to the east), with a late afternoon change which will then spoil Thursday as winds linger from the S-S/SE and strengthen through the day.
The strengthening breeze will be linked to a high moving in from the west, behind the trough, but the high will be pushed off to the east through Friday, swinging winds to the E/NE and then N/NE on Saturday.
Swell wise a low point is expected on Friday, 2ft+ or so on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east but come the weekend a fun S/SW groundswell should fill in.
The source will be a healthy polar front sliding in and under the high, generating a fetch of pre-frontal W/NW tending W'ly gales along the polar shelf.
The swell looks fun in size, building Saturday and reaching 3ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east along with those great N/NE winds, likely easing Sunday as stronger N/NE winds kick in.
Into next week we may see winds remain favourable as troughy/mid-latitude storms push in from the west with smaller levels of swell, but more on this Wednesday.