Craig

Strong onshore winds, then cleaning up while bottoming out

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 7th August)

Best Days: Keen surfers Monday, exposed beaches Tuesday

Recap

Easing size with persisting onshore winds across all locations yesterday, while today winds have swung to the E/SE with a small mix of swells this morning to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east.

A new SW groundswell due this afternoon has hit Cape Sorell and we should see it reaching 4-5ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets later this afternoon, 6ft to possibly 8ft along with stronger E/SE winds and a building SE windswell.

This weekend and next week (Aug 8 - 14)

Have a look at the current Sat View provided by the Bureau of Meteorology and press play. You'll see a broad and moisture laden inland low drifting south-east across New South Wales.

A beauty

This is squeezing a strong high to our south-west, and will continue to do so through the weekend as the low moves off the southern NSW coast and stalls.

This will direct fresh to strong E/SE-SE winds through Bass Strait creating poor conditions while also kicking up moderate sized amounts of SE windswell for the Surf Coast, smaller to the east.

This afternoon's increase in SW groundswell is due to ease tomorrow with strong E/SE-SE winds, with Sunday seeing a new building SW groundswell into the afternoon from W/NW gales moving through our swell window the last couple of days on the polar shelf.

Size wise the Surf Coast is likely to build back to 3-4ft later Sunday, though inconsistent and 6ft on the sets to the east but with strong SE winds. The SE windswell will be more noticeable in the water.

The swell is then due to ease Monday from a smaller size with a weaker though still moderate E/SE tending SE breeze.

Tuesday is still the day to see winds swing back offshore out of the N/NE, fresh to strong as another broad and significant mid-latitude low starts moving in from Western Australia. Unfortunately there won't be much size or power left with an easing S/SW swell from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast, 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Come Wednesday fresh N/NE tending N/NW winds are due but with no new swell and small to tiny surf.

Unfortunately the broad and all encompassing mid-latitude low slowly moving in from the west next week will block our swell windows, while at the same time weakening and not generating any swell from itself. Instead it's forecast to restrengthen south-west of us mid-late next week, continuing to block our swell window.

This will lead to a run of clean conditions with northerly breezes but no decent swell, even for the Mornington Peninsula.

Longer term this unfavourable winter pattern looks to continue with no significant swell sources for the coming fortnight. More on this in next week's updates. Have a good weekend as best you can.

Comments

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 10:03am

Great forecast to keep the people from surfing on the Mornington Peninsula. Six weeks of this works for me. Stay safe everyone.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 10:14am

Anyone still wanna complain about how 'bad' July was now?

A week into August and it's howling Easterlies for days on end. Fuck me......

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Saturday, 8 Aug 2020 at 10:01pm

Yep, I'm sticking with the line that it was ok fun little waves but a shite July by any comparison to normal - the only 4ft plus wave that came through that month broke right in front of me and almost gave me a double hold-down to rub it in. Looks like it's gonna be the same for August at this rate. On the bright side, there's a lot of work getting done, so it better get sorted for Sept....

FreddyWaters's picture
FreddyWaters's picture
FreddyWaters commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 10:45am

I’m slipping into a nightmare within a nightmare

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 12:00pm

I know this sort of comment is thrown around a bit, but is this genuinely the worst year for surf in living memory in Vic (Surf Coast, not MP)? Whilst summer is usually average this summer was simply shithouse with barely any days with half decent surf and long runs of easterlies, autumn was good fun without being epic, then winter has been awful and looks to continue.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 12:08pm

Yep, and here's the reasoning.. https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2020/08/05/not-so-dry-july

With that anomaly as it is, fronts even approaching WA and SA have all slipped south-east and towards the polar shelf. Not good for generating surf.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 12:10pm

Worst year in living memory for Surf Coast?

Just for some context - Craig's analysis wrap in early May (three months ago to the day) said this:

"With such a large low pressure anomaly, the resultant wind anomalies were westerly through the Bight and across Victoria, bringing plenty of westerly swell, though also with plenty of wind. The main beneficiaries from this pattern were South Australia and Victoria.... the Surf Coast in Victoria received a steady flow of westerly swells with favourable conditions under zonal westerly breezes. While not especially large, there's been plenty of fun days to pick and choose from."

https://www.swellnet.com/news/swellnet-analysis/2020/05/07/autumnal-april

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 12:20pm

Yeh like I said, autumn was fun, but it hasn't followed through to winter, and before autumn got fun I recall a longer than usual period of real average conditions.

The current forey takes us through to mid-late August, then Spring is on our doorstep. Ah well what do I care, not like I'm allowed to leave my house anyway

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 12:37pm

Is it Just a a coincidence that the east coast has had an epic autumn winter? Being an ex east coast surfer I’ve been suffering some major FOMO

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 1:28pm

No, often when the East Coast pumps it's meh across Vic and SA.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 2:21pm

Ninja means east coast of VIC yes??

Ninja's picture
Ninja's picture
Ninja commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 4:58pm

East coast of NSW it’s been tough watching swell after swell up there while locked Down in VIc

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 4:14pm

So has anyone heard of fines being handed out or warnings for surfing yet in stage 4 lockdown areas?
maybe its too early into the lockdown for this question... just curious

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 4:47pm

Too early, only day 1 was surfable on the MP (in WP). Check again after Tuesday next week. Outside of MP it’s stage 3 so you can surf your closest beach

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Sunday, 9 Aug 2020 at 6:52am

Recon it would be pretty stiff to cop a fine if you were with in the 5 km radius of your home and you rode a bike or walked and only 2 of you exercising in the surf.
Think if you were outside your 5 kms and drove to a car park, like Gunna, Portsea, or Rye with more than 2 of you surfing the same spot you might get fined.
Good looking deposit on the wealthy side of the intruder, even sausage and mash potatoes looks good. So does hot beef rolls.
The bogan side of the space ship is looking like it should at last. Plenty of space left off the rock on the right for the left and right, you know that the covid kook dogs get confused between the Tortious and the Hare.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Sunday, 9 Aug 2020 at 7:01am

You been playing around in the Captain of the USS Enterprise's trees

I am the bone

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Sunday, 9 Aug 2020 at 7:22am

Ha,
Me and the younglings nearly stood on a baby tiger in captains trees the other day, these easterlies and not much rain are doing all sorts of strange things in Spocks domain.

Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach's picture
Oceanbeach commented Sunday, 9 Aug 2020 at 8:25am

Your aging well finbob! Like a fine wine sipped by the nutrient vampire

Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror's picture
Finnbob the terror commented Sunday, 9 Aug 2020 at 8:36am

classic
The 13 year old plug plug looks like DD with age.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 4:29pm

Cops are definitely active down on the Surf Coast and 13th checking regos and licences. Not that they need to worry about surfers for the last, or the next, few days.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 6:14pm

I've just managed to finally get a little surf fitness back and BAM! Shitful, for as far as the eye can see. Fuck you 2020, you really are a shithouse year for sooo many, piss-off already.

All the best to the people of Beirut, that was/ is some seriously crazy shit going down over there :(

Sheep go to heaven's picture
Sheep go to heaven's picture
Sheep go to heaven commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 7:32pm

A week of easterlies in August , and weeks of west/souwest winds last summer . Covid is messing with the climate as well .....

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 7:36pm

Goat go to hell........Cake?

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Friday, 7 Aug 2020 at 8:30pm

Aye, it’s been a pretty fucked up year. Happy to echo Stylemaster70, stay safe and let’s beat this shit.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 8 Aug 2020 at 11:08am

“Dawn Report: How keen are you?”

That’s the first sentence in today’s report.
Got to admit I find it odd that the question would even be asked.

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Sunday, 9 Aug 2020 at 8:11am

Today’s repot” Only the very southern end of the open beaches is remotely workable”. For those that read this and don’t know, you can’t surf on the Peninsula ATM. Stay safe everyone, pumping waves on the other side of this mess.. We will get through this.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........