Strong onshore winds, then cleaning up while bottoming out
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 7th August)
Best Days: Keen surfers Monday, exposed beaches Tuesday
Easing size with persisting onshore winds across all locations yesterday, while today winds have swung to the E/SE with a small mix of swells this morning to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east.
A new SW groundswell due this afternoon has hit Cape Sorell and we should see it reaching 4-5ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets later this afternoon, 6ft to possibly 8ft along with stronger E/SE winds and a building SE windswell.
This weekend and next week (Aug 8 - 14)
Have a look at the current Sat View provided by the Bureau of Meteorology and press play. You'll see a broad and moisture laden inland low drifting south-east across New South Wales.
This is squeezing a strong high to our south-west, and will continue to do so through the weekend as the low moves off the southern NSW coast and stalls.
This will direct fresh to strong E/SE-SE winds through Bass Strait creating poor conditions while also kicking up moderate sized amounts of SE windswell for the Surf Coast, smaller to the east.
This afternoon's increase in SW groundswell is due to ease tomorrow with strong E/SE-SE winds, with Sunday seeing a new building SW groundswell into the afternoon from W/NW gales moving through our swell window the last couple of days on the polar shelf.
Size wise the Surf Coast is likely to build back to 3-4ft later Sunday, though inconsistent and 6ft on the sets to the east but with strong SE winds. The SE windswell will be more noticeable in the water.
The swell is then due to ease Monday from a smaller size with a weaker though still moderate E/SE tending SE breeze.
Tuesday is still the day to see winds swing back offshore out of the N/NE, fresh to strong as another broad and significant mid-latitude low starts moving in from Western Australia. Unfortunately there won't be much size or power left with an easing S/SW swell from 2ft+ on the Surf Coast, 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Come Wednesday fresh N/NE tending N/NW winds are due but with no new swell and small to tiny surf.
Unfortunately the broad and all encompassing mid-latitude low slowly moving in from the west next week will block our swell windows, while at the same time weakening and not generating any swell from itself. Instead it's forecast to restrengthen south-west of us mid-late next week, continuing to block our swell window.
This will lead to a run of clean conditions with northerly breezes but no decent swell, even for the Mornington Peninsula.
Longer term this unfavourable winter pattern looks to continue with no significant swell sources for the coming fortnight. More on this in next week's updates. Have a good weekend as best you can.