Craig

Small, fun beachy options from Friday

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd July)

Best Days: Friday through Sunday on the beaches

Recap

Not overly powerful but fun and clean waves to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, easing a little into the afternoon as winds tended variable. To the east conditions were bumpy though OK for the desperate.

This morning we've got similar conditions but less swell. The afternoon will become bumpy across all locations with a moderate to fresh SW breeze.

This week and weekend (Jul 23 - 26)

As talked about on Monday, the rest of the week and weekend aren't too special swell wise, but we'll see winds improving for the beaches and remaining so Saturday/Sunday which is a plus with such small swell.

Our current energy will ease further into tomorrow morning and I can't see there being much over an infrequent 2ft on the sets on the Surf Coast. The Mornington Peninsula looks to offer infrequent 3ft sets, but into the afternoon a new long-range and very inconsistent W/SW groundswell may offer the odd bigger one.

Winds will be favourable for the Surf Coast and W/NW tending NW, then variable into the afternoon. Later in the day the beaches to the east may improve for the keen.

Friday looks the pick of the beaches though with the inconsistent background energy coming in at 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to possibly 4ft to the east, easing slowly through the day. Local offshore winds are expected (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE-N to the east), freshening a little and holding out of the N/NE through the afternoon.

Looking at the weekend and light N-N/NE winds will persist Saturday morning, variable out of the NE into the afternoon.

The surf will remain small, though a tight low that's formed south-southwest of WA today is generating a slim fetch of W/SW gales in our swell window. Any swell from this system is due Saturday morning with inconsistent 2ft+ sets continuing on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula (outside chance rare bigger one), smaller Sunday and to 1-1.5ft and 3ft respectively on the sets.

Conditions will remain favourable with local morning offshores, variable NE into the afternoon.

Next week onwards (Jul 27 onwards)

As we move into next week we'll see a strong node of the Long Wave Trough that's situated across Western Australia moving in slowly from the west.

This will bring a progression of strong frontal systems projecting up and towards WA closer to us, but initially they'll be on a downward, south-east projection which is unfavourable for swell production.

In saying this a few strengthening storms to our south-west should produce small to moderate sized pulses of SW groundswell, mixed in with some inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell energy.

Size wise we're not looking at anything above 3ft on the Surf Coast as of yet, and 5-6ft to the east and winds will go onshore Monday with a trough, poor Tuesday but then revert back to the N-NW from Wednesday.

More on this and the expected swells Friday.

Comments

PLStocks's picture
PLStocks's picture
PLStocks commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 9:56am

rinse, repeat, ho hum :(

Oska's picture
Oska's picture
Oska commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 10:21am

Is there official word wether we are allowed to travel from Melbourne to surf legaly?

MG

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 10:44am

I heard just before on the news, An idiot (very refined wording) attempted to travel from Strathmore to the surf coast for a wave and was fined.
Not sure about travel to MP, DHHS rules still read that it is allowed???

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 10:56am

Maybe, maybe not. You will get stopped at some point though. Been plenty of checkpoints in different places around here and patrol cars driving around no doubt scanning for city number plates.

Tristosterone's picture
Tristosterone's picture
Tristosterone commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 11:13am

paging Viclocal...

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 11:26am

"A woman travelling from Melbourne's north-western suburbs to the Surf Coast to go surfing was one of dozens of people fined for breaching coronavirus restrictions on Tuesday."

Surfers seem particularly dumb or selfish or both.

Guzmund's picture
Guzmund's picture
Guzmund commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 8:27pm

Sprout. She is probably both....dumb and selfish. No sympathy from me.

brainiac's picture
brainiac's picture
brainiac commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 11:33am

Are you fishing here oska? Or are you as ignorant and stupid as the surfers who have been fined. The answer is no you can’t travel. You will get fined. I saw 2 seperate patrol cars checking plates in car parks yesterday.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 12:18pm

Its official that the metro area and Mitchell Shire are in lockdown, and it's simple that you have stay local.

rogerdodger's picture
rogerdodger's picture
rogerdodger commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 10:58am

I sense another sermon from Vic Local coming on...

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 11:16am


I spotted a few little runners from the worksite yesterday, today's swell is much weaker unfortunately.

cmcwha's picture
cmcwha's picture
cmcwha commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 4:37pm

How's the clubhouse coming along?

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 5:55pm

Great but some behind the scenes bs going on as per usual, it'll be awesome when complete though.

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 3:04pm

Epic weekend forecast for the peninsula! Anyone need a lift from Casey to Gunnamatta? I've got 3 spare seats

UTFS

festa's picture
festa's picture
festa commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 3:47pm

Yes you are allowed to go for a surf to the MP but not the Surf Coast.
And yes us surfers are a selfish bunch, it's the best way to get your stoke.

Tristosterone's picture
Tristosterone's picture
Tristosterone commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 5:31pm

Yeah, festa, I don't think you can say that. The guidelines are a bit vague as to whether you can travel a distance within the lock down area to surf.

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 4:46pm

Another 2 good surf days to go this week with perfect weather, not bad considering the shit forecast. Geez it's great living by the coast

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 4:50pm

you should not travel from your district to exercise this includes surf ,so get the message all u flogs the ninch is not open slather for every dick to go for a surf ,if you dont live here dont come here with your dirty virus germs.

vicco11's picture
vicco11's picture
vicco11 commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 5:56pm

Hey Chaz, is there any link or direct quote that says someone from Melbourne can't travel to the peninsula for a surf (obviously not the surf coast, PI or anywhere else.)? Are you saying someone from Mornington is allowed to travel 30 mins to Gunna but it's not okay for someone to drive 1 hour from Moorabbin for a paddle?

So it's okay to travel for a round of golf for exercise but surfing is not?
“There is not a golf course in every suburb so you cannot play golf in every suburb to the if you are a member of the club it is not unreasonable to travel to the club,” Dan Andrews said.

Sometimes it comes across as people just not wanting to share the waves even if the risk posed from someone driving from Melbourne for a few waves is slim to none. This personally doesn't affect me but I'm curious as the message is open to interpretation and I do feel for people in Melbourne that do the right thing but get told they are not welcome. For the selfish pricks that do the wrong thing well they can f*ck right off.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 6:10pm

Today’s press conference 100% confirms people from Melbourne aren’t doing the right thing so fuck them, they are not welcome! Stick to your LGA, simple. We are full to the brim with high risk nursing homes and retirees.

Closest breaking wave to Melb isn’t gunna anyway. It would be pt leo so enjoy your 1fters on Saturday crew. And don’t forget if the rules are open to interpretation by us they are also open to the cops.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 6:53pm

I thought when I looked up Metro Melbourne, that MP is part of Metro Melbourne, so when they talk about people from MELBOURNE, MP is in that grouping???

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 7:10pm

Technically yes it is but most didn’t realise it. Big push by small business and the shire now to have that changed but I think the gov has other things to worry about

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 6:53pm

pretty sure the rules rely on people using there common sense.The peninsula has experienced an expolsion of people coming to surf who dont usually surf there so that vicco11 goes against what the guidelines stipulate .The whole point of a lockdown is to eradicate unnessary travel and social mixing .If everyone is going to peninsula to surf who would normally go west or PI that is defeating the purpose ,so once again IF YOU DONT LIVE CLOSE BY DONT F---EN COME because all its going to do is spread the virus and prolong the lockdown .

denchy's picture
denchy's picture
denchy commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 6:55pm

Oska
Its all good, come on down.
Strap your board on top, they wave you through

Sprout's picture
Sprout's picture
Sprout commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 6:56pm

Sounds like morons need the government to come out and say something like, no further than 10 minutes in a car, because people are seriously retarded.

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 6:58pm

and as for feeling sorry for people ,WHY they dont live here the peninsula needs to step up with some localism that is experienced everywhere else in the world we are to easy and forgiving .There is a crew of people who live and surf these waves in any condition and surely they have some rights when the stars align and it pumps instead we have to deal with allthese blow ins ruining things for the dedicated.Yep i am old and grumpy and really over it

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 8:45pm

Maybe old and grumpy...but also scared?

You do realise you live on the MP. It's connected by suburbs to the city. It falls within the city zones. You are part of the city and hence have to deal with all the shit going on in the city. Don't like it? Move to Gnaraloo.

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 6:26am

stok.
scared no
over blow ins yes
when you get a delivery ninch not part of melb metro,is only part of now because the rich want access to there holiday houses

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 10:08am

Glad you're not scared! I would be!

Point still stands though. You're essentially part of Melb. If you want to get technical...then yes maybe you can draw a line somewhere saying city ends here, regional ends here (Frankston?). Either way, you're the closest stretch of ocean to a city of 5M people. Blow ins, unfortunately as is the case with so many of surfing areas in Aus, will be part and parcel of living and surfing there.

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 11:21am

"surely they have some rights" entitled much?
You never surf anywhere but the MP?
If you do you are a blow in too.

Surfed regularly since the early 1980s but as I live in Melbs all that time I am merely a blow in.
By your twisted reckoning I should not surf anywhere but Port Phillip bay waves.
Can't even claim the tub as I live closer to Pt Leo than Tulla.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Wednesday, 22 Jul 2020 at 9:57pm

Human v human.. pretty sad really!

Justin_Sider's picture
Justin_Sider's picture
Justin_Sider commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 12:17am

It's legal and Mornington is part of Melbourne Metro. how about your mates from the ninch coming back from Aspen through Tullamarine then back to the city to spread the love. Unless you walk to the beach you should just suck it it up and keep your distance. You sound like a bunch of twats.

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 6:23am

yo dude those aspen crew were from melbourne holiday house in portsea ,i rest my case

Justin_Sider's picture
Justin_Sider's picture
Justin_Sider commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 7:52am

They were from the ninch who travelled to Melb for a party. If you have drive to the beach you're just the same as everyone in metro Melb. Let's just create divide and hate because I'm selfish.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 9:00am
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 10:37am

That’s not right Justin. I worked at their HOLIDAY house in Portsea once they got back from the trip. Selfish cnts

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 10:49am

100% trolling

I am the bone

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 6:57pm

vindication

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 7:36am

'Yo dude'

WTF?

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 10:04am

Yes...this is the caliber of discussion we've stooped to.

Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird's picture
Tubbabird commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 12:01pm

Still got 1 spot in the car for Saturday morning, Melbourne to Gunnamatta! Will be doing tour of all the best MP cafes on the way back home. You will need to chip in for petrol money btw

UTFS

Mattc00's picture
Mattc00's picture
Mattc00 commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 3:54pm

*photo of Michael Jackson eating popcorn*

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 4:01pm

Not bad this afternoon with a bit more size and light winds..

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 6:13pm

nada at Porto. would of been soemthing some where. a few chunkier sets than those screen grabs

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 8:03pm

Not bad, good size

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Jul 2020 at 8:41am

Ha!

festa's picture
festa's picture
festa commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 4:06pm

last time i looked we were all Australians,
what the fuck is wrong with people?

Chaz's picture
Chaz's picture
Chaz commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 6:59pm

yep we all Australians ,do the right thing exercise and stay close to home stop the spread of covid

Jasetheace's picture
Jasetheace's picture
Jasetheace commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 8:26pm

Reading all these comments is just upsetting and ridiculous, strip away all the bullsh*t reasons you don't want people on the MP. The honest truth is all you care about is uncrowded line ups....the rest is just an excuse.

I travell for work, my board lives in my car. And I will surf if im working in the area, simple!..

We all should be fighting for and not against each other lads come on.

Jason

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 8:57pm

There are just too many kooks around, someone has to draw the line. No localism needed now. The government and police have draw the line for us

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 9:01pm

Meh.... I'm tired of all this BS fellas, back and forth, back and forth.......SIGH!.

Surf if you're lucky enough to still be able to surf, do something else if you can't....and chill the fuck out!

At least we're all not dead.......yet.

Crazy virus, fuck off, we're all loosing out shit around here and the whole world is a total fucking mess, damage control is an understatement and it's set too continue into the unforseasonable future.

Walk ya dog....have a wank...ride a skateboard like you use too and get barrelled by the bushes....whatever.

Just stop attacking each other for fucks sake.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 9:05pm

But....if the attacking stopped then what would the Vic Forecast notes become!? A place to discuss forecasts?

Where would Victorian surfers go to whinge and argue about crowds, blow ins, coastal development, Swellnet giving too much away, and now more recently, Covid!!!?

denchy's picture
denchy's picture
denchy commented Thursday, 23 Jul 2020 at 9:41pm

Well said G
Get a surf when and where and if you can.
Its a fucked winter. Its a fucked year. Roll on.....

stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970's picture
stylemaster1970 commented Friday, 24 Jul 2020 at 8:21am

my local is Gunna. As far as I know this is the only place I am allowed to surf ATM. I wouldnt even travel to Porstsea or Leo because thats not exercising locally. Yet you city twats want to argue that it's your god given right to surf down here. Bunch of entitled fucks.

If you argue with a fool long enough you will lose sight of who the fool really is........

Dx3's picture
Dx3's picture
Dx3 commented Friday, 24 Jul 2020 at 10:18am

Any chance it was you who put that sign up on the Gunna surfcam on the trigger bros website.... Had a good laugh when I saw that.

Guess it's a shame for you MP is classified as Metro Melbourne.