Small, fun beachy options from Friday
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 22nd July)
Best Days: Friday through Sunday on the beaches
Not overly powerful but fun and clean waves to 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast yesterday morning, easing a little into the afternoon as winds tended variable. To the east conditions were bumpy though OK for the desperate.
This morning we've got similar conditions but less swell. The afternoon will become bumpy across all locations with a moderate to fresh SW breeze.
This week and weekend (Jul 23 - 26)
As talked about on Monday, the rest of the week and weekend aren't too special swell wise, but we'll see winds improving for the beaches and remaining so Saturday/Sunday which is a plus with such small swell.
Our current energy will ease further into tomorrow morning and I can't see there being much over an infrequent 2ft on the sets on the Surf Coast. The Mornington Peninsula looks to offer infrequent 3ft sets, but into the afternoon a new long-range and very inconsistent W/SW groundswell may offer the odd bigger one.
Winds will be favourable for the Surf Coast and W/NW tending NW, then variable into the afternoon. Later in the day the beaches to the east may improve for the keen.
Friday looks the pick of the beaches though with the inconsistent background energy coming in at 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to possibly 4ft to the east, easing slowly through the day. Local offshore winds are expected (N/NW Surf Coast and N/NE-N to the east), freshening a little and holding out of the N/NE through the afternoon.
Looking at the weekend and light N-N/NE winds will persist Saturday morning, variable out of the NE into the afternoon.
The surf will remain small, though a tight low that's formed south-southwest of WA today is generating a slim fetch of W/SW gales in our swell window. Any swell from this system is due Saturday morning with inconsistent 2ft+ sets continuing on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula (outside chance rare bigger one), smaller Sunday and to 1-1.5ft and 3ft respectively on the sets.
Conditions will remain favourable with local morning offshores, variable NE into the afternoon.
Next week onwards (Jul 27 onwards)
As we move into next week we'll see a strong node of the Long Wave Trough that's situated across Western Australia moving in slowly from the west.
This will bring a progression of strong frontal systems projecting up and towards WA closer to us, but initially they'll be on a downward, south-east projection which is unfavourable for swell production.
In saying this a few strengthening storms to our south-west should produce small to moderate sized pulses of SW groundswell, mixed in with some inconsistent long-range W/SW groundswell energy.
Size wise we're not looking at anything above 3ft on the Surf Coast as of yet, and 5-6ft to the east and winds will go onshore Monday with a trough, poor Tuesday but then revert back to the N-NW from Wednesday.
More on this and the expected swells Friday.