Increasing wind for the weekend but with a new swell
Victorian Surf Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 17th July)
Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning for the keen in protected spots, Tuesday morning protected spots
Cleaner conditions across all locations yesterday but small, slow and peaky on the Surf Coast to 1-2ft, better to the east and to 3ft on the sets.
Into the late afternoon a new pulse of inconsistent W/SW groundswell showed but this has peaked this morning with inconsistent 2-3ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 4ft to occasionally 5ft to the east. Conditions were calm, cold and clean with a variable north wind. We should see winds hold out of the N/NE all day as the swell eases.
This weekend and next week (Jul 18 - 24)
This morning’s peak in inconsistent W/SW groundswell was the first of two, with the second due to build through tomorrow and offer the most size later in the day and early Sunday.
The secondary pulse is the better of the two, generated by a stronger polar storm firing up from the west of the Heard Island region, in our far far swell window, but on top the active sea state generated by the storm linked to today’s swell.
The low broadened while weakening and projecting towards WA, then breaking down in our medium-long range swell window. This is the cause of the inconsistency with a long wait for the biggest and best sets.
Looking at the timing and tomorrow morning we’ll likely fall between swells with small, inconsistent 2ft waves on the Surf Coast, 3-4ft to the east, with the new groundswell building to 3ft late in the day across most breaks on the Surf Coast, up to 4ft on the biggest sets on the swell magnets. The Mornington Peninsula should build to 5-6ft later.
Winds are a bit of an issue though, strengthening from the N/NE-N from morning, so put in that extra paddle.
The swell is due to ease from a similar size across both coasts early Sunday and a dawn and strong N’ly will shift NW around midday/early afternoon.
We then look at the incoming mid-latitude front come low, bringing the change in winds Sunday. The models have converged on where and how this system will evolve and it looks to be a mix of what EC and GFS had on Wednesday. The storm is currently a polar front south-west of WA and will project a fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds through our swell window today before projecting up towards the Bight and weakening.
This will produce an inconsistent W/SW groundswell for Tuesday, but the front will move in across us Sunday evening, with a trailing fetch of strong W/SW winds through Monday. This will kick up a building mid-period SW swell for Monday, though peaking Tuesday with the W/SW groundswell.
Size wise the Surf Coast should build from 2-3ft or so early Monday to 3-4ft through the day with building surf to a stormy 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, easing from a similar size Tuesday across both coasts.
Winds will be OK for the Surf Coast and moderate to fresh from the W/NW, tending SW early afternoon and then similar but with less strength Tuesday, favouring protected spots.
Following this the surf will continue to ease into Wednesday with a morning W/NW breeze, offshore from the NW Thursday but with no decent new swell. Instead we’ll be relying on inconsistent, long-range W/SW groundswell from the Indian Ocean with this trend continuing into the weekend.
More on this Monday, have a great weekend!