Craig

Small swells with northerly winds, improving through next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 8th July)

Best Days: Today, exposed beaches tomorrow, Friday and Saturday for the keen, Wednesday onwards next week

Recap

A window of light winds yesterday morning with a mix of swells to 3ft or so on the Surf Coast, 4-5ft on the sets to the east. The initial pulse of long-period SW groundswell from the least favourable and tightest fetch around the deepening low didn't really come up as big as expected.

Today the reinforcing S/SW energy and offshore breeze are creating better waves across all locations working the big tides.

This week and next (Jul 9 - 17)

Make the most of today's size as we'll see the swell really dropping away from later this afternoon and more so into tomorrow and Friday.

We'll see leftover and smaller 2ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets tomorrow morning, 3ft on the sets to the east but with favourable N/NE winds to the east (N tending N/NW on the Surf Coast).

Friday will be minimal with some small and inconsistent background swell (from a slim polar fetch of W/SW gales) not above 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east. Winds will remain favourable though and moderate to fresh from the N/NE all day.

Saturday looks similar in size and more variable winds are expected as a wandering and broad trough moves across us, bringing morning N'ly winds, variable into the afternoon. The backside of the broad area of troughiness will unfortunately bring a light to moderate S/SE wind on Sunday (possibly variable at dawn) though with no decent new swell.

Now this depression is expected to move off the southern NSW coast during the weekend and then deepen into a fairly substantial swell generating system for the East Coast as discussed here.

This low will dominate our local winds through most of next week as it sits in the Tasman Sea, directing average and fresh SE winds into us Monday, possibly swinging more E'ly Tuesday and then likely to the N/NE on Wednesday as the system starts to weaken.

Swell wise, we've got nothing significant on the cards until mid-week. A very inconsistent long-period W/SW groundswell, generated over the coming days by a vigorous storm south-east of Madagascar will produce a slow increase in size Tuesday, peaking Wednesday. I wouldn't expect much over a very infrequent 1-2ft on the Surf Coast magnets, 3ft to possibly 4ft to the east when it peaks Wednesday morning.

A slightly better W/SW groundswell is due later in the day, produced by a secondary significant storm forming east of the Heard Island region this weekend. A better, bigger and more consistent swell should be seen, building to 3ft+ on the sets late in the day on the Surf Coast, 4-6ft to the east and holding Thursday morning. This should be with favourable winds out of the N'th, but we'll review this Friday.

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 3:54pm

Cracker arvo..

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 7:18pm

Hi I'm pigdog I'm a fkn kook with a poobum stance. Before you knock it captain poobum de snooza won a world title with our surfing style!
Question I live in South Melbourne. Can I surf anywhere in the ocean legally. Not after a answer what is wrong or right morally . Understanding I can't travel out of metropolitan Melbourne. So is east of Melbourne excepted.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 7:54pm

Sorry Pigdog but it's 'bay waves' for you for 6 weeks.

At least it's that time of year!

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:20pm

Ok cool thanks. I'm just taking this question to the people. It says I'm not allowed to leave metropolitan Melbourne for exercise /surfing and MP has been classed metropolitan Melbourne.
Keep in mind I'm not trying to twist a ruling to make it sound right to suite myself. I read the DHH every day and i have got to the point where I can't keep up with exact rulings.

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 10:26pm

For rule followers, I think the question of the MP surf expedition for city dwellers would fall outside the "you can go outside to get exercise, but you can't travel hundreds of kilometres to do it" guidelines.
For common sense followers, travelling long distances to do any activity during a pandemic isn't a great approach to help with reducing the length and severity of a pandemic.
Not following either of these rules probably leaves you open to the discretion of a frothing ticket writing cop, and leaves you well within the category of people who have caused the current situation by picking the eyeballs out of the guidelines to suit themselves.*

*clearly rooting people in a quarantine hotel while you're supposed to be running said quarantine hotel is more than bending the rules.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 10:58am

Ok thanks hanging tomatoes.
Don't want to upset anyone but not after common sense just what to know what is actually accepted by pandemic rules law for exercise/surfing in the ocean. Keeping in mind I live in South Melbourne

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 6:51pm

9 Leaving premises for exercise or outdoor recreation
(1) A person who ordinarily resides in the Restricted Area may leave the premises to exercise or to participate in outdoor recreation, but must:
(a) only participate in a sport or physical recreation activity, or only exercise at a facility, that is not prohibited by the Restricted Activity Directions (Restricted Areas), regardless of whether that activity or facility is within the Restricted Area or not; and

(4) These directions replace the Stay at Home Directions (Restricted Postcodes) insofar as they applied to persons who ordinarily reside in the Restricted Area.

Note: unreasonable travel would include travel within or outside the Restricted Area to obtain goods or services that can be obtained closer to home. An unreasonable period of time for the purposes of clause 6 or 9 includes an overnight stay.

Clause 9 is exercise
I think I have answered my own question

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 7:56pm

Yes pig dog, Mordialliac will be pumping this weekend!

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:14pm

Geek my local is south Melbourne beach at home...it's just like Bali...you duckdive and have a empty packet of sanboy chips on your head.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 8 Jul 2020 at 8:42pm

Seriously though, who knows what will happen if a cop having a bad day pulls you over after scanning your number plate.

hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes's picture
hangingtomatoes commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 5:32pm

Booze bus style setup under the GOR arches today.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 6:04pm

Was one on what looked like Moorooduc hwy too (on the Somerville coppers fb page). If you’re already in the GOR region what can they do though? There’s no lockdown if you’re there and your holiday started before today

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Thursday, 9 Jul 2020 at 9:00pm

My usual spot in the Westernport area seems to fall within the leper colony boundaries. I will wait and see what happens but with no driving out of plague town permitted for XC skiing allowed :-( , I will probably have a surf if there are conditions with some swell and good winds .
Give it a week or two to see how it all plays out. I will swim in the bay to keep fit because the pools are shut, again!.

https://www.dhhs.vic.gov.au/sport-and-exercise-metropolitan-melbourne-an...
"Can I leave the house to do exercise outdoors?
Yes. From 11:59 pm on 8 July, in metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire you can leave your home to exercise outdoors in a public space, either alone, with members of your household or with one other person outside your household.

This includes walking, running, hiking, bike riding, surfing, kayaking and other types of exercise such as yoga in the park.

In order to help slow the spread of coronavirus (COVID-19) across the state, you cannot leave metropolitan Melbourne or Mitchell Shire to exercise.

While exercising with people outside your household, you should keep at least 1.5 metres between yourself and others.

You should also stay close to home and use common sense and consideration when it comes to these activities."
"Can I go to the beach?
Yes. You can go to the beach for exercise or recreation only. You can swim or surf at the beach.

If you live in metropolitan Melbourne and Mitchell Shire, you cannot travel to go to the beach outside this area."
I live in an metro zone area with almost zero plague cases. I surf alone and go straight home.I think the wording permits surfing/ocean based recreation and exercise and travelling to surf as long as you fill up with petrol at your local petrol bowzer as per normal , wash your hands a lot , go straight there , surf alone and go straight home. It is necessary for my sanity to surf.

michael_birdsnest's picture
michael_birdsnest's picture
michael_birdsnest commented Friday, 10 Jul 2020 at 8:44am

2.4 metre whitey spotted in the Kilcunda area, also booze bus setup checking licences just before Anderson roundabout, local pubs also checking IDs on entry. So chances are you’ll get bitten by a shark, receive a $1,600 fine and not be able to get a beer and parma, better off staying at home I reckon.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 10 Jul 2020 at 9:16am

Another roadblock on peninsula freeway this morning too. They gonna get ya!

NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth's picture
NorthWestSouth commented Friday, 10 Jul 2020 at 9:12am

great corona confirmed in Torquay... Let's see what happens over the next week.

brainiac's picture
brainiac's picture
brainiac commented Friday, 10 Jul 2020 at 3:52pm

And confirmed cases on the Bellarine too. A local childcare centre closed due to positive test. Please stop travelling from Melbourne , respect our community’s as we are the ones who suffer . If you are already here please fuck off home.So far melb travellers are responsible for spreading at least 7 confirmed cases in areas in vic and interstate. Wait another 2 weeks it will be totally fucked.

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Friday, 10 Jul 2020 at 8:52pm

I am done for surfing until we get out of this lockdown. I saw a pod of Dolphins at Sandringham beach today. They seemed happy about being in the water :-). It was quite a sight. They were following two people on SUP.s.. I suspect we will go to level 4 lockdown which is akin to boarding up the front door of every house so no one can get outside at all.