Craig

Easing surf, with a new swell for the weekend

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th June)

Best Days: Thursday, Friday, later Saturday, Sunday

Recap

Monday afternoon's large pulse and kick in new W/SW groundswell eased back a touch into yesterday in size and consistency as winds remained favourable for the Surf Coast and other protected breaks all day.

Today our new pulse of large SW groundswell has filled in providing 6ft waves across the Surf Coast, 6-8ft to the east and variable winds are offering slightly lumpy conditions with the lack of offshore breeze to iron out the new swell. We should see the surf remaining decent most of the day as winds remain variable, tending more E'ly across the Surf Coast later afternoon.

This week and weekend (Jun 18 - 21)

We're currently seeing the peak in SW groundswell across the state and from here into the end of the week the size will gradually ease. Only a slight dip is due this afternoon but come tomorrow we should see the swell easing back from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Friday will be smaller and dropping back from 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east.

Today's variable winds are thanks to a high moving in behind the frontal activity linked to the large run of surf and we'll see a strong mid-latitude low off the Western Australian coast squeezing the western flank of the high through the end of the week.

This will bring persistent N'ly winds, moderate to fresh tomorrow and then stronger on Friday. We'll likely see winds tend N/NE at times east of Melbourne tomorrow and also Friday but expect mostly a straighter northerly flow.

Our new mix of W/SW and S/SW groundswells for the weekend are on track, with a slight upgrade in the S/SW energy from the polar fetch. As mentioned in Monday's notes, the mid-latitude low encroaching on the Western Australia coast has produced an acute W/SW groundswell that'll be very inconsistent and hard to discern under the better S/SW groundswell.

This S/SW groundswell will be generated tomorrow and early Friday by a great polar fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds (stronger and longer lived than forecast on Monday).

The swell should arrive later Saturday afternoon but likely peak Sunday morning. So with this most of Saturday is likely to be small to tiny and slow ahead of a late kick on the Surf Coast to 2-3ft and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Sunday should see better waves more to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

Winds will abate from Friday through the weekend as the mid-latitude low weakens on approach from the west, bringing moderate to fresh and early N tending N/NW-NW winds Saturday and then N/NW tending variable breezes on Sunday.

Come Monday the remnants of the low are expected to finally move east bringing freshening onshore winds along with small amounts of leftover swell.

Longer term, we've got plenty of W/SW groundswell on the way from later next week and into the weekend as a broad, strong and stalling frontal progression develops under the country through next week. More on this Friday though.

Comments

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Wednesday, 17 Jun 2020 at 6:55pm

Pulsing at last light biggest waves of the day

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 17 Jun 2020 at 7:22pm

Saw some incredible barrels today that were on par with any photos or clips I've seen from the last East Coast swell recently. Just without the hype!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 17 Jun 2020 at 7:26pm

Few footy heads as well eh..

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Wednesday, 17 Jun 2020 at 7:54pm

bit too cryptic for me today Craigos?

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 7:56am

Ahh yes, when it's solid out but the winds not quite right for the reefs to be on, best put your right foot forward and move on, otherwise you'll be left in the cold (:

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 10:40am

Footy players having a paddle at the heads?

I am the bone

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 2:08pm

Balin Instagram showing a nice(read heavy) one

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 2:34pm

Stonker

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 2:47pm

Got link?

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 7:03pm

Looks like he took it down.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 8:26pm

Nah, GF's talkin'bout up north.....They can have it I say, much better stuff around our beautiful continent for sure, including locally.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 17 Jun 2020 at 7:26pm

Nice lads, hope it halves in size overnight then Willi, in line with forecast, ha.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 7:52am

Open beaches along the Bellarine looking pretty chunky this AM.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 10:15am

Nice along that stretch this morning Ben. Very few on it.

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 3:20pm

Possibly a combo of good waves last night (and this week and last week and....) and because it was 2 degrees in Geelong at 630am......brrrrr!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Thursday, 18 Jun 2020 at 5:54pm

Gee, it's fading fast, slow 3ft at 13th late this arvo.