Craig

Wintry swell and varying winds

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th June)

Best Days: Surf Coast Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday on the beaches for the keen, Saturday and Sunday

Recap

Nothing significant for the weekend with small to tiny surf across both regions, clean Saturday but then wind affected to the east yesterday.

Today we've seen the first of multiple W/SW swells building across the state and with Cape Sorell on a steady rise we should see the surf continuing to build across all locations into this afternoon with persistent NW winds, discussed in more detail below.

On the build.

This week and weekend (Jun 16 - 21)

Coming in off a cold start (well not so much so after a stint on the NSW North Coast) it's tricky to pick up on an active episode of W/SW groundswell. Ben's pegged an increase in new W/SW groundswell to 4-6ft by this afternoon on the Surf Coast and Cape Sorell is looking decent size wise, though wave periods are a bit under what's ideal for such a westerly swell. Update: CS has just pinged with long-period energy.

Sets are starting to show on the Surf Coast now to 3ft, and I'd expect sets to reach at least 4-5ft this afternoon and on target with Ben's forecast.

It looks like we'll fall slightly between swells tomorrow ahead of what looks to be the best increase in size on Wednesday.

The drawn out frontal progression linked to this week's run of swell has weakened temporarily and this should result in the size dropping back a touch to 3-5ft tomorrow on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east. Fresh NW tending W/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast over the beaches on the Mornington Peninsula.

What we'll see today though is the trailing embedded front on the tail of the progression strengthening south of the Bight. A great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will move on top an active sea state and through our western and then south-western swell windows this evening and tomorrow as it pushes towards and then across Tasmania.

A large pulse of W/SW-SW groundswell will fill in Wednesday and kick the Surf Coast to 5-6ft on the swell magnets, 6-8ft to the east and local winds will be favourable through the morning and out of the W/NW (possibly variable to the east) ahead of weak E'ly sea breezes as the swell starts to drop late.

Come Thursday the swell will be on the ease and moderate to fresh N/NE-N winds will open up plenty of options with easing sets from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east.

Stronger N/NE-N winds will favour the beaches on Friday as the swell becomes smaller and back to 2ft or so on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east for the keen.

Moving into the weekend, there's nothing significant on the cards as a large blocking high moves in behind the frontal progression linked to the coming days of swell, follow by a mid-latitude low. This will limit the swell generation potential for our region, though an inconsistent W/SW groundswell mixed with a small S/SW groundswell should provide a couple of options for the beaches.

The W/SW groundswell is being produced by a mid-latitude low that's currently north-east of the Heard Island region which will be mostly poorly aimed for us and not generate much over a very infrequent 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula later Saturday and Sunday.

The better S/SW swell should be produced by a small fetch of polar W/SW gales well south of the country Thursday. This should produce a better and slightly more consistent swell for Saturday afternoon and Sunday to 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 4ft+ to the east.

With the mid-latitude low forming and stalling to our west winds look to have a northerly tendency, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.

Comments

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 1:42pm

Slowly on the way up.

sandgroper's picture
sandgroper's picture
sandgroper commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 1:59pm

Just moved over to Vic from WA and these notes have been a great help, along with Loveridge's book.

Never really realised how easy it was back home with small tides, relatively straight coast and generally SW swell. Feels like I'm back at school again with all the maps out.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 2:02pm
sandgroper's picture
sandgroper's picture
sandgroper commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 2:11pm

Jeeez, that's a bit steep! Luckily I managed to pick one up in Pt Elliot on the way over at what now may have been the bargain of my life.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 2:30pm

Just checked Amazon, there’s a copy on there for $1000 haha!

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 3:33pm

Ha! Just went and checked to be sure but that book is still in a book case at my joint from when I bought it in the 80's

Richard Loveridge also played in a couple of Hawthorn premierships back then. Skillful little rover and handy surfer.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 6:08pm

That's the same as the one I've got at home, they did release another more modern version at some point, same info but it also had some nice color photos etc.

That was my bible when I was much younger, I would analyse every word, hunting for clues, like a super surf sleuth ;)

love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing hate surfers's picture
love surfing ha... commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2020 at 12:22pm

Ah man.... I used to have a copy of that as a kid. No idea where it ended up. Bugger.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 2:09pm

had a touch up from a 6 ft set at bells half an hour ago so she’s here.. just inconsistent still..

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 2:14pm

Good to hear. Looks bloody inconsistent though (not surprising when there's a lotta west in the direction).

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 2:27pm

Biggest set I've seen at TQ today just came through.

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 3:51pm

Did the SUP get taken out?

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 4:06pm

Affirmative.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 4:50pm

Nothing funnier than seeing that (as long as you're at least 20m clear of them).

Stok's picture
Stok's picture
Stok commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 5:03pm

A goat boat helplessly paddling towards a feathering close out is just as good.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 4:10pm

Well, hello there.

drchris's picture
drchris's picture
drchris commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 6:36pm

A nice set took out most of the crew around 3:30 out there Ben . Left two of us out there for the next half hour . If you’ve got a couple of clips of a black mal or a 12 footer between 3-4pm love to see them ! Some fun ones .

tango's picture
tango's picture
tango commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 6:56pm

Then that was you on the black mal DrC....was wondering who it was. Watched a few nice turns, mate. You were lucky DrShred wasn't out there til later!

drchris's picture
drchris's picture
drchris commented Monday, 15 Jun 2020 at 7:12pm

Haha , docshred saw me in the carpark and almost got me out there for round two !

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2020 at 10:50am

Last night was definitely better than this morning, sure was lully but they were quick and powerful when they turned up. I looked at first light today and I couldn't find the motivation to get out if the car and suit-up, think I've finally turned into an old man, I went to work instead..... What Da??

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2020 at 12:44pm

Ya didn't miss much. Loooooong lulls, a lot of sitting around and as always around here these days, fucken crowded.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2020 at 4:36pm

Thanks ringy, your post made me feel better, I hate sitting around in a line-up on a cold dark winters morning, if you can paddle out, catch a dozen or so good ones in a couple of hours and then head to work with that 'surf done for the day froth' then that's a different story.

Hope you still managed a few

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2020 at 3:55pm

Lovely lines still pouring through the Surf Coast.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2020 at 5:13pm

Sorell still climbing upwards.

Vunerable's picture
Vunerable's picture
Vunerable commented Tuesday, 16 Jun 2020 at 10:02pm

Monday arvo incoming pulse delivered.
Stay tuned.