Wintry swell and varying winds
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 15th June)
Best Days: Surf Coast Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday, Friday on the beaches for the keen, Saturday and Sunday
Nothing significant for the weekend with small to tiny surf across both regions, clean Saturday but then wind affected to the east yesterday.
Today we've seen the first of multiple W/SW swells building across the state and with Cape Sorell on a steady rise we should see the surf continuing to build across all locations into this afternoon with persistent NW winds, discussed in more detail below.
This week and weekend (Jun 16 - 21)
Coming in off a cold start (well not so much so after a stint on the NSW North Coast) it's tricky to pick up on an active episode of W/SW groundswell. Ben's pegged an increase in new W/SW groundswell to 4-6ft by this afternoon on the Surf Coast and Cape Sorell is looking decent size wise, though wave periods are a bit under what's ideal for such a westerly swell. Update: CS has just pinged with long-period energy.
Sets are starting to show on the Surf Coast now to 3ft, and I'd expect sets to reach at least 4-5ft this afternoon and on target with Ben's forecast.
It looks like we'll fall slightly between swells tomorrow ahead of what looks to be the best increase in size on Wednesday.
The drawn out frontal progression linked to this week's run of swell has weakened temporarily and this should result in the size dropping back a touch to 3-5ft tomorrow on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east. Fresh NW tending W/NW winds will favour the Surf Coast over the beaches on the Mornington Peninsula.
What we'll see today though is the trailing embedded front on the tail of the progression strengthening south of the Bight. A great fetch of gale to severe-gale W/SW winds will move on top an active sea state and through our western and then south-western swell windows this evening and tomorrow as it pushes towards and then across Tasmania.
A large pulse of W/SW-SW groundswell will fill in Wednesday and kick the Surf Coast to 5-6ft on the swell magnets, 6-8ft to the east and local winds will be favourable through the morning and out of the W/NW (possibly variable to the east) ahead of weak E'ly sea breezes as the swell starts to drop late.
Come Thursday the swell will be on the ease and moderate to fresh N/NE-N winds will open up plenty of options with easing sets from the 4ft range on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east.
Stronger N/NE-N winds will favour the beaches on Friday as the swell becomes smaller and back to 2ft or so on the Surf Coast, 3ft+ to the east for the keen.
Moving into the weekend, there's nothing significant on the cards as a large blocking high moves in behind the frontal progression linked to the coming days of swell, follow by a mid-latitude low. This will limit the swell generation potential for our region, though an inconsistent W/SW groundswell mixed with a small S/SW groundswell should provide a couple of options for the beaches.
The W/SW groundswell is being produced by a mid-latitude low that's currently north-east of the Heard Island region which will be mostly poorly aimed for us and not generate much over a very infrequent 3ft on the Mornington Peninsula later Saturday and Sunday.
The better S/SW swell should be produced by a small fetch of polar W/SW gales well south of the country Thursday. This should produce a better and slightly more consistent swell for Saturday afternoon and Sunday to 3ft on the sets across the Surf Coast, 4ft+ to the east.
With the mid-latitude low forming and stalling to our west winds look to have a northerly tendency, but we'll have a closer look at this on Wednesday.