Generally average westerly swells until next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 27th May)
Best Days: Beaches Friday afternoon and for the keen Sunday, Surf Coast for the keen Sunday and possibly Monday morning, mid-late next week
A peaky mix of easing SW swell and small SE windswell yesterday morning to 2ft on the Surf Coast, 3ft to occasionally 4ft to the east, cleaning up and easing further through the day.
This morning the swell was smaller again, with background energy keeping the beaches to the east round 2ft to occasionally 3ft, and 1-2ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets.
This week and weekend (May 28 - 31)
Tomorrow morning will remain tiny, even though the models are showing an uptick in size. The source of this swell was a strong low firing up off WA but remaining too north of our swell window to generate any size.
Later into the afternoon though an inconsistent mix of W/SW-SW groundswell should start to show, peaking on Friday. The source being distant but strong polar storms around the Heard Island region over the weekend, followed by a spawning front pushing off the activity towards WA.
The Surf Coast may see inconsistent 2ft sets later in the day but more so Friday, with infrequent 3-5ft waves on the Mornington Peninsula. Conditions tomorrow will be best on the Surf Coast (with the tiny swell) with a moderate to fresh NW tending W/NW breeze, while Friday could be a little wind affected on the Mornington Peninsula in the morning, improving into the afternoon with a N/NW breeze before lunch, shifting N/NE into the afternoon (remaining N/NW all day on the Surf Coast).
The weekend looks generally small and tricky with strong mid-latitude systems developing over WA, but weakening and tracking south-east once pushing through our swell window.
The first of these is due this evening, generating a burst of strong to near gale-force W/SW winds from south of WA while dipping south-east.
The swell from this system is due Saturday morning but only to 2ft+ on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft to the east.
A secondary strong system will follow the same track but aim a patch fetch of W/NW gales in our western swell window. This won't provide any new decent kick in swell for the afternoon any more, likely just maintaining very inconsistent slightly smaller sized surf across both coasts Sunday to 2ft on the Surf Coast and possibly 3-4ft+ to the east.
Winds will be favourable in direction but not strength for the beaches with strengthening N/NE winds Saturday as a vigorous but weakening mid-latitude front approaches from the west.
Sunday will then see winds weaken a touch though remain gusty from the NW tending N/NW as the front slips south-east.
It's tricky to decipher the swell pulses from the weakening mid-latitude front but we'll see a burst of strong to gale-force W/SW winds generated right south-west of us Saturday evening, likely kicking up a late increase in small W/SW swell Sunday, peaking Monday.
Again no major size is expected with 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast Monday morning, 3-5ft or so to the east. A possibly stronger mid-latitude low is forecast to move in behind this activity on the weekend, though the models diverge on the strength and positioning. EC doesn't look great and will relate in a weak and onshore windswell event.
Of greater importance is some follow up larger and more powerful SW groundswell from a polar storm moving under the country, but we'll have to have a closer look at this Friday.