Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 15th May)

Best Days: Every day has a quality wave across selected regions

Recap

Yesterday's reinforcing SW swell provided good sized sets across the Surf Coast to 4ft+ on the magnets with good conditions most of the day, large on the beaches to the east though workable with light winds.

Today the swell has eased in size but the Surf Coast is still picking up 3ft sets, 4ft to the east with a lingering onshore wind but this will tend variable any minute now and remain so into the afternoon, creating decent conditions for the rest of the day.

This weekend and next week (May 16 - 22)

There's no change to the outlook for tomorrow with the surf expected to remain small but not drop below 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula as a small reinforcing swell fills in.

Conditions will be great all day on the Surf Coast with a moderate N/NW tending variable breeze, improving on the beaches on the Mornington Peninsula with N/NW-N tending N/NE winds.

We've now got a slightly better day of surf for Sunday, with our inconsistent W/SW groundswell from mixed fetches south-west of WA now due to be mixed with a better and more consistent SW groundswell.

The SW groundswell was generated yesterday evening and further into this morning from the re-intensification of the progression west-southwest of us,

A good fetch of W-W/NW gales with embedded bursts of severe-gales through our south-western swell window should produce the most consistent and best size Sunday. We may see the swell kick late tomorrow but peak Sunday morning to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east. The swell is likely to ease into the afternoon as the less consistent W/SW groundswell provides similar but slower waves.

Winds will be favourable on the Surf Coast and N/NW tending variable from the NE into the afternoon, similar east of Melbourne.

Monday morning will likely see a temporary low point in energy ahead of a building new W/SW groundswell into the afternoon, peaking Tuesday.

The source of this swell is a good but distant polar front generating a fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window as it projects east-northeast towards WA today, weakening tomorrow.

Size wise, we should see the Surf Coast kicking to 3ft to occasionally 4ft later in the day Monday, 6ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula, peaking Tuesday morning to 3-4ft and 5-6ft+ respectively, though inconsistent.

Another smaller and more distant fetch of W/SW gales moving in behind this front will slow the easing trend through Wednesday with easing sets from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Locally winds look great for the beaches with a N/NE tending NE breeze Monday (N tending E/NE breeze on the Surf Coast), strengthening from the N/NE on Tuesday. Stronger N/NE winds are due on Wednesday as the swell slowly eases creating tricker but still good surf.

Moving into the end of the week and conditions could remain favourable for the beaches (models diverge) with a couple of new SW and S/SW swells. The source of these will be a polar storm developing south-west of Tassie mid-week, but we'll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!