Craig

Fun swells and winds from the northern quadrant

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 15th May)

Best Days: Every day has a quality wave across selected regions

Recap

Yesterday's reinforcing SW swell provided good sized sets across the Surf Coast to 4ft+ on the magnets with good conditions most of the day, large on the beaches to the east though workable with light winds.

Today the swell has eased in size but the Surf Coast is still picking up 3ft sets, 4ft to the east with a lingering onshore wind but this will tend variable any minute now and remain so into the afternoon, creating decent conditions for the rest of the day.

This weekend and next week (May 16 - 22)

There's no change to the outlook for tomorrow with the surf expected to remain small but not drop below 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula as a small reinforcing swell fills in.

Conditions will be great all day on the Surf Coast with a moderate N/NW tending variable breeze, improving on the beaches on the Mornington Peninsula with N/NW-N tending N/NE winds.

We've now got a slightly better day of surf for Sunday, with our inconsistent W/SW groundswell from mixed fetches south-west of WA now due to be mixed with a better and more consistent SW groundswell.

The SW groundswell was generated yesterday evening and further into this morning from the re-intensification of the progression west-southwest of us,

A good fetch of W-W/NW gales with embedded bursts of severe-gales through our south-western swell window should produce the most consistent and best size Sunday. We may see the swell kick late tomorrow but peak Sunday morning to 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east. The swell is likely to ease into the afternoon as the less consistent W/SW groundswell provides similar but slower waves.

Winds will be favourable on the Surf Coast and N/NW tending variable from the NE into the afternoon, similar east of Melbourne.

Monday morning will likely see a temporary low point in energy ahead of a building new W/SW groundswell into the afternoon, peaking Tuesday.

The source of this swell is a good but distant polar front generating a fetch of W/SW gales through our western swell window as it projects east-northeast towards WA today, weakening tomorrow.

Size wise, we should see the Surf Coast kicking to 3ft to occasionally 4ft later in the day Monday, 6ft on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula, peaking Tuesday morning to 3-4ft and 5-6ft+ respectively, though inconsistent.

Another smaller and more distant fetch of W/SW gales moving in behind this front will slow the easing trend through Wednesday with easing sets from 3ft on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Locally winds look great for the beaches with a N/NE tending NE breeze Monday (N tending E/NE breeze on the Surf Coast), strengthening from the N/NE on Tuesday. Stronger N/NE winds are due on Wednesday as the swell slowly eases creating tricker but still good surf.

Moving into the end of the week and conditions could remain favourable for the beaches (models diverge) with a couple of new SW and S/SW swells. The source of these will be a polar storm developing south-west of Tassie mid-week, but we'll have a closer look at this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 15 May 2020 at 1:47pm

Much better..

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 15 May 2020 at 2:16pm

...somewhere else haha.

If this sticks to the script, it’ll be the best in....years?

I am the bone

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Friday, 15 May 2020 at 3:09pm

If you like close outs, slightly too big I reckon

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 15 May 2020 at 3:22pm

That i do. Wash through size and strong rip errrrrday please

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 15 May 2020 at 3:24pm

perfect

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 15 May 2020 at 3:23pm

Fussy lot..

barbielunchboxer's picture
barbielunchboxer's picture
barbielunchboxer commented Saturday, 16 May 2020 at 9:54pm

Dbone I’m heading down to 13th, come over if you’re not working ;)

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Monday, 18 May 2020 at 11:47pm

Cheers SN for the great service its helped me fine tune where works best on what and helped me score countless epic conditions, chose to part ways with using your forecasts /subscription for the meanwhile as my recipe to have fun out in the surf is pretty simple nowadays and rarely correlates to the particular forecast. I do tend to read most surf media from stab through to beach grit and you guys tend to hit the spot with the right amount and type of content I like so cheers for that. Time now to count the days of when I begin to miss watching the cams and reading your forecasts and decide to subscribe again.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 5:38am

Your comment intrigues me willi.
Wondering why you decided to stop subscribing once you’ve started?
Is it financial? I think it’s $8.95 a month. Just over $2.00 a week. Would you notice being out of pocket $2.00 a week?

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 7:47am

Nup not financial I liked supporting them for what you get you could easily expect to pay more. It’s more that of recent I usually just surf the same spot couple of Spots regardless of conditions and it’s pretty easy around here to figure out where’s going to be good by looking at just one spot. Also for me how much fun I have isn’t really to do with if the surfs good some of my favourite surfs are at a closeout beach you When I get to spend time in the water with dad down the beach by ourselves. Definitely would subscribe again if I was going interstate somewhere I could pick what region to base myself in for the next few days kinda thing because those trips I have more of an urge to score good waves.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 8:00am

Makes perfect sense. Hope you been getting some

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 7:54am

Thanks for the support Willi, hopefully see you back on board soon.

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 8:06am

I still do like surfing good waves maybe Ive been too spoilt but its pretty easy to make a good guess off the day to day trend from the buoys and wind. If I didn't have as many opportunities to surf good w NCO I would also still be subscribing.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 19 May 2020 at 8:09am

Haha touche'.