Craig

Average end to the week, windy poor weekend

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 8th April)

Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow on the beaches, Monday, Tuesday

Recap

Monday afternoon's strong kick in new S/SW groundswell eased back through yesterday from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east with workable onshore winds, poor into the afternoon.

This morning the swell is smaller, easing and with fresher onshore winds creating average to poor surf.

This week and weekend (Apr 9 – 12)

We'll see the size continuing to drop out over the coming days and as touched on in Monday's notes, an uptick in size shown tomorrow and subsequently into Friday morning isn't expected to occur.

The models are incorrectly combining a very long-range and small W/SW groundswell that was generated south-east of Madagascar with existing easing mid-period S/SW swell energy.

I'd be expecting small to tiny waves on the Surf Coast to 1ft to maybe 2ft, with the Mornington Peninsula around 2ft to possibly 3ft.

Conditions are still set to improve across the beaches through the day as winds shift E/NE-NE through the morning, variable early afternoon ahead of sea breezes.

Friday morning should see moderate to fresh N'ly winds early and clean conditions but the swell will be tiny on the Surf Coast, and fading from 2t max on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a NW wind shift into the afternoon.

Now, moving into the weekend we've got some consensus on what's expected and guess which forecast model won? ECMWF of course.

We're expected to see a strengthening polar frontal progression developing south-west of us and too late to generate any real swell, but a cold front spawning off the back of this is due to project up and into us Saturday, followed by a more polar front through Saturday afternoon and evening.

Saturday's front will project a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds up and into us, moving through around dawn, bringing strong W tending W/SW and then SW winds locally.

We'll see a mix of building windswell and close-range swell, from a small 2ft on the Surf Coast and stormy 4ft to the east, but kicking rapidly to a stormy 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft respectively to the east.

The swell will ease back into Sunday with generally poor conditions under a fresh W/SW tending SW breeze. There's only a very slim chance of an early W'ly on the Surf Coast with a drop back to 3-4ft, 6ft+ to the east.

The secondary polar front will generate a reinforcing S/SW swell for Monday/Tuesday, with a polar fetch of weakening W'ly gale tending strong SW winds moving through our swell window on the weekend.

Size wise the Surf Coast should hang around 3ft+ or so, 5ft to the east along with a better W/NW offshore Monday morning, giving into sea breezes and then possibly more N/NW winds on Tuesday, but we'll have a closer look at this Friday.

Longer term a strong node of the Long Wave Trough moving in from the west next week looks to bring some stronger Southern Ocean frontal activity and increased swell activity from later week, but more on this Friday.

Comments

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 9:14am
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 1:29pm

Do you think they should also put the ban in place for the Surf Coast and Bellarine stretch? For this weekend at least?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 1:49pm

No they shouldn't. Everyone should just adhere to the message that has been given ad finitum.

DON'T travel to other areas for NON ESSENTIAL activity.

Looks like Huey is playing his part anyway. The surf is going to be dogshit down here for the Easter long weekend so don't waste you're petrol or risk a pretty heavy fine by coming here anyway.

Totally not worth it.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 6:38pm

There are only four reasons for Victorians to leave their home: food and supplies, medical care and care giving, exercise, and work or education.
That's what's expected of every Victorian.
Im sick of these fkn dickfolps making up There own bullshit rules so they can justify what ever crap they think they can do outside and tell other people they can not for what ever reason.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 2:16pm

Has anyone copped a fine for travelling to exercise (surfing) yet?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:18pm

I person was fined for driving to a mountain bike precinct to go for a ride, so travelling surfers can expect the same.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:20pm

VL
Was this in the news?
Any links?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:28pm

Yes it was a couple of days ago. I just saw it in passing. The fine was something like $1600. A bunch of trail head parking areas in the region have been closed. There's such a strong message saying don't visit.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:34pm

Would it be fair to say a fine was fair, given the area they were travelling to was closed for what they intended to do?
It would be like any surfer, no matter where they lived going for a surf and no one was allowed on the sand (Bass coast this weekend) = fine

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 9:02pm
Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:02pm

That’s interesting Blackers, especially the quote:

“ chief health officer Dr Brett Sutton on Monday wrote on Twitter: “Yes, you can drive directly to a place of exercise if there’s nothing adjacent to your home.””

blackers's picture
blackers's picture
blackers commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:31pm

Yup, and ABC news tonight stated categorically that surfing was an allowed activity.

WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol's picture
WarriSymbol commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 2:23pm

Personally I reckon every beach car park should be completely empty.
If you are further than walking distance stay at home.
Exercise is essential but driving to exercise is not, no matter how short the trip.

Just had a thought though, I can remember as a grom walking in the dark from Torquay to Bells for the early. Used to hitch a ride back though.
Don't be like Warri kiddies, stay at home.

denchy's picture
denchy's picture
denchy commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 4:05pm

There are extra police allocated to coastal strips to check illegal camping and travelling

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:20pm

A very simple solution to the problem of travelling surfers is to just mercilessly burn them until they get the message they just aren't welcome during the covid crisis.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:27pm

In the risk of experiencing the wrath of VL.
What evidence is there to show that surfers who jump in the car to exercise (which as per DHHS is allowed), surf (while social distancing) don’t stop anywhere else, and go home are a problem?
Everyone limit how much we surf, go by the rules and all should be okay.
Numbers are going down, not up, so it could be said, how surfers have been acting / behaving is okay?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:35pm

That's simply not what I have seen down here. Crowds are up, carparks are full, and people are coming down in groups. The message has been loud and clear. Don't come. That message is based on medical advice and it's being ignored.
Personally, I'd like to see surfing banned, because the local groms aren't abiding by social distancing rules either.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 7:53pm

It doesn’t require banning, it just requires people to accept they can’t do it as much, otherwise they may not be able to do it all. If u are going to surf and are concerned of potential bans, only go once a week and ensure u social distance - you’ll be doing your part to keep numbers low and also demonstrate that we all can surf responsibly.
Social distancing isn’t hard, can’t understand why people struggle with the idea of staying 1.5m+ away. My last surf was before stage 3 kicked in and the line up was busy, but everyone pretty easily kept 2m distance at all times.
It’s also simple, anyone rocking up in groups = fine. It’s the most clear rule, o more than 2 people in a group, family members / same members of a household excluded.
If we all play nice, we all should be allowed to play.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 8:13pm

How many weeks of fragrantly disregarding the advice should the government allow before dropping the hammer? Should we wait for a Mornington peninsula cluster to happen on the Bass and Surf Coasts before banning surfing? At least the surf looks absolute poo over Easter. That simple fact could save lives down here.
One of our main medical clinics in town is closed all Easter because of the doctor shortage. There's another reason not to come. Put the board in the rack for a while.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

denchy's picture
denchy's picture
denchy commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 8:06pm

Well surfers are mostly selfish picks at the best of times. They all sprout what everyone wants to hear. Don't surf but it's ok for me to go out because I'm responsible. Joke.
Like global warming. They are 1 with nature and love the environment. But drive for hours looking for waves, have their petrol chemical sleds, jump on planes to exotic places.
Lol. They believe their own bullshit.
You don't live down here, stay home. It's the law.

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 8:29pm

Denchy
Can you provide a link to the law you refer to please?
DHHS website stipulates the rules under stage 3, also has some FAQs, but I cannot see the law you are referring to.

Ewy's picture
Ewy's picture
Ewy commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 8:50pm

Sat - 4-5 ft S/W winds, plenty of option along the GOR this Easter weekend. Just have to go search!

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 9:07pm

You idiot

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 9:09pm

It's straight to the beach, surf and then leave. You shouldn't be hunting around and driving 'searching' for waves. Essential travel only.

Also the swell is weak, windswelly and more on that lower size range.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 9:50pm

No Craig, it's stay at home.
That message has been broadcasted long, loud, and clear by federal, state, and local governments.
Locals are going to be absolutely furious if people travel down to the coast to surf. Don't expect a warm welcome.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:05pm

VL
Did you read the link above that blackers provided?
The quote I referenced should also be noted.
Note: it doesn’t mean let’s all go to the beach, but falls in line with all of my posts above.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 10:11pm

Frodge, that quote is from Monday and there's been multiple and very specific messages saying stay at home and don't come to the Surf Coast and Bass Coast since then.
Stop cherry picking old messages you want to hear and listen to the most recent ones.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 11:25pm

VL
I feel this is where u may go off in a tangent - please let’s stay on track.
I’m not saying let’s all go to the beach and hang out, especially this weekend. I’d probably back that up and say no matter where u live, if u have already surfed this week, don’t go again, in order to keep numbers down.
I’m saying exercise is allowed, jumping in the car to exercise is allowed. Practice social distancing.
Let’s all share what we love responsibly.
The message you speak of is for all those who want to congregate, hang out, hug, shake hands and high five.
There are only 4 reasons to leave your house.......

willibutler's picture
willibutler's picture
willibutler commented Wednesday, 8 Apr 2020 at 9:09pm

driving by a surf spot in your car isn't the "search" along the GOR

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 7:55pm

50 out at Lorne for sure Saturday/Sunday.

Then watch surfing get banned

Ewy's picture
Ewy's picture
Ewy commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 6:36am

So if I live at Juc how far can I go?

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 7:32am

Between Hoylake Avenue and Bells Blvd.

Ewy's picture
Ewy's picture
Ewy commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 8:18am

So if you live in town(Torquay), you shouldn't be surfing Bells/Winki then?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 8:55am

If you have to surf, don't drive to it.
Now I'm sure Ewy will say but it's just a short drive from Torquay. I'm going to just park, surf, leave. What harm could I do?
Next person will say, It's just a short drive from Armstrong Creek, then Geelong, then Werribee, then Melbourne. And then it's a shitshow.
The line has to be drawn somehow. Postcode or shire boundaries throw up crazy anomalies. In the case of the latter, somebody out beyond Winchelsea could surf Torquay while people in Mt Duneed can't.
Walking / riding to the surf would ensure people didn't travel any more than 5km. That's local exercise.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy's picture
lostdoggy commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 9:10am

And how many people drink an innocent coffee in their car on the way to the beach and then explode on the bells shitters?

Frodge's picture
Frodge's picture
Frodge commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 9:34am

VL
Where I get lost with your message is, you (and others on this SW) keep asking everyone to respect the rules, but you keep ignoring what the actual rules are and want to make up your own. If you need clarification, I keep saying refer to DHHS website for the LATEST information.
Also, side note: going by municipalities, Mornington Peninsula already one of the highest high number of cases, in comparison to others municipalities in Victoria.

Heath1973's picture
Heath1973's picture
Heath1973 commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 1:17pm

I would suggest if your car and licence are not registered to the shire you are surfing in, you are going to get fined if pulled over.
Police Minister made it very clear about unnecessary travel. Don't expect any fines to be revoked either.
Would you pay $1600 for a sub-par surf?

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 1:45pm

Great in theory but the problem now is the premier has said travelling to your holiday home is legal, there is a huge grey area. So here come the self-entitled wankers from the city...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 1:47pm

Not sure why he said that, totally against other advice..

Heath1973's picture
Heath1973's picture
Heath1973 commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 2:31pm

Pretty obvious, half of these knobs in parliament have beach houses at Portsea and Lorne.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 2:55pm

https://mobile.twitter.com/AlexanderDowner/status/1247498933842018305

So this guy has ‘reportedly’ been swanning around Lorne over the last few days. Says it all really

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 6:56pm

They wouldn't be able to afford portsea not by a long shot

Detox's picture
Detox's picture
Detox commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 2:43pm

All the holiday home owners are down my way, 4 cars per driveway. flooding the nearest major town because our local shops have closed. beaches are shut soon so families and groups of people are just walking around aimlessly and making sure our already shitfull internet struggles, helping everyone on a forced quarantines life easier. They get told regularly by all ages of our community to go home (in other words) and that we wont forget, But self imposed entitlement runs deep.
On a side next to none of them are surfers so swellnets not our problem, piss poor government leadership mixed with a massive amount of people that are happy to put themselves first over a communities want for health

topgeer's picture
topgeer's picture
topgeer commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 2:52pm

Reporting from NZ, bloke in Dunners got busted MTB riding 30km along the peninsula to go surfing, took all the back roads, etc..muppet

Age's picture
Age's picture
Age commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 8:59am

Herald Sun again running with "Surfing is banned". Don't know where they are pulling their information from. https://www.heraldsun.com.au/coronavirus/a-comprehensive-list-of-the-thi...

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 9:10am

"So if you live in town(Torquay), you shouldn't be surfing Bells/Winki then?"

Correct.

You've got plenty of great options! Whites beach all the way to that bastion of the 'adult mal riding learner'; Torquay Point and everything in between.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 10:46am

I just got an email with clarification of windsurfing and kite surfing.

https://betterboating.vic.gov.au/news/covid19-boatramp-closures/

Age's picture
Age's picture
Age commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 10:49am

"Recreational boating includes all forms of human powered boating, including canoeing, kayaking, surf skiing, stand up paddle boarding and rowing, all forms of powered boating including jet skiing, and all forms of wind powered boating includes yachting, kitesurfing and windsurfing." - So basically. Don't surf no matter how close you live to beach.

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 8:00pm

Just ban it for everyone.
This whole locals only bullshit is just that, bullshit.
Calling holiday house owners entitled ...yet being completely entitled about 'our' surf.
Flogs

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Thursday, 9 Apr 2020 at 9:18pm

Ban it for no one!!!

The Plowking's picture
The Plowking's picture
The Plowking commented Friday, 10 Apr 2020 at 7:50am

Bass Coast, surfings out for 4 days.

Phillip island surf report still operational lol.