Average end to the week, windy poor weekend
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 8th April)
Best Days: Keen surfers tomorrow on the beaches, Monday, Tuesday
Monday afternoon's strong kick in new S/SW groundswell eased back through yesterday from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 4-6ft to the east with workable onshore winds, poor into the afternoon.
This morning the swell is smaller, easing and with fresher onshore winds creating average to poor surf.
This week and weekend (Apr 9 – 12)
We'll see the size continuing to drop out over the coming days and as touched on in Monday's notes, an uptick in size shown tomorrow and subsequently into Friday morning isn't expected to occur.
The models are incorrectly combining a very long-range and small W/SW groundswell that was generated south-east of Madagascar with existing easing mid-period S/SW swell energy.
I'd be expecting small to tiny waves on the Surf Coast to 1ft to maybe 2ft, with the Mornington Peninsula around 2ft to possibly 3ft.
Conditions are still set to improve across the beaches through the day as winds shift E/NE-NE through the morning, variable early afternoon ahead of sea breezes.
Friday morning should see moderate to fresh N'ly winds early and clean conditions but the swell will be tiny on the Surf Coast, and fading from 2t max on the Mornington Peninsula ahead of a NW wind shift into the afternoon.
Now, moving into the weekend we've got some consensus on what's expected and guess which forecast model won? ECMWF of course.
We're expected to see a strengthening polar frontal progression developing south-west of us and too late to generate any real swell, but a cold front spawning off the back of this is due to project up and into us Saturday, followed by a more polar front through Saturday afternoon and evening.
Saturday's front will project a fetch of strong to gale-force W/SW-SW winds up and into us, moving through around dawn, bringing strong W tending W/SW and then SW winds locally.
We'll see a mix of building windswell and close-range swell, from a small 2ft on the Surf Coast and stormy 4ft to the east, but kicking rapidly to a stormy 4-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft respectively to the east.
The swell will ease back into Sunday with generally poor conditions under a fresh W/SW tending SW breeze. There's only a very slim chance of an early W'ly on the Surf Coast with a drop back to 3-4ft, 6ft+ to the east.
The secondary polar front will generate a reinforcing S/SW swell for Monday/Tuesday, with a polar fetch of weakening W'ly gale tending strong SW winds moving through our swell window on the weekend.
Size wise the Surf Coast should hang around 3ft+ or so, 5ft to the east along with a better W/NW offshore Monday morning, giving into sea breezes and then possibly more N/NW winds on Tuesday, but we'll have a closer look at this Friday.
Longer term a strong node of the Long Wave Trough moving in from the west next week looks to bring some stronger Southern Ocean frontal activity and increased swell activity from later week, but more on this Friday.