Moderate swells and favourable winds
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 27th March)
Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow, less so Sunday with the wind, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning, Friday morning
Plenty of swell on the coast yesterday with a new SW groundswell, easing through the day with early average to poor conditions with a fresh onshore wind, improving into the afternoon as winds eased.
Today conditions have started to improve with offshore winds kicking in across all locations, a bit morning sick and lumpy early, straightening up and improving as you read along with the incoming tide.
Winds will shift south-east this afternoon, creating bumpy conditions.
This weekend and next week (Mar 28 – Apr 3)
Moving into the weekend and we've got good conditions for the beaches tomorrow, a bit blowy and windy into Sunday along with fun pulses of reinforcing swell.
Today's S/SW swell is expected to ease back to a low point tomorrow morning, coming in at 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Our new SW groundswell for the afternoon is on track, generated by a polar fetch of W/NW winds yesterday.
A kick to 2ft to occasionally 3ft is due on the Surf Coast magnets into the afternoon, 4ft+ to the east on the sets and winds should be moderate to fresh from the N/NE, tending NE into the afternoon.
This swell is then expected to ease through Sunday from 2ft+ and 3-4ft respectively but with strong N/NE winds (not ideal), easing off later in the day.
Moving into next week and Monday will be average with a low point in swell through the morning, maybe 1-2ft on the Surf Coast along with a morning W/NW breeze, SW into the afternoon.
Our moderate to large, long-period SW groundswell for Tuesday is still on track, with a deep and intense polar low forecast to form east of Heard Island this evening.
We'll see a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds projected through our south-western swell window as the low expands, weakening rapidly from Sunday but still projecting a cold front off its northern arm towards us Sunday. This will generate an additional weak W/SW swell to the mix Tuesday.
Looking at the arrival time and we should see the swell building through Tuesday from late morning, peaking later in the day and easing Wednesday. The easing trend will be slowed by trailing healthy frontal activity under the country early next week.
Coming back to Tuesday and the morning looks slow and to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 5ft+ to the east, with the new groundswell building to an inconsistent 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets late afternoon, 6-8ft to the east.
Winds look favourable through the morning and offshore out of the NW ahead of SE sea breezes. Come Wednesday morning, light N/NE offshores are due with easing sets from 4ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east and afternoon SE sea breezes.
The surf shouldn't drop below 3-4ft and 6ft respectively into the afternoon, with a reinforcing W/SW groundswell due to arrive, produce by a great fetch of W'ly gales moving in behind the strong low Sunday, breaking down Monday.
Behind this a weak front should keep Friday up around 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east, dropping Friday.
Locally winds on Thursday look less than ideal and more out of the E, more offshore from the N/NE Friday. We'll run over this again on Monday and any changes to the reinforcing pulses of swell. Have a great weekend!