Moderate swells and favourable winds
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 27th March)
Best Days: Exposed beaches tomorrow, less so Sunday with the wind, Tuesday morning, Wednesday morning, Friday morning
Recap
Plenty of swell on the coast yesterday with a new SW groundswell, easing through the day with early average to poor conditions with a fresh onshore wind, improving into the afternoon as winds eased.
Today conditions have started to improve with offshore winds kicking in across all locations, a bit morning sick and lumpy early, straightening up and improving as you read along with the incoming tide.
Winds will shift south-east this afternoon, creating bumpy conditions.
This weekend and next week (Mar 28 – Apr 3)
Moving into the weekend and we've got good conditions for the beaches tomorrow, a bit blowy and windy into Sunday along with fun pulses of reinforcing swell.
Today's S/SW swell is expected to ease back to a low point tomorrow morning, coming in at 2ft on the Surf Coast and 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Our new SW groundswell for the afternoon is on track, generated by a polar fetch of W/NW winds yesterday.
A kick to 2ft to occasionally 3ft is due on the Surf Coast magnets into the afternoon, 4ft+ to the east on the sets and winds should be moderate to fresh from the N/NE, tending NE into the afternoon.
This swell is then expected to ease through Sunday from 2ft+ and 3-4ft respectively but with strong N/NE winds (not ideal), easing off later in the day.
Moving into next week and Monday will be average with a low point in swell through the morning, maybe 1-2ft on the Surf Coast along with a morning W/NW breeze, SW into the afternoon.
Our moderate to large, long-period SW groundswell for Tuesday is still on track, with a deep and intense polar low forecast to form east of Heard Island this evening.
We'll see a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds projected through our south-western swell window as the low expands, weakening rapidly from Sunday but still projecting a cold front off its northern arm towards us Sunday. This will generate an additional weak W/SW swell to the mix Tuesday.
Looking at the arrival time and we should see the swell building through Tuesday from late morning, peaking later in the day and easing Wednesday. The easing trend will be slowed by trailing healthy frontal activity under the country early next week.
Coming back to Tuesday and the morning looks slow and to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast, 5ft+ to the east, with the new groundswell building to an inconsistent 4-5ft on the Surf Coast magnets late afternoon, 6-8ft to the east.
Winds look favourable through the morning and offshore out of the NW ahead of SE sea breezes. Come Wednesday morning, light N/NE offshores are due with easing sets from 4ft on the Surf Coast, 6ft+ to the east and afternoon SE sea breezes.
The surf shouldn't drop below 3-4ft and 6ft respectively into the afternoon, with a reinforcing W/SW groundswell due to arrive, produce by a great fetch of W'ly gales moving in behind the strong low Sunday, breaking down Monday.
Behind this a weak front should keep Friday up around 3ft to occasionally 4ft on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft to the east, dropping Friday.
Locally winds on Thursday look less than ideal and more out of the E, more offshore from the N/NE Friday. We'll run over this again on Monday and any changes to the reinforcing pulses of swell. Have a great weekend!
Comments
Every other media platform encouraging people to stay home yet Swellnet still encouraging people to travel to surf. Maybe not directly, but still making people want to travel to beaches in already fragile and overwhelmed communities. Stage 3 shutdown in Vic possibly today. Maybe a responsible disclaimer.....HERE IS WHAT YOU WILL BE MISSING......
Yeah... This is all pretty shit eh. I was planning on heading out this morning and ended up not even getting out of my car. With most people either working from home or not at all at the moment, it seems everyone has decided to go surfing. All car parks along thirteenth beach were pretty much full at about 8:30 with dudes hanging in groups on the decks overlooking the water. How people think they can maintain distancing in full car parks is beyond me. Most disappointing... Might check again at lunchtime to see if it's any less hectic. I doubt it will be though. I suspect that our beaches will be closed in the coming days, if not today to stop this behaviour. Either that or they need to make a ruling that you can only go to beaches if you live in the same postcode. That should thin things out a bit, but I reckon they'll just go for full closure.
Yeh it’ll be postcode or by council I reckon. Reasonably easy to enforce with strategic roadblocks checking IDs but I’m sure the police have better things to do. With official school hols + Easter coming up it’s going to be a complete shitshow if not. Melbournites can’t use the old BuT ThEy ReLy oN oUr ToUriST $$$ with everything closed this time either
You've never travelled to go for a surf have you ! never get in a car to find a wave. You can walk to 13th ?
Good to know that next time regional Victoria tells Melbourne folk to holiday there and spend some money we can just tell you all to go fuck yourselves.
Regional Victoria might ask.
Coastal Victoria wont.
Coastal Victoria begs for Melbourne money as much as the rest.
Fine stay away and we will sea who is right
Cool Pat, at least if you can fuck off, other fucks are still gonna come and we get best of both worlds. Whats 'your' money done down here? Transformed Sorra into what wassss a coastal town is now just stores for you fuckwits when ya down. Apartments in Main Street scarcely populated even in Summer. Worked before and could work now
I think we both need to understand that Melbourne money is worth more than the Australian Dollar.
Im still trying to get my head around it.
Classic!
You need to tell all your hotel owners and air bnb hosts and cafes and pubs and surf schools to quit begging for tourists first. Once you’ve convinced them and all their staff to return to your coastal town nirvana then get back to me. But until you do that stop fucken complaining about outsiders turning up when every single business in your town keeps begging for outsiders to turn up and spend money.
Bold call mate, our town has shut down pub, milk bar and take away place. (Small town) and i have personaly checked in with them to sea how they are going and all understand the situation Sorry caravan park to. air bnb i dont give a fuck about.
Oh yeh my business died monday to and i dont care if you dont come down my way in the future, i know we will get by without you and your attitude
Mate genuinely sorry for your business. I’m not here to have a pissing contest about who’s suffering more at the moment, plenty of us are. Even in Melbourne.
My point is that I spent money down the surf coast on Wednesday cause I love the area and I love the joints I stopped at so I bought lunch and a coffee on my way through. Not much at all, twenty bucks at the most, so I’m not looking for a medal, but I know they’ll be struggling so that’s why I stopped.
But it shits me when I see comments about Melbourne people not being welcome, without any consideration for other people in their community, just because a few people think they can live like William Finnegan in Maui ‘68.
Anyway, genuinely sorry for your business. I know how it feels.
I appreciate your concern mate im going to let this go.
I will just ask you to read your post and move past the $ impact, please sea where my current concerns are and the impact of those with your view can do in the short term
Good luck
Mate just to clarify my comments were a direct response to the ‘$$$’ part of Geek’s post. It was directly related to that. Just cause I don’t live down there doesn’t mean I don’t love the place or care about the people and businesses I know personally there.
Sorry I pissed you off, really didn’t mean that.
Good luck to you, too. Hope things pick up and you get a few.
Love the place, don’t be a dick and I welcome you with open arms. We just hear the tourist $$$ justification every year from the shit cunts who come down here with their jetskis, litter, traffic and straight up entitled behaviour. It’s just a tough time down here mate (just like the rest of Aus) and we have enough to deal without aspen skiers ‘quarantining’ themselves at their multimillion dollar holiday homes
That’s the problem dickhead, people stop.
I’m with Nick on this one.....
That would be unreal!
Just read that Waverly council that covers Bondi (Bondi Beach) has currently more COvid19 cases than any other government area!!
Thank you team SNET. Keep up the good work...
Seeing that the Bellarine and Mornington Peninsulas both have more Covid-19 cases than my local council's area I think I will stay at home.
Where I live there are actually lots of people in masks and wearing gloves and most practicing social distancing properly.
No way the superhero locals along the coast are taking such measures.
So, for the safety of my community I'm better off staying right here.
If I was to go for a surf who knows what I might bring home with me.
No cases on the Bellarine ATM...lets keep it that way
Thanks for staying home
Sparx
Waarisymbol. Your comment makes me think deeply about skipping surfing for a while too. I don't want to be a part of the problem at all.
Yep superhero locals are doing the same. I'm so super I went to see my mum in hospital yesterday after a fall she had at her nursing home in Rosebud. Only a broken arm, shes tough! The doctor informed me I had my mask on upside down and back the front. You live and learn. Thanks for staying home
"Only a broken arm"...friggin hell.
They sure did build them tougher back then.
Hope she mends quickly.
Cheers mate.
"You cannot go to the beach." Dan Andrews 3.20pm Friday 27
https://mobile.twitter.com/9NewsMelb/status/1243393741324341248 Yep, beaches closed by tomorrow morning I reckon
fwits!
Well, that might be it for a while. Got to watch my son taking 4ft drops yesterday in rights with the setting sun flowing in jagged gold along the shoulders of the onshore peaks, he made the pitching ones into beautiful smooth bottom turns then top turned near where I was paddling back out, and off he flowed down the line, cutting back and setting up highlines or hits. The set waves loomed up and darkened as their faces bowled out, again a feature of the light, projecting more punch than the size might have you believe. I hit my foot on my fins coming down on the last wave ,and that's nicely bruised now, so I'm out for a little bit. A nice way to go out, if it's all ceased tomorrow.
Any TQ locals noticed the council has put up a dirt barrier at the east end of town on the esplanade - half dirt and half a swinging gate? This might shut out all the people camped in the nudie beach carpark.
.
WA to lock down by region. We are getting closer boys!
Aaron (after hours support)
The Shire maintained boat ramps, beaches, public open parks, trails and reserves remain open.
Current State Government guidance is for everyone to follow physical social distancing at all times. This guidance can be found here
Any concerns regarding congregations of people must be directed to the dedicated hotline for breaches. See here for more information. To report breaches please call 1800 675 398 and select option 4. The general Victoria Police number can also be used at 131 444
More information can also be found on our website's Coronavirus page.
The public are encouraged to check the State Government guidance regularly for any changes.
This does not mean go to rippamatter you Muppets if the car park is full at rippamatter it will be all over the news and they will shut the beaches. Be smart stay at home or surf you secret spot. Yeeeeeew
Here I was thinking that slipping into the water at Juc for a 2 hour solitary session wasn’t going to disrupt anything..
A lot of passion here, looks like I‘ll stay in Melbourne and work on the HCB intake. Cheers Swellnet, thanks for the update and being responsible.
Hahaha
And don’t come back kook!
Jks jks
At last Swellnet does the right thing. Bout time but thank you! As a MP local I will not be surfing either. We are a tribe folks and we have got this. See you all on the other side.
Every car park on the southern MP packed by 7:30, water full of surfers scratching for 3ft low tide close outs, full Audis 4wds doing the carpark hop. We are doomed :(
Yup. Cheers
Politely asking geek. What’s the type of car got to do with it ?
And if we’re all doomed what the hell are you doing there?
Cmon fellas let’s not turn on each other.
Keep up the forecasts Swellnet. Keep me sane.
I love surfing and all that goes with it..
Saw a couple of them full with loaded roof racks and it stuck with me. I never said I was against surfing but from what I saw this morning I am now. Regional lockouts needed ASAP
https://mobile.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/victoria-police-fines-for-brea...
One of the most interesting things about this virus are the hotspot locations in Australia. They very much are around affluent beach side suburbs such as Bondi, Sydney's northern beaches, Mornington Peninsula, Stonnington etc.
I see four key reasons for this. 1. They are generally areas of high population density. 2 They have good medical infrastructure for testing. 3. They are filled with highly mobile residents who travel more than the rest of the population. 4. These areas have more than their fare share of entitled fuckwits who think they rules don't apply to them. Am I wrong?
https://www.mornpen.vic.gov.au/About-Us/News-Media-Publications/News-Med... and there we go!
Rye back beach right now.
Ya fucken couldn’t dream this shit up
Similar scenes down at portsea. Totally fucked
LOL
Can you change the of to have for us please GF?
not my artwork sorry ld
Haha, learnt that one after many lectures from Ben.
should of listened to Ben the first time :p
Just had a look at cams. Both Manly and Curl Curl look busy with surfers...
Bass Coast Shire chief executive Ali Wastie announced that area's beaches were closed, but people were still allowed to people to surf, swim, run or walk as long as they did not congregate in groups.
Shed 9 is there of course. One facebook post he's announcing to the world that he's closing his doors and leading the way in being pro-active, looking for sympathy, next facebook announcement he's open again with a "still open "mega sale" happening. pretty deluded if you ask me
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-28/victoria-police-fines-for-breakin...
Mornington beaches closed.
Quick drive (air on interior recirc) past SC town, for how joy the day is the numbers are down a bit - maybe 30 to 50%. That means all normal carparks taken, but no complete overflow into grassed areas. LOTS of people walking, in family groups (2 often eg dad and daughter) but people seem to have got the message - a few of them at least. Well done to those who stayed at home, thank you. So lots walking along the beach too, but spread out, distanced. Cafes are shut and only some of them doing take-away.
In the water, the point has its (now) usual crew of learners, maybe down a little on what it would be. However, distance in water close, distance in carpark can be closer.
Families were taking little ones for a wave on the inside, generally keeping to their own groups, but it's dynamic and others can glide past really close. I looked in vain for local cars I know which frequent the carpark - couldn't see any, maybe locals have their heads down or are elsewhere. 13th should have been overflowing, wonder if it was...
There's enough day visitors not getting the message to ensure an unwitting infection of a local in the surf carpark, who goes and gives it to gran, who takes it back to the nursing home...
Probably one of the busiest days seen down here
Ditto on the other side of the Heads...freakin insane!!
Had a real Armageddon feel about it today...snuck out way before the tide with my young bloke to get a few under the belt before the inevitable. The good banks were a heaving mass of humanity and as the tide came in the reefs were chockas.
Just to put some perspective on this...the premier reef in town is a short intense little left hand slab...the take off spot is...and I kid you not, about the the size of a king sized bed...somewhere about two metres across by three deep. Without a word of lie...at one point eighteen people on the peak jockeying for position...total shit show
We happily surfed a B grade bank about a half K from the action largely by ourselves or with a couple of the local crew.
What was particularly freaky was the Police chopper doing the low and slow...three passes in all...totally eyeballing us. Then the Westpac rescue chopper does numerous passes with a guy hanging out the door taking video footage...obviously checking crowd density on beach and water.
Were fucked...hammer is about to drop
Meanwhile in the main street the whole look at me look at me coffee culture continues as the IGA shelves are stripped and the holiday houses reach bursting point.
Thanks a lot
Cheers
Sparx
A left on the West Coast. I think I gotcha. But yeah, any street, avenue, road, crescent, esplanade and /or way had beyond max capacity. All days/pandemic..
Seriously, it's like a pack of complete cunts saw the carnage in Italy, where over a thousand people died overnight, and came up with a plan to try and get Australia to that situation as fast as possible.
Just showed Addis on the news, chockers....seems like locals not doing right thing either.
This is true, my neighbour had a significant after works drinks session the other day, but the risks are much higher when Melbourne crew behave irresponsibly down here.
There's plenty of evidence to suggest the hotspots in Melbourne's leafy suburbs and on the Mornington Peninsula have been supercharged due to the arsehole behaviour of the Aspen set.
The thing that shits me the most is people are either too stupid to see the approaching shitstorm, or too selfish to care, or both.
We have just entered phase 2 of this crisis where medical professionals are starting to go down with C-19. These people are fucking heroes, being put in impossible situations by deadshits.
I'm going to put it out there mate some off the surfcoast crew are some of the dead set biggest dickfolps society has ever produced. So even Stevens keyboard warrior.
Hahahah Vic Local you fit into this category you fonk
Yes agree Vic Local.
It's only going to get worse the closer we get to Easter (people bathing and hanging around in groups on lookouts). Would not surprise me if today was last drinks. There were 50 people bathing on the beach I surfed late morning/midday today.
Surfcoast Shire closed all their beaches today. I can see some really aggressive localism coming soon.
Just imagine a local bloke (with his dear old mum undergoing chemo) having a quiet surf and a carload of Melbourne guys paddle out and start coughing and sneezing in the lineup. Can you understand why the local bloke would be furious?
Everyone in Melbourne will be welcoming sick people with open arms from around the state to some of the best hospitals the world can offer in commig weeks. If you want to get all local so be it good luck. Like I said SC had some of the most pigheaded biggest dick flops society has produced.
There's nasty people everywhere mate. But even the "most pigheaded biggest dick flops society has produced" who live on the surf coast aren't going kill anyone if they self isolate. The people from C19 hotspots who ignore the warnings, and still taking holidays are the ones who put bodies in the morgue. It may not be the same as stabbing someone to death, but people still end up six feet under.
Easy fix, local bloke and Melb guys all stay home for the time being and everyone is safe.
It's not that difficult to grasp.
Hard to take but it really is the only answer.
Can do, but cant survive without his money.
Everyone should be staying home unless absolutely necessary.
So your local bloke with his Mum with cancer has to take responsibility and limit any possible interaction with others, thus shouldn’t be surfing. And sadly, shouldn’t be visiting his Mum if she’s particularly vulnerable.
No one should be surfing local or not.
And your 50k time trial could easily see you ending up in hospital taking up valuable bed space. It’s more high risk than surfing.
And to continue to blame this on Melbourne “CUNTS” as you do is schoolyard stuff, just like Trump blaming China.
It’s now a global problem, the virus is likely already in your community, maybe brought back from the city unwittingly by one of your mates.
Kiwi PM Jacinda Arden urged everyone to act like you have Covid-19, its a good way of putting it.
I’ll not be surfing until this blows over, how ever long that may be.
...and this is why we won't be able to have nice things.
Edit: VL's comment, well done SC Shire.
In answer to your question vl it has to be selfishness now, after all the warnings and publicity about what we should be doing no one could possibly use stupidity as an excuse.
Its a perfect storm sadly. No other outlets for the masses of dipshits to keep them amused. No footy, no races, no casino. Seems like the beach has become the go to destination and thanks to these fuckwits we're fast losing that as an option.
Further down the road yesterday an isolated, not-so-secret spot was overflowing with double the amount of cars that are normally there, plus an adjacent almost never used carpark was almost to the point that no one could get in or out. Drove on and found a quieter spot that got to about 12 over a pretty wide left and right bank. Plenty of space apart from a bloke who popped up underneath me when we were dodging a closeout set.
I see it as a medical emergency, quite simply, isolate to stop the spread of a pandemic. That means isolating, stopping travel with all it's infection risk, and locking down areas of high infection.
If we (all of us together) stop it it will remain a medical emergency, if we don't it's a medical catastrophe.
Look on the bright side everyone!
The rest of the planet (other than us deadshit ecologically destructive humans) are benefiting greatly from this situation. Cleaner air and water already around the world for starters.
As has been documented everywhere, most humans are too stupid/selfish to alter their behaviour even when they are provided with real information to slow/stop the pandemic.
Hold on tight people cause all the bad shit we do has finally come home to roost.
Surfed solo twice today no complaints from me
Local or not. Stay home.
The sooner we all do that, the sooner this will be over.
I felt terribly conflicted today, to the point my mental health was affected. On the one hand, I wanted to walk down to my local and wash off the stress with a paddle/swim, even if it didn't result in any waves caught. Just go in the water. On the other hand, this shit is serious and if everyone keeps heading down, we're not keeping it under control.
Anything less than 80% practicing social/physical distancing [1] and we lose control of the virus and the hospitals will be overrun. And that 20% who aren't practicing are our essential workers who are keeping hospitals and supermarkets and alike open. If you don't need to be out in public.. don't be out in public. FULL STOP.
I didn't go, and I'm putting the boards away for a while. I don't want to be responsible for helping spread COVID-19 and taking away someone's loved ones, or my own. The waves will still be there after COVID-19. I'd like as many other Australians to be as well.
[1] https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-25/coronavirus-covid-19-modelling-st...
You are not alone. I am also suffering anxiety for not surfing but decided to stay at home for as along as it takes to overcome this situation.
And upset when in forums some people take stupid conflicts to see who is entitled to do or not to do what they want. We all must be following the rules.
My entire family is in Spain and I already lost a relative and by the last news I have from them will not be the last one.
Hope Australians awake and realise soon how serious this shit is.
See you in the ocean when all this is over. #stayathome
I just wanted to say that I felt the same way...really conflicted. I understand your anxiety. Ultimately though, like you, I made the decision to stay home. That decision was not based on the current restrictions in place, which are confusing. It was based on a wider responsibility we all have, irrespective of how close to the beach we live, to limit the spread of this virus by staying home. Our resolve to do the right thing also depends on the commitment that everyone else makes to isolation. I took a look at the cams this morning to find that despite rumoured beach closures on the MP, people were still in the water at Rye and Flinders. Consequently, I'm hoping we go to full lockdown asap, with tough criminal consequences for breach. I'm also hoping that surf sites remove some of the temptation to continue surfing by ceasing all reporting, and shutting down cams. I know there are probably major financial issues with that, but they can still offer other content. Stay home, stay safe.
I just wanted to say that I felt the same way...really conflicted. I understand your anxiety. Ultimately though, like you, I made the decision to stay home. That decision was not based on the current restrictions in place, which are confusing. It was based on a wider responsibility we all have, irrespective of how close to the beach we live, to limit the spread of this virus by staying home. Our resolve to do the right thing also depends on the commitment that everyone else makes to isolation. I took a look at the cams this morning to find that despite rumoured beach closures on the MP, people were still in the water at Rye and Flinders. Consequently, I'm hoping we go to full lockdown asap, with tough criminal consequences for breach. I'm also hoping that surf sites remove some of the temptation to continue surfing by ceasing all reporting, and shutting down cams. I know there are probably major financial issues with that, but they can still offer other content. Stay home, stay safe.
need a virus that causes 75% of people to become infertile,overcrowded surf problem fixed, enviromental destruction fixed.
Irony: noun
Def: when a large bunch of people, no matter the location of their homes, congregate at heavily-populated surf locales during a period of recommended ‘stay at home’ and then take to the internets afterwards to complain about everyone else not playing by the rules of ‘stay at home’
Remember y’all; Gary is a lover not a fighter. It’s irrelevant where your house is, if you must go out, and see other people, keep a wide fucking berth! Plenty of room for all of us to enjoy the mental health benefits of this beautiful coastline whole abiding by the distancing recommendations if we all think about our actions a little and work together.
stay home. that means stay home, it doesn’t mean go for a surf. doesn’t matter where you live - stay the fuck home. can’t believe people who are going for a surf are genuinely stupid enough to actually whinge about people going for a surf. no wonder we are fucked
garyg - much as i enjoy and admire your work, your signature is not social-distancing-compliant
Gary appreciates your and the community’s concern, Ojacko, and would like to assure you that Gary is social distancing by only operating in two modes at the moment:
- Webcam
- Watching from a distance, never seen
Yes Gary Yes! Keep givin it to us. Sounds like we all need some Gary right now.
But Can’t help but feel sorry for your better half or halfs locked in isolation with you right now.
you’re a good man garyg. if hard-licking creatine kisses being delivered only by webcam is not enough to demonstrate the gravity of the situation, who knows what is
There's a bit of an element of locals using this as an opportunity for the waves all to themselves. Not all mind you, definitely not all, but some. You can't go out for a surf and then come on here and bitch that people are out surfing without coming across as the world's biggest hypocrite. When the waves start to pump, and make no mistake at some stage soon they will, it's gonna get ugly out there in the surf and the car parks. Localism on steroids. I'm staying out of it as much for the virus as I am for the poor behaviour I'm tipping will come in the next few weeks, don't need that stress in my life right now.
And to add to the angst. Looks like good waves for weeks...
Never thought I’d almost want a few weeks of south easterlies...
People in the water on the cams on the Peninsula right now at Gunna and Flinders.
people receiving fines for checking the surf at addis today
What are they getting fines for? Surfcoast Shire still allows surfing, swimming, running & walking - going by their communications.
Are they going through road closures? Not social distancing?
Or just hanging out talking shite in the car park?
turns out they went through the road closure
Sickest weekend of waves...cough cough
Watching/following this with interest. Very hard to police who has the right to go in the water/who doesn't. The only fair answer is no one. One possible solution may be to let people swim without 'surf craft' as they won't be frothing for a peak but will still get some 'aqua therapy', and close the surf car park areas to minimise the crowd.