Great to excellent run over the coming days
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 26th February)
Best Days: Protected spots tomorrow, Friday, Saturday morning, Sunday morning
Good conditions across all locations yesterday morning with a drop in size from Monday's strong kick in groundswell and with variable winds. The Surf Coast eased from 3-4ft, with 4-5ft sets to the east.
This morning the low point in swell wasn't really seen with new energy boosting the Surf Coast back to 3-4ft already along with great conditions and larger bumpier waves to the east.
A strong south-west change has now moved through, creating poor conditions and we'll see a further increase in groundswell and windswell this afternoon reaching a more consistent 4ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east.
This week and weekend (Feb 27 – Mar 1)
Looking at the coming few days and there's plenty more great and quality surf to come, pumping at times.
This afternoon's mix of SW groundswell and windswell are expected to ease a touch into tomorrow, though sets should still come in around 4ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 6ft to the east.
The swell may ease a touch through the day and then start kicking later with some new mid-period energy and winds look favourable all day for protected spots, moderate to fresh from the NW in the morning, swinging W/NW through the day and W into the afternoon.
We then look to the large long-period SW groundswell event due into Friday. The source of this swell will be a strong and tight polar low that formed south-east of the Heard Island region yesterday and is now tracking east, generating a fetch of severe-gale W/SW winds along the polar shelf.
We'll see this low project north-east towards Tassie today and tomorrow morning while broadening in scope and moving on top of the active sea state generated by the fronts before it, producing a large, consistent SW groundswell.
The low is then due to pass across Tassie Thursday evening, with the groundswell now due to be large by Friday morning, peaking through the middle of the day/afternoon.
Size wise, the Surf Coast should see 6ft+ surf (odd 8ft cleanup) through the day on the magnets, 8ft+ to the east and conditions look favourable for protected spots with a morning W/NW breeze west of Melbourne, W/SW to the east, shifting SW late morning and S/SW into the afternoon.
Saturday looks excellent again for protected spots with a morning W/NW breeze and easing sets from 4-5ft+ on the Surf Coast, 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east. S/SE sea breezes are due into the afternoon on the Surf Coast, S/SW to the east.
We've now got an upgrade in a reinforcing S/SW groundswell due into Sunday, with a trailing polar front to strengthen rapidly south-west of Tasmania during Friday, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force winds in our southern swell window.
A secondary large, long-period S/SW groundswell is due from this storm, filling in Sunday and kicking the Surf Coast back to 4-6ft on the swell magnets, 6ft to possibly 8ft to the east. Conditions look best for the Surf Coast again with a light NW offshore, more variable to the east ahead of a shallow S/SW change.
The change will be linked to a trough and then high moving in early next week bringing average S/SE winds as the S/SW groundswell eases.
So all in all the coming period is looking great to excellent at times for experienced surfers.