Poor surf continues, with one OK window
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Wednesday 12th February)
Best Days: Exposed beaches Friday
Clean conditions across the Surf Coast yesterday morning and even OK to the east with a small mix of inconsistent W/SW groundswell and fading SE windswell, 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 2-3ft to the east.
Today conditions are poor across all coasts with onshore winds and a small, weak windswell.
This week and next (Feb 13 – 21)
More poor surf will be seen tomorrow with no new groundswell and moderate to fresh E/SE tending stronger SE winds, kicking up a building SE windswell across most locations through the day.
Our window of cleaner conditions on Friday is still on track with a light morning E/NE-NE breeze due across most locations, possibly variable on the Surf Coast along with a mix of easing SE windswell and background long-period groundswell on the Mornington Peninsula.
Size wise, easing SE windswell waves are due to 1-2ft on the Surf Coast with the groundswell coming in around a similar size, with the Mornington Peninsula offering very infrequent 3-4ft sets. Be patient and you should have fun. We still may see winds hold out of the E/NE most of the day, otherwise S'ly sea breezes will kick in. The models still diverge on this unfortunately.
There's been no improvement to the weekend outlook with a surface trough moving in from the west Friday evening due to bring fresh to strong onshore S/SW winds along with the easing groundswell from Friday. A weak windswell will build and then winds are due to do an 180 switch and blow E/SE into Sunday.
The timing of this switch is still up for grabs with EC showing it occurring at dawn Sunday, while GFS has it into the late afternoon and evening. Either way the surf will remain very poor.
The E/SE winds will continue into Monday kicking up some new SE windswell for the Surf Coast, easing Tuesday as winds relax but winds remain onshore out of the SE.
Our new W/SW groundswell for Wednesday is still on track, with a strong frontal progression forecast to develop around the Heard Island region, projecting a fetch of W/SW gales up towards Western Australia, weakening directly south-west of the state.
This will result in a loss in size and consistency, but the swell should offer some fun sized sets across the exposed beaches, building Wednesday and reaching 4-5ft+, smaller and to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast. The only issue are the local winds, as per usual and they look SE for the most part, possibly weaker through the morning and then likely more favourable Thursday as the swell eases, but we'll have a closer look at this on Friday.