Craig

Lots of quality opportunities to surf this period

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th January)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday morning, Tuesday and Wednesday mornings on the Surf Coast, exposed beaches Thursday and early Friday

Recap

Tiny conditions across most locations yesterday morning, but a new W/SW swell started to kick into the afternoon, offering OK waves in protected spots out of the strong W'ly breeze on the Surf Coast late afternoon and evening.

Today stronger levels of mid-period and W/SW groundswell are filling in with 3ft waves on the Surf Coast this morning, 4-6ft to the east. Conditions were great west of Melbourne and workable to the east, just a bit bumpy.

We should see the groundswell component of the swells filling in through the day, peaking this afternoon to 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and a more consistent 6ft to the east as winds shift more W/NW, holding until later afternoon with possible weak sea breezes but if we're lucky, a LAGO.

This weekend and next week (Jan 25 – 31)

Today's mix of swells will ease back through the weekend after this afternoon's peak, with dropping surf from the 3ft range on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft+ to the east.

Winds are looking favourable for most locations early tomorrow morning with a NW offshore on the Surf Coast and N/NW winds at dawn to the east of Melbourne (even N/NE across Phillip Island) shifting NW quickly after before giving into sea breezes from the S/SE. There's likely to be a period of variable winds east of Melbourne as well ahead of the sea breeze.

Early Sunday looks smaller and weaker, but a new SW groundswell should arrive into the afternoon, peaking Monday. Winds on Sunday morning look best for the Surf Coast with a light NW offshore, a little dicey but variable onshore to the east, creating workable conditions. There's likely to be that window of variable winds again mid-afternoon ahead of sea breezes.

Size wise the Surf Coast looks to be back to 2ft, 3-4ft on the Mornington Peninsula, but the new SW groundswell should kick to 3ft+ and 4-5ft respectively later in the afternoon, discussed further below.

Sunday afternoon's groundswell is currently being generated by a strengthening and broadening polar low that's sitting south of WA.

A slow moving fetch of W/SW gales will be projected through our south-western swell window today, broadening in scope tomorrow while weakening temporarily ahead of a secondary fetch of W/SW gales projecting on top the active sea state tomorrow evening and Sunday morning.

What should result is a moderate + sized and prolonged SW groundswell event from later Sunday through Tuesday, easing slowly and dropping in period and energy from Wednesday.

The Surf Coast should see fun and consistent 3-4ft surf Monday, 6ft to the east, with Tuesday offering bigger 5ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, near 8ft'ers on the Mornington Peninsula.

Easing surf from 3ft+ is expected on Wednesday across the Surf Coast, 5ft to or so to the east, small into Thursday and bottoming out Friday.

Coming back to the local winds and Monday looks great for most regions with local offshore winds early (NW Surf Coast, N/NE-NE Mornington Peninsula and PI) though a trough moving in from the west looks to bring a change later morning, freshening through the afternoon out of the S/SW.

A light morning W/NW breeze is likely Tuesday morning ahead of S/SE sea breezes, similar Wednesday as the swell eases. The exposed beaches will then be the go later week with morning N/NE offshores as the swell fades. Have a great weekend and make the most of the coming surf days!

Comments

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 12:11pm

Not one North East day in the 16 day forecast.
I’ll tell ya what I’m nearly ready to hang the wetty up for good.
Almost done

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 12:29pm

:O

A direct insult to the great Craigos

"Coming back to the local winds and Monday looks great for most regions with local offshore winds early (NW Surf Coast, N/NE-NE Mornington Peninsula and PI)"

"The exposed beaches will then be the go later week with morning N/NE offshores as the swell fades. "

You favour the machine over the man!?

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 12:34pm

Obviously you choose the blue pill when Ben 'Morpheus' Matson offered you the choice. To live in a reality manufacted by machines...

I am the bone

dylred's picture
dylred's picture
dylred commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 1:19pm

Any chance of a morning offshore past otway on monday?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 1:21pm

Not great, winds look NW early then shifting quickly W/NW.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 1:22pm

That could change though as overnight winds will be more favourable, just depends on the speed of the trough moving in.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 1:33pm

Bone, it takes time to read the forecast notes and time is money.
I had a quick squiz whilst in the job site shitter

Sorry Craigos, I’ll read notes after work over a cold frothy this arvo.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 1:36pm

Yeah do it, there are windows ;)

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 1:39pm

Respect

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 1:47pm

I kid, I kid. Sometimes I just like to speak absolute dribble

I am the bone

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 2:09pm

Haha

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 3:18pm

So glad you used 'LAGO', it's one of the best terms!

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 3:27pm

YOLO!

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 4:37pm

This morning meh, this arvo yeh.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 4:56pm

Noice!

Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a long board's picture
Mr.Tee on a lon... commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 7:13pm

It has been flat or crapola all week. It was good get wet and catch a few waves today at Westernport here in Vic. .

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 9:03pm

Arvo was smoking, that was a lot of fun for the wind and size. Surfing till later in summer, so nice.

ringmaster's picture
ringmaster's picture
ringmaster commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 9:54pm

I'm hearing ya VJ.

Dawny this morning, work and then a decent reef surf from about 5 to 7pm with a manageable amount of crew in the water.

Still heaps of daylight and waves left when I got out. Summer can be good like that.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 10:31pm

Stoked, looking at the wind obs, it looked like it LAGO'd? or EGO haha.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 24 Jan 2020 at 10:44pm

Still a bit of the NW ripple across the beachy we were on. The odd wave was cleaner, we got out at about 7. Some waves seemed to come in fatter, some stood up and those were the good ones. got a couple of nice ones.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 27 Jan 2020 at 9:52am

Pumping Craig, an awesome summer morning of excellent surf.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 27 Jan 2020 at 9:59am

Yeow!