Craig

Good to great few days of surf shaping up

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 22nd November)

Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday from late morning, Sunday morning, Monday morning

Recap

Strong, hot and offshore winds with no swell yesterday, giving into a strong afternoon and much cooler change, dropping temperatures by 20 degrees or so.

Today the surf hasn't improved with a small mix of new swells but with average conditions.

This weekend and next week (Nov 23 – 29)

After a couple of poor days of surf, we've got much better conditions and swells due over the coming days.

The initial strongest stages of the frontal progression linked to this swell has already taken place, south-west of WA with a good fetch of W/SW gales produced through our western swell window.

We're now seeing the secondary stages of the progression, with a broad and strong fetch of W/SW winds pushing over the top of the active sea state, south of WA and slowly towards us today, and this evening, slipping slowly east-southeast through tomorrow.

The initial stages of the storm will produce an inconsistent and building W/SW swell for tomorrow, starting from 1-2ft on the Surf Coast and 3-4ft to the east in the morning, but reaching 3ft+ and 6ft respectively into the late afternoon, likely bigger on dark.

Winds will become less favourable as the swell builds though with a morning NW breeze, shifting W/NW later morning ahead of a early-mid afternoon S/SW change.

The most size is due on Sunday with a mix of W/SW and SW swells coming in mostly around 4ft on the Surf Coast (4-5ft swell magnets), 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula (8ft cleanups at magnets) along with a light morning NW offshore (possibly N/NW at times east of Melbourne ahead of S/SE sea breezes.

As touched on in Wednesday's notes, the easing trend will be slowed by a couple of weaker fronts pushing in and under the country on the weekend, dropping from 3ft to possibly 4ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets and the 5ft to occasionally 6ft range to the east.

Winds look favourable for both regions with a locally offshore breeze with a N'ly tendency, giving into S/SE sea breezes again.

Tuesday will become smaller again with average and fresh to strong SW winds in the wake of a trough moving through early morning.

The small pulse of groundswell for Wednesday is still on track, but it looks a bit smaller and very inconsistent. The source of this swell is a tight fetch of W/SW gales east of Heard Island today, with 2ft to possibly 3ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets, 3-4ft+ to the east. A morning W/NW breeze will favour the Surf Coast for keen surfers.

Longer term we should see some new swell developing for Friday and the weekend from a not overly strong, but slow moving and broad polar low forming south of the country mid-week. Winds are still unclear with the models diverging from Friday, but we may see more favourable conditions for the exposed beaches. More on this Monday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 22 Nov 2019 at 11:33am

I see no great

I am the bone

gazzee's picture
gazzee's picture
gazzee commented Saturday, 23 Nov 2019 at 7:30am

Hey Craig ..would you know the average time it took for a wave registering at the cape Sorell buoy to arrive to me say sitting out the back of gunnamatta and is there a huge time difference between swell size and incoming/ outgoing tides and tide heights to get a rough average.. Cheers.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Saturday, 23 Nov 2019 at 8:16pm

Still very ordinary on the sc 8 pm. 2 ft onshore mess.

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 10:13am

Hey Craig,
Considering this mornings(sunday) swell is a bit smaller/weaker than expected will this change your forecast for tomorrow morning as the swell eases?
Cheers

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 11:31am

Where are you?
It was pretty close to what we’ve got here

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 12:00pm

Surf Coast. I surfed Bell's for a few hours from daybreak today in 2- 3 foot swell. A couple of 3-4 bombs were in the mix but very very rare.
Forcaster notes for 4-5 at the magnets today but more like 2-3 foot. Does that mean tomorrow's forecast notes of easing from 3-4 foot will now be less is what I'm asking or will the small follow up swells forcast for tomorrow mean we might get 3-4 foot tomorrow after all? Craig?

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 12:29pm

Some wind effected, solid 4ft A frames for the 13th boardriders atm. The reefs were slow but still fun mid-morning?

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 1:28pm

So last weekend overperformed, so I upped today a little in size, and it comes in under, aghhh. Though WAG reporting solid 4ft which is on expectations. Though Bells/Winki bet easy 3-4ft.

Tomorrow will be a little better direction but should still be 3ft range in the morning.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 1:37pm

About 3 foot. One single wave did come in that was a fair bit bigger, so I caught it.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 2:08pm

Haha, nice work VJ.

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 2:15pm

Hi Craig,
Can you let me know the answers to the following questions: how long does it takes for a swell to travel from Cape Sorell to Winkipop? Who serves better coffees, Swell or Bomboras? What wax should I be using? Given the road works on the Torquay road, is the Anglesea road a faster way to get to Bells from Armstrong Creek? Do I still need to look left when taking off on my minimal at Winki? I'm a strong beginner / intermediate surfer who charges big waves.
Asking for a friend.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 5:28pm

Absolutely classic VL! but you omitted, what thickness wetsuit, is it good for a hyptocrypto or mayhem and should I use speed generating or speed harnessing fins?

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 5:48pm

May as well ask Craig what day of the week is the best time to fill up the petrol tank. The bloke is the suppository of all wisdom and would definitely be in tune with the petrol price cycles.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 6:18pm

hyptocryptos fell like a piece of shit to surf. period.

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 6:16pm

swell for coffee.....bomboras is on tourist service time:)

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 6:38pm

Hard to beat Swell in that neck of the woods.

Bit of swell around on the Bellarine. The bigger sets would have been 5ft with the wedge at the go to spot there. A fair bit smaller in Torquay for the second surf.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 9:03pm

Vic Local's questions should be the captcha challenge to post on Swellnet...

Coffees, you lot will send me on a mission this week, find the best. Last time I did this there were around 70 cafes in the area (!) and I must have had a bad run, gave up and rated Maccas, which had a good staff member and a nice coffee with some consistency. Then spat the dummy and got my own machine which is up there with them.

Now in town, there's a cafe on Shannon Ave near Toyworld, best coffee I've found there

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 9:09pm

I second Swell, great coffee and food!

The green wall's picture
The green wall's picture
The green wall commented Sunday, 24 Nov 2019 at 4:29pm

Cheers Craig! Not picking at your forecasting (you do a great job as always) - just planning work/surf days for the week :)