Craig

Small surf continues ahead of more activity late week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Monday 4th November)

Best Days: Surf Coast tomorrow, more exposed beaches later for keen surfers, Surf Coast Thursday and Friday morning

Recap

The weekend's swell was westerly as expected, but more west than anticipated on the Surf Coast resulting in mostly small to tiny surf on Saturday, slightly better Sunday but still small. I was worried that Saturday might come in over forecast looking at the satellite observations of the low linked to a pulse in new swell, but alas it was mediocre at best.

Exposed beaches faired much better with favourable conditions and fun sized sets, peaking at 3-5ft Sunday morning.

Today winds aren't as favourable for exposed spots, best on the Surf Coast with a continuation of mid-period W/SW swell to 2ft, to sometimes 3ft on the regional swell magnets, a bit bigger to the east and 4ft.

This week and weekend (Nov 5 - 10)

We'll see the mid-period swell energy continuing tomorrow, if not from a slightly better SW direction, though size wise expected similar surf to today. Mostly 2ft to occasionally 3ft waves are due on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 3-4ft+ to the east and with workable winds for both regions.

A morning W/NW breeze will favour the Surf Coast, but variable breezes are due from mid-afternoon, creating improving conditions east of Melbourne from late afternoon for keen surfers.

Wednesday looks like a lay day as the swell eases with strengthening NW tending W/NW winds. There may be a very late increase in W/SW swell from a strong front pushing in out of the west, but more on this below.

Our mix of long-period W/SW groundswell and mid-period W/SW swell from an initial strong low, come mid-latitude front are still on track, but we're looking at a more consolidated system and larger swell now.

The low formed over the weekend, and is generating a tight fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W'ly winds in our far swell window, south-west of WA.

The low is forecast to move slowly east and then east-northeast up towards the Bight over the coming days and then onwards to us.

A fetch of gale-force W/SW winds will continue to be projected towards us, stronger than forecast on Friday with the front pushing across us Wednesday afternoon and evening.

We'll see a mix of W/SW groundswells filling in on Thursday with a peak likely later in the afternoon/evening, easing slowly Friday.

Size wise, the Surf Coast should be around 3-4ft in the morning, kicking further towards 4-5ft through the day, with 6ft surf to the east, building more towards 8ft into the afternoon.

A slow drop in size is then due Friday from 3-5ft and 6-8ft respectively.

Conditions will be favourable all day on the Surf Coast Thursday as a small weak front pushes up behind the main front Wednesday, steering winds to the NW through the morning, W/NW into the afternoon and strong at times. Friday is a little uncertain as the models diverge on the timing of a change morning through but we should see morning W/NW winds, likely onshore from the W/SW into the afternoon.

Following this we're expected to see persistent fronts pushing up and into us for the weekend, but with no major strength. They'll keep moderate amounts of swell hitting the state but with winds from the south-western quadrant. More on this Wednesday.

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Monday, 4 Nov 2019 at 9:22am

Oh golly. It seems quite the dilemma may unfold for us Victorians.

Do we surf in the arvo or watch horses run?

I retreat to my lair for deep contemplation..

I am the bone

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Monday, 4 Nov 2019 at 9:40am

Pumped last Cup Day on the Surf Coast. Big, long period and top notch surface conditions.

conrico's picture
conrico's picture
conrico commented Monday, 4 Nov 2019 at 10:54am

Just a question I’ve always wondered Craig, does much swell pass through the gap between King Island and Tassie and hit the SW facing Vicco beaches near the prom ?? Always hear about swell from king island to cape Otway but rarely the other side of the island..

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 4 Nov 2019 at 11:41am

Generally smaller than the MP and Phillip Island unless it's a real west swell which would get in a bit better around the top of KI. You've also got islands off some of the beaches in the Prom which shield swell even more.

garyg1412's picture
garyg1412's picture
garyg1412 commented Wednesday, 6 Nov 2019 at 10:26am

Conrico the other problem I reckon you have (like the west facing coast of Flinders Island) is you generally have a westerley storm track accompanying any westerley swell but would need easterly winds for it to be offshore in those locations, which I reckon would be very rare. It would have to be blowing it's westerley tits off west of Cape Otway with a different weather system providing easterly winds only about 250 k's up the coast. That's just my layman theory though but I'm sure some secrets would have come out by now if there was perfect surf in these locations.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Tuesday, 5 Nov 2019 at 11:49am

OMG, soooo terrible today, 1-2ft of weak as, inconsistent wind swell wobbling it way across the reefs. It's going to be a long summer if the Southern Ocean keeps this up.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 5 Nov 2019 at 11:54am

All will be forgotten in a few days.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Tuesday, 5 Nov 2019 at 11:56am

Long weekends...

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Tuesday, 5 Nov 2019 at 1:21pm

It was painfully small and weak today. I had a go at one of the exposed reefs and gave up then drove for half an hour in my wettie with the heater cranked (brutally cold this AM) to somewhere more exposed but more wind affected. Bigger and no one around but not great.

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Tuesday, 5 Nov 2019 at 5:38pm

Yeah that 7/8 second swell period was a dead giveaway.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Tuesday, 5 Nov 2019 at 8:41pm

solid 5ft sets in the arvo here

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Wednesday, 6 Nov 2019 at 5:53am

Fun surf for the late with the variable breeze?