Craig

Great weekend, more fun surf next week

Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 1st November)

Best Days: Saturday, Sunday, Monday through Friday next week Surf Coast

Recap

Clean conditions across most locations yesterday with a fresh and hot offshore wind and easing swell from around 2ft on the Surf Coast and the 3ft+ range to the east.

Today the surf is smaller again and clean on the beaches. A new inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due later today as winds hold, so aim for a late session. The swell has hit the Cape du Couedic buoy in South Australia and should arrive through the afternoon, kicking the Surf Coast to 2ft on the swell magnets, 3-4ft to the east.

This weekend and next week (Nov 2 - 8)

This afternoon's increase in inconsistent W/SW groundswell is due to peak tomorrow morning with inconsistent 2ft+ sets on the Surf Coast swell magnets and 3-4ft+ waves to the east. Our stronger pulse of W/SW groundswell due to arrive mid-morning is still on track, with a tight and intense low forming south of WA and producing a short-lived burst of W/SW gales in our swell window yesterday.

This should kick the Surf Coast to 3ft through the morning, 4-5ft on the Mornington Peninsula and winds will be favourable. A dawn N/NE breeze is due to shift N/NW-NW through the morning ahead of a shallow SW change later afternoon. Satellite observations (right) confirmed a tight bunch of storm-force winds around the core of the low, so it's not out of the question that we'll see the odd bigger set across both coasts as the swell peaks through the day.

Saturday's swell will ease into Sunday as some reinforcing mid-period energy fills in, generated by a broad but weak fetch of W/SW winds being aimed through our western swell window north and west of the low.

Surf to 2-3ft is expected on the Surf Coast with 4-5ft sets to the east along with favourable winds again. A dawn N'ly is due on the Mornington Peninsula, N/NW to the west, shifting more W/NW-NW later morning ahead of an early S'ly change around mid-afternoon or so.

Mid-period W/SW swell to 2-3ft on the Surf Coast should continue into Monday, generated by a final front moving in from the west and towards us over the weekend. Winds will only favour the Surf Coast though with a light to moderate W/NW offshore, holding until mid-afternoon ahead of a SW change.

It looks like we'll see the surf starting to ease back from Tuesday from 2-3ft on the Surf Coast swell magnets, 4ft+ to the east as winds persist out of the W/NW, giving into weak sea breezes if not going more variable.

As talked about last update, a stronger mid-latitude storm moving in towards us through early next week is due to generate a better W/SW groundswell for late week.

The initial stages of this storm will be a tight and intense low in the southern Indian Ocean, generating a fetch of severe-gale to storm-force W/SW winds in our far swell window. The low is then expected to weaken and turn into a front while projecting up towards the Bight and then across us Wednesday evening and Thursday.

A long-period and inconsistent W/SW groundswell will be generated by the initial stages, with mid-period W/SW swell from the final stages. The mid-period energy is expected to build Thursday, kicking to 3ft+ through the afternoon on the Surf Coast, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula along with strong NW tending W/NW winds, peaking Friday mixed in with the groundswell. Better surf to the 4ft range is due on the Surf Coast, 6ft to the east along with W/NW tending W/SW winds. We'll go over the timing and sizes again on Monday though. In the meantime enjoy the fun waves over the coming days!

Comments

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 10:23am

Not bad Craigo, not bad.

Wouldn’t a shallow SW change get overriden (how is that not a word) by sea breeze this time of year?

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 11:50am

Looks like you're right for the peninsula region, and Torquay, more SW elsewhere..

5pm tomorrow..

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 12:10pm

You'll be surprised. The mysteries of the Peninsula. Gaz at West Coast, blow up for here then settle back down for the island.

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 12:33pm

Not to mention the wind today yesterday swings round to the NNW. Hopefully it could clean up again like yesterday. Fucking annoying. Never surprising

I am the bone

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 1:01pm

Hopefully the stormy activity gets all exotic tomorrow.

Ill shut up now

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 1:05pm

Ha

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 2:11pm

Lightning predictor on Windy looking funky. Show begins in a couple of hours on the Otways, then moves east.

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 1:38pm

Craig don't know if you can tell me much about Bali for the next couple of weeks? From what I can glean looks lean (poet but I don't.....bad) is that your understanding? Locally Saturday it is going from SE to SW then N to NW then variable all under 10 knots until Sunday arvo it goes dead west with a bit more oomph. I think we have the compass covered except for NE and E.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 1 Nov 2019 at 3:00pm

Yeah not a simple answer to that one, it's one for the Swellnet Traveller..

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 1:47pm

Nice try Memla ha ha

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 7:56am

It Ain’t looking so ‘Great’ yet.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 8:55am

Very small on the Bellarine. Maybe the odd 2ft or 2ft plus bomb set.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 9:33am

13th Beach looked fun earlier, though a little small.

Panman's picture
Panman's picture
Panman commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 10:26am

Not real familiar with viccy but heading down that way for a pilgrimage next week
Wouldn't S/west winds be a bit shit

memlasurf's picture
memlasurf's picture
memlasurf commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 1:38pm

Not bit very.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 6:24pm

depends on where, let your map guide you :)

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 11:09am

Peninsula looking fun with the lower tide.




Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 1:53pm

Bummer. Looks like that groundswell didn’t come? Was worried it could come over forecast. Nope. 

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 2:41pm

It was real weird in the AM after that wind last night, broken up, almost peaky, short period. But there is a little groundswell running now. Back to lines and with a bit of girth to it.

Your probably just shy on the height, 3-solid 3ft :)

I am the bone

dustys's picture
dustys's picture
dustys commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 2:39pm

Nothing on the West coast, except for a pod of dolphins crossing around Torquay Point just now...

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 2:42pm

Yeah seemed too west, well more than expected! Heard reports of solid surf east and west of the Surf Coast. 

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 6:06pm

Lake like around here :(

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 2:43pm

Also a fin sighted at Porto. Heard Kilcunda area has had some decent activity too.

I am the bone

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 4:58pm

Seems to be more sea life around this year than previous years. Seen a few dolphins and the odd seal around the Torquay reefs. Never really seen them before this year. Very different to SA in that regard.

Had a stingray swim under me at 13th this morning. Must have been 5ft across.

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Saturday, 2 Nov 2019 at 6:22pm

Pretty tiny today, beaut rain overnight after the hot days. There has been more sea life I reckon, seen dolphins out the back of TQ and a little stingray too. I like the 'Great Weekend' bit headline, and it's grovel conditions. Two foot sets?? Sorell says.... well that would be giving it away wouldn't it.
Nevertheless I will pack the mini mal again tomorrow
Perhaps it was a great day over in MemlaBoneLand.

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 11:08am

Yeah great was for more exposed beaches.. but with clean options on all coast. Maybe should have been fun..

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 11:55am

All good matey, your normally spot on with your analysis but unfortunately its been way too small to even bother on the reefs. Is this the best of it for the long weekend or will the final front mentioned in the forecast notes atleast provide something small/rideable from a better sw direction?

velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno's picture
velocityjohnno commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 1:33pm

No worries Craig, all good, you guys are usually spot on. I know you look back on the forecast notes, and put pics in to help form a historical view of how weather systems affect each bit of coast, so I'll try to put in what I saw as conditions as well to help.

Today it was a little bigger on the sets. The young one and I surfed ... and surprisingly got some great hollow fast sectioning little lefts, 2ft, maybe a couple 2+ft, some waits, and I'm stunned no one else was on it given how many were spread out in the lineups. Perhaps the ... strategy is pretty smart after all.

Crowds are way up this season.

thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 7:41am

A little bigger this AM? Long waits though.



thermalben's picture
thermalben's picture
thermalben commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 12:46pm

Reasonable size at 13th Beach.

Bnkref's picture
Bnkref's picture
Bnkref commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 3:06pm

MP was a decent size this morning. Reasonably consistent 3-4ft with the odd 5ft set where I was.

geek's picture
geek's picture
geek commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 3:27pm

Pumped for an hour from first light. No one around too

Vic Local's picture
Vic Local's picture
Vic Local commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 5:31pm

MP surfers are basically a lazy bunch who don't like to get up for earlies or walk 200 meters from carparks. I had meetings in Portsea the other week and got two hours of great waves with just one other bloke out until 10am. The place goes off. So too does PI. If I lived in Melbourne that's definitely the area I'd go to surf. Way better than the West Coast.

"angry online, smiley in the brine"

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 6:01pm

lame attempt

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 3:12pm

Thanks guys, good to see the swell up a bit today.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Sunday, 3 Nov 2019 at 4:28pm

it was in last night craigos, was thinking of you when the bigger ones came through ;).

think A.Z had a paddle at the hot spot Friday arvo, much better than what he had Thursday I could imagine haha

I am the bone