Continuation of good Surf Coast waves, very large next week
Victoria Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 24th May)
Best Days: Surf Coast Saturday, Sunday, Tuesday, protected spots for experienced surfers Wednesday and Thursday
Great waves all day across both coasts yesterday with 3ft of new W/SW swell on the Surf Coast and 4-5ft waves to the east with favourable offshore winds.
This morning the swell was similar size and clean again across all locations, but Cape Sorell has risen a little more so we should see a touch more size with 4ft sets on the Surf Coast magnets during the day and 5-6ft+ waves to the east. Winds will strengthen into the afternoon and tend more N/NW on the Mornington Peninsula.
This weekend and next week (May 25 – 31)
A further increase in W/SW groundswell due through today will ease into tomorrow, but slowed by a reinforcing pule of SW groundswell. This was generated on the tail of the slow moving low linked to our current swell and should keep the Surf Coast up around 3-4ft tomorrow morning, 5-6ft on the Mornington Peninsula, if not for the rare bigger cleanup.
Winds will be great for the Surf Coast and out of the NW and fresh, tending W/NW while locations to the east will be bumpy.
Sunday's new W/SW swell has been upgraded a little further from Wednesday with a tight and intense low that's currently moving in from the west expected to maintain its strength while moving closer towards us this evening and then slowly across us tomorrow afternoon and evening.
The Surf Coast magnets should see 3-4ft sets, smaller in more protected spots with the westerly direction, 6ft on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds will continue to favour the Surf Coast, fresh from the NW and strengthening into the afternoon from the W/NW.
The secondary system that was forecast to track too north of our swell window looks to now just stay within our western swell window, with a fetch of strong W/SW winds aimed towards us tomorrow evening, reaching gale-force as the front pushes through Bass Strait on Sunday.
This will will produce an additional increase in size for Monday morning, but mid-period and close-spaced in nature, with it easing in size from 3-5ft on the Surf Coast and 6ft+ to the east. Winds don't look great and still onshore in the wake of Sunday's front with a fresh W/SW breeze across all locations. With the timing of the front the likelihood of an early W'ly around Torquay looks lower than normal.
We then look at the large and powerful SW tending S/SW groundswell event due through the middle of the week, owing to a strong and pronounced node of the Long Wave Trough stalling across the south-east of the country.
On the back of Sunday's front we'll see a significant polar frontal system forming south of the country on Monday with a broad and elongated fetch of severe-gale SW winds being initially projected towards us, before becoming more stretched out and reaching storm-force in our southern swell window on Tuesday. This core storm-force S/SW fetch will slowly project towards us on top an active sea state before the low continues east and out of our swell window on Wednesday.
We'll see a very large, long-period and significant SW tending S/SW groundswell event, building Tuesday from 3-4ft on the Surf Coast and 5-6ft to the east, to an easy 6ft later in the day on the Surf Coast and 8ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.
The most size will be seen on Wednesday and likely into the afternoon with sets pushing to an easy 10ft (if not bigger) off the Surf Coast magnets and 12ft+ to the east. Winds on Tuesday will be tricky but decent for protected spots and strong from the W/NW, but come Wednesday we'll see fresh to strong W/SW tending SW winds, creating poor conditions. There's a chance for an early W'ly on the Surf Coast for very experienced surfers but it will be large and raw.
With the slow moving nature of the Long Wave Trough east later next week, winds will unfortunately linger from the SW on the backside of the swell into the rest of the week. One bonus is that the mountains will see plenty of snow to kick off the season.
Longer term we've got some new good SW groundswell on the cards later next weekend, but more on this Monday. Have a great weekend!