Craig

Great period with light winds from Sunday

Victorian Forecast by Craig Brokensha (issued Friday 25th January)

Best Days: Surf Coast Sunday, both coasts Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday morning

Recap

Fun waves on the beaches to the east of Melbourne yesterday with easing surf from 3ft range on the sets across the Mornington Peninsula and Phillip Island, small, weak and peaky on the Surf Coast.

This morning the swell has dropped right back leaving tiny waves across most spots (1-2ft Mornington Peninsula) with a hot and freshening northerly breeze. We’ll see a cooler onshore change early-mid afternoon so try and stay cool until then.

Today’s Forecaster Notes are brought to you by Rip Curl

This weekend and next week (Jan 26 – Feb 1)

The weekend will start poor, with no real size tomorrow morning and onshore SW winds across most locations. There’s an outside chance for lighter W/SW breezes around Torqua,y but the swell small to tiny.

Into the afternoon we should see our new long-period and inconsistent SW groundswell filling in, generated earlier this week in our far swell window. The Surf Coast should build to an inconsistent 3ft, if not for the odd sneaky bigger one near dark, with 4-5ft+ sets on the Mornington Peninsula. Winds won’t be too bad and only moderate out of the S’th so there should be some OK options for keen surfers.

Sunday is the day to surf though as the swell starts easing from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively under a light to moderate W/NW-NW offshore, freshening out of the W/SW-SW into the afternoon.

All in all though this swell will be the worst of the bunch for the coming period due to the lack of consistency.

Moving into next week and our good run of W/SW mid-period tending groundswell is on track, with an upgrade in size for the best pulse. The catalyst for this swell event will be a strong node of the Long Wave Trough moving in very slowly from the west from this evening.

With this we’ll see an initial relatively weak polar front project up towards WA and the under the Bight, generating strong W/SW winds. A fun mid-period W/SW swell will be generated by this front alone, but a stronger mid-latitude front will race in on top of the active sea state and generate an additional fetch of W/SW gales Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

This will boost the size and strength of the swell due on Monday, with the mid-period energy arriving just ahead of the groundswell into the afternoon.

We should see the Surf Coast building from 3ft in the morning, more to 4ft into the afternoon (if not for the odd bigger one at magnets), with building surf to 6ft+ on the Mornington Peninsula.

On the backside of these initial fronts a much stronger mid-latitude storm will develop, forming into a deep low resulting in a fetch of severe-gale W/NW winds moving through our swell window with core winds reaching storm-force (pictured right).

A larger long-period W/SW groundswell will be generated, filling in Tuesday afternoon and building to 4-5ft+ late on the Surf Coast and 6-8ft on the Mornington Peninsula.

Wednesday looks a touch smaller with the swell fading through the end of the week.

Looking at the local winds and Monday looks great with variable tending locally offshore winds, giving into S’ly sea breezes, similar Tuesday though with a touch more NE tendency.

Wednesday looks similar again, though we’ll review this on Monday. So all in all there should be real good quality waves on offer across the state from Sunday. Have a great weekend!

Comments

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 11:38am

Time to feast !

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 11:54am

Oh yeh baby, bring it on.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 12:14pm

“Sunday is the day to surf though as the swell starts easing from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively under a light to moderate W/NW-NW offshore, freshening out of the W/SW-SW into the afternoon.“

You forgot the asterisk Craig.

* for the West Coast ;)

I am the bone

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 12:28pm

This is correct.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 12:36pm

Yeh but we shouldn't baby feed the masses, my personal opinion is that SN should only state the general forecast specifics but definatly not suggest when and where to go. It's already gonna be a complete sh%# fight over here with the long weekend alone.

Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone's picture
Nick Bone commented Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 12:49pm

Mate, if you don’t know what coast too head too when it’s Westerly, you’ld need an I.V drip, not a spoon feeding.

I am the bone

greyhound's picture
greyhound's picture
greyhound commented Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 2:21pm

Totally agree with you big G. Just info on swell and wind is all that’s required.

southey's picture
southey's picture
southey commented Monday, 28 Jan 2019 at 3:37pm

Maybe Craig is on the take though .
I never did and definitely can’t now read these forecasts .
But by the sounds of it you guys were complaining about Sunday being the call .
Well for me today was always going to be “the “ day . Winds abating at 10pm last night & Bouys confirmed it 5am this morning . More Sth in the swell etc etc .
Anyway this morning was clean and fun , the tide starting to run out did its thing .
And around 9-930 when all the surf forecast update guys rocked up . The chocolates had been had . Swell looked to get more consistent and longer period closer to noon .
And lastly to the bloke I foam climbed over , if it’s any consolation to what I presume was a light knock that will bruise tonight . One of my fin plugs are now damaged .
Still happy though was reasonably orderly early . Happy days - thanks Crag.

" SA's Reserve Capacity "

Craig's picture
Craig's picture
Craig commented Monday, 28 Jan 2019 at 3:41pm

I was treating the FC notes above as a weekend section, then a seperate Monday-Friday period. Forgot it was a Long Weekend for the majority :p

Here's what I wrote in respect to the weekend.. "Sunday is the day to surf though as the swell starts easing from 3ft and 4-5ft respectively under a light to moderate W/NW-NW offshore, freshening out of the W/SW-SW into the afternoon.

All in all though this swell will be the worst of the bunch for the coming period due to the lack of consistency."

VicRhino's picture
VicRhino's picture
VicRhino commented Friday, 25 Jan 2019 at 1:41pm
pittsy's picture
pittsy's picture
pittsy commented Sunday, 27 Jan 2019 at 11:18am

Watched winki for 30 mins around 9am after surfing elsewhere, sat at the lookout and observed the following:

Counted 67 heads bobbing, around 30ish tightly clustered at uppers the rest scattered down the line. Of these roughly 1/4 looked out of place (fluffed takeoff, going left, not making any section)

Every wave I watched had at least 1 drop in, most around 2 and the max was 5.

The only solo wave I watched went to a shredder who was fanging down the line and top to bottom.

It was about 2-3 ft, looked really fun, but the ROI seems kind of crazy. Not unexpected but interesting to see the crowd continue to grow as the morning went on

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Sunday, 27 Jan 2019 at 11:19am

Sure it's crowded but there are some small clean runners for everyone and super warm water, too hot in a spring suit.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 27 Jan 2019 at 2:57pm

How can you be positive about that situation?!

Did you miss the bit where he said at least 1 drop in on EVERY wave, up to 5 sometimes.
Sorry I’m not trying to be a negative nelly but that is fucked and not my idea of fun

Blowin's picture
Blowin's picture
Blowin commented Sunday, 27 Jan 2019 at 3:44pm

Would you rather wake up to the same 30 knot onshore you went to bed with , only now you’re sleep deprived and your hands have a residual scent of shit to them that you just can’t seem to wash off ?

And the shit’s not yours.

Apologies to any new dad’s out there , you’ve probably had enough of your own midnight shit adventures and crying without my adding to it.

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Sunday, 27 Jan 2019 at 5:47pm

Well to be fair GF, we're talking Winki, in summer, on a long weekend, after all the web sites have all dictated where and when everyone should surf, what did you think was gonna happen? I surfed another break just over a stones throw away from 08:00 -10:30 and didn't have any major issues getting runners?? I did however have to dodge many beginners on every wave.

goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot's picture
goofyfoot commented Sunday, 27 Jan 2019 at 4:31pm

If that question is directed to me then yes, I would. Then I’d go surf an onshore waves with 3 people out and no cunt dropping in

pigdog's picture
pigdog's picture
pigdog commented Sunday, 27 Jan 2019 at 6:33pm

67 wow i have counted 45+ on more than a dozen times ! its def not a wave you would surf on a sat or sunday @2-3 foot with nw it is brain damage as nice as the wave is.........i have counted 200 at jan juc about 6 years ago on a weekend that included every cat and dog with a board though. is it true greenmount can get up to 250 in the lineup

Walk around G's picture
Walk around G's picture
Walk around G commented Monday, 28 Jan 2019 at 10:06am

Another day of clean 2-3ft runners, similar to yesterday but a little less crowded. A little pulse starting to show.......